NC_hailstorm

Temps over the last 320 days or so.Good chunk still below normal,some places a little above.Carry on.

First 10 days of August temperatures.

GSP  -0.5

HKY  +0.4

AVL  +0.7

RDU  -0.7

GSO  +0.6

CAE  +0.3

CLT  +1.9 (yeah whatever)

12z Euro came in a good bit wetter than 0z and looks more closer to the GFS at day 7-10,just something to watch for but the GFS has even bigger totals.

1st day of the month and here we go again with temps.

GSP  0.0

HKY  +0.5

AVL  -1.0

RDU  -1.0

GSO  -0.5

CAE  -0.5

AND

CLT  +2.5

Final July temp numbers

GSP +0.3

HKY +1.0

AVL +2.0

RDU +1.5

GSO +1.5

CAE +0.5

CLT +3.0 (yeah whatever)

Monthly temps

GSP +0.5

HKY +1,1

AVL +2.3

RDU +2.0

GSO +1.8

CAE +1.3

CLT still running high with their bogus looking temps, +3.4.Carry on.

Still amazes me how that CLT temp can always run high,they are at +4.8 for the month and much higher than anyone in the area.Looks suspect to me spitting that out,carry on.

HKY-+2.4

GSP-+1.8

AVL- +3.8

RDU- +3.2

GSO- +3.3

FAY- +3.2

ILM-+3,1

CAE- +2,0

The Euro and Ukie both have something day 5 in the eastern gulf.The track is still in question but there could be some heavy rain especially on the eastern side of this crawling slowly north somewhere.

Today's total on the Euro day 10

Looks like we'll get some fairly potent MCS action over the next 24 hours.The HRRR has the first arriving overnight with two more crossing Saturday afternoon.

Damaging winds the big issue most likely,they are really flying moving SE.

Heavy rain setting up over the Catawba Co/Hickory area again.

Additional rainfall amounts of two inches are possible in the warned
area. Extensive urban flooding is expected across the Hickory area
through the middle part of the evening. The water will rise very
quickly across Hickory because of the rainfall that happened last
night.

 At 1055 PM EDT, Flash flooding will continue around greater
  Hickory as additional rounds of heavy rainfall overspread the
  region.  In addition, with rainfall totals piling up all across
  the unifour, flash flooding is likely to expand in coverage as
  well.  In several parts of the warned area, rainfall this evening
  has totaled as much as 6 inches, and localized additional one to
  three inches of rain could fall into the late night hours.

Some places could get 7-9 inches tonight with a pile more coming this weekend.

5 day totals on the Euro today.

Ukie bringing it on today's run,6 day totals.

Seasonal forecasts on the Euro for the summer,2m temps and Heights for the next 3 months.

Euro continues to ramp up the precip,GFS similar.

Lower heights/trof return tomorrow,death ridge being weakened and pushed back out.Better rain chances begin around day 6 on the Euro,GFS is similar.

Let's make it 7 in a row shall we,what another shocking coincidence.

CME rotation 2/21-3/2 meaning the MJO will stall/weaken/loop or pull to Maritime around 3/2 -3/8 and that's exactly what MJO forecasts look like around 3/7-3/9.Gonna  be a full 15 day lag on this one,sometimes it's 9 or 10.

Pretty map today.

Right on 5'' for the last 7 days,pile of water everywhere.

Looks like this big cutter coming through this weekend will flip the pattern finally and put the low heights,PV on our side of the hemisphere.

MJO has a good chance running out to 3/8 or 3/9 considering this sun rotation is coming much,much weaker than the previous one,first 10 days or so in March are in play IMO.

And look at that,the MJO forecasted to stall,weaken Feb.3-4 with the loop de loop(representing a pull to the Maritime Continent)and reemerge around Feb.11th-12th.What a coincedence.

That makes 6 straight coronal hole rotations with the same result if this one happens,let me say that again 6 straight times over the last 120 days or so.

And here's a clue for later,this same coronal hole will rotate back in Feb.20th-Mar 1st meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime Mar1st-Mar.6th,reemerge Mar.10th-Mar.15th.

Everything ENSO related will be amplified in the Solar Grand Minimum this century,these so called "experts" might still be in denial or can't cope or comprehend the magnitude of solar wind,CME's,,cosmic rays,etc.

Just my opinion.

Coronal hole rotating in today (Jan.24th-Feb.3rd) meaning the MJO will stall,weaken,or get pulled to the Maritime around Feb.2nd-Feb 7th given a 9-14 day lag on this.It should reemerge around Feb.11th-Feb 16th given another 9-14 day lag after the rotation ends(Feb.2nd).

MJO should progress and tick stronger the next 10 days solar wind was pretty low Jan.8th-Jan 23rd,should get to p7 maybe p8.

Just my opinion.

All you want to do is hit the target somewhere more than half the time with all these models,model runs,ensembles,etc.You won't hit a bullseye with every run that's gonna come through here but enough hits keeps you in the hunt.

Inside 48 hours is when you wanna start aiming for bullseyes.

Just my opinion.

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

Wave is digging nicely into Texas.  It would struggle to round the bend with that look, but I prefer the south/suppressed look at this juncture

Agree I'll take that look at day 6 on the Ukie.These heights usually bump north with time and the trajectory of them are more southwest-northeast at day 6 then day 5.

Ukie has a 1011 low in far south Texas at day 6,pretty low heights across the southeast.