Met1985

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The GFS is awful. When you are behind the Canadian it's a real shame. Idk why our supercomputers can't come up with better data/modeling. 

Seems like with each "update" the model just gets worse.

18z gfs ens looks good. Remember the longer in time the smoother the composites are.

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Been seeing more and more talk about a major SSW on the way. This by no means is a unicorn but would greatly enhance blocking towards the first of March.

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I would suggest people look at the models verification scores recently also.  The OP GFS has been horrible.  Just putting that data out there.

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's easy to get under your skin

There's just been a ton of shit posting. 

Things look fine. Get the cold in here and something will hit. Too much energy flying around. The cold air is coming.

42 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

We can't even win in fantasy land

You just did on the 06z! WTF are you smoking?

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

That was admittedly a fun run. One of those classic storms where if it’s coming down hard, it’s paste, if it’s not, it’s drizzle. 
 

The pattern change seems to be firm at this point but I do wish we could just see a better signal for an anchoring high over the top. That run had a moderately strong high over the high plains but that’s not typically going to cut it. Of course, too early to parse details about the threat at this point but at least the signal has been there for days. 

GAWX has been posting some exceptional stuff this winter. I'd follow him and the analogs especially this year considering we are in a NINO and it's facts that NIÑOS are back loaded.  

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Major Winter Storm again from the 06 GFS for PD for Northern NC/VA

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Yeah I just posted it. 18 inches for Asheville and several inches for the piedmont. 

00z EPS looks fine.

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06z GEFS looks workable.

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There looks to be potential in the prime of this pattern change.

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A bit down the road.

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There is a lot of potential showing up.

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Yeah big snow for VA. There are signs folks could see some snow outside the mountains.

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I thought this was the mid range thread instead a thread to shit all over it? Some of yall in here are unbelievable and mods feel free to move if needed.

16 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

We are grasping at straws.  It's over, folks.

Then go to the sanitarium thread.

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If I had a dollar every time the Weeklies were wrong I could have a great time at the local strip club 

They have been decent this season as well. Sure they didn't get the cold right for this time period but they have been pretty good this season. As you should know cold doesn't always equat to snow.

Eps looks great today.

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Weeklies into March.

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Weeklies look great. This is the 25th which is right around the corner.

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Yeah honestly the hell with just posting shit to be opposite of cold and snow. 

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's not going to be fun lol

You need to move to Aspen Colorado. 

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The potential isn’t going away folks. Rather, it is persisting and as we get closer it is increasing. The potential on the 6Z GEFS for widespread significant wintry precip during a portion of Feb 15-20 in NC and more specifically from a classic Miller A GOM originating low throughout a large portion of the SE during a portion of Feb 17-20 is about as high as I can remember on any GEFS in recent years when looking out 11-16 days. When I consider not only the actual panels of the run but also similar model runs of the last few days along with the progged solid +PNA/-EPO/-AO, neutral to -NAO, a persistent 50/50 low, a strong El Niño related subtropical jet/split flow, and moderate+ Nino mid to late Feb climo, it is hard to hold in my enthusiasm for what MAY occur. And it is always a matter of what MAY and never nowhere near what WILL when looking out 11-16 days. The MAY is why we have these forecast discussion threads as opposed to nonexistent crystal ball threads.

Classic split flow:

 

Many members with Miller A GOM/off SE coast lows:

Yes sir Larry! Everything looks good from an overnight perspective of things. Looking at the big picture.

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It would be more promising with agreement from the EPS. 

The EPS looks fine starting around the 13th. Classic west coast ridge east coast trough.