Met1985

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, shifted a bit North with main area. 

Yeah but as we've seen this season there has been a late shift south the last 24 hours before an event so we will see. We could be shafted also lol.

Gfs and euro. Not as robust but workable.

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This has always been an interesting period right after the front passes. Might be a surprise period before the little clipper system. I think the HRRR has been the best short range model this season.

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27 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The energy is trending north on the short range models and GFS was north  at 12Z

The energy has been north but we have less expansion of precipitation across our area with today's models.  Any chance I think most will be happy about.  I think this is going to be right along the border areas. 

Yeah the 06z gfs looks really good.

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Euro still solid.

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Might just be a bit of a surprise down east.

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Gfs steady as she goes.

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00z NAM. Not a bad look. I know it's not ground breaking but hey I'll take whatever I can get.

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After a beautiful day temp down to 37 already. 

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

The mean has been aiming basically skipping the cold phases for the longest time and dont seem to be backing down

This is probably correct. 

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed. The one exception this winter was in late Dec, when they were still predicting mainly mild for that mid Jan week that was then just over two weeks out and that turned out to be the coldest of the winter. What an odd curve ball that was. Some areas predicted on this map to be +5 for that week ended up -20 instead!

 

Yeah a lot of the country was in a down winter. I know it's all my back yard stuff but we've had record low snowfall across the entire country,  record low snow-covered,  and record low great lakes ice cover. 

We are literally 3 days away from a little event and the NWS has nothing.  We have the NAM, EURO, and gfs showing something.  Strange but maybe they are jaded like us this winter lol.

The weeklies had done pretty good until we hit the later half of January then they just latched onto the non existing blocking.  I do know there is another SSW coming soon but we will see. 

18z NAM at range but just showing it's picking up on this also.

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18z gfs still looking good.

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12z euro still looking wintery.

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A little bit down the road.

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This weekends snow still looks good.

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5 hours ago, WxKnurd said:

Funky inversion this morning, low-mid 20’s valley, mid 30’s in the say 3600-4000’ range and then back down around 30 above that it seems looking at weather stations in the area.  35 at my place.

Had a low here of 21. Crazy how inversions Like that work. And how big of a difference there is from mountain to mountain. 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry for the OT guys, but worthwhile read during this down time for anyone struggling with addiction, or who knows someone who is.

https://45pedrospupils.blogspot.com/2024/02/a-decade-of-reflections-on-my-recovery.html

Thank you for sharing.  Alcohol addiction runs in my family.  I've seen it rip families apart. 

00z gfs a bit more robust.

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18z a little more robust with the 25th system.

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49 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

The good news is the Ski Areas are doing much better than last year. Cataloochee has been making snow throughout this week and with additional snow on the way for the weekend, we will not see them closing as February ends like last year! 

Our nights since Saturday have been great for snow making. 

29 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Why should we believe these weeklies now for March?  Color me skeptical at this point

 

Because we are supposed to be going into spring and it wouldn't surprise me if we finally got blocking and we had a crap spring.