NC_hailstorm

Ukie has been putting down some big totals the last few runs.That's 50'' south of Wilmington.

Ukie day 4

Euro has a wicked squall line coming through the W.Piedmont/central NC around 129-138.Looks to be what's left of the eyewall and might be the worst of it for those areas.

10 minutes ago, Duncana12 said:

Could someone post up the EURO total rainfall map for western NC. Thanks

Euro at day 6

Euro,Ukie and FV3(3 highest performing models)look pretty close now,think we're close to our track now.

Euro with a big shift east getting in line with the other two,its stiil a tick too far west while the Ukie is still a tick too far east in my opinion.

Have to say the FV3 has been really good on this storm so far.

Ukie is a hit a little north of Wilmington around Jacksonville at day 5,in between the Euro and GFS runs.

GFS is basically not worth looking at past day 5,day 4 and in it does get better and carry some weight.

The difference is around hour 72-96,the GFS pulls the 594dm death ridge out sooner along the VA,MD coast giving it room to stay east.The Euro holds the 594dm death ridge in longer and lets it steer more west.I would look for a middle of the road compromise here in my opinion,a stall out is possible too because of no steering currents once it gets to the coast either.

Carry on.

Less ridging on today's runs,the 594dm death ridge gone after day 5/6.off the coast.

Still enough to get an landfall but should go east if this is correct.Have to watch for trends,nothing settled yet.

7 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

We’ll know in 24 hours!

Yep the latest Ukie has it south of Charleston now at 144,close to the GA border.It's also pushing the 594dm death ridge further west covering all of VA and northern N Carolina then too

It's not making a hard right if that's there in my opinion.

Euro has the 594dm death ridge closer to the VA/NC coast this run,Ukie has it even stronger and further south.Ukie looks like it would be a further south hit if it went out another day.

Euro 156,its south of 0z.trend is still south and it might continue.

0z Euro at hour 162,big wind gusts/rain up through the piedmont on this run.Landfall at Myrtle Beach.

Charlotte hit 94 today,Columbia hit 97.Forecasts were off 3-5 degrees too cool as the death ridge hammers down.

Today was probably the hottest,tomorrow might get warm but heights ease back on the Euro with better precip chances.Still no cool pattern but it's better than this death ridge parked right over us.

Carry on.

Euro day 7

This could still tick a bit more west in my opinion,a 594dm death ridge is very strong heights,not a run of the mill 582 or even 588.

Euro model still dominates the forecast performance with the Ukie 2nd as usual.  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/      (click height on the left}

The new FV3GFS is actually running 2nd but its still in experimental mode.Starting early next year the GFS will get this upgrade and should be a lot better.

"The next generation of GFS, FV3 GFS, is currently undergoing evaluation and the plan is to put it into production in Q2FY19 (January to March, 2019) as GFS v15.0. This next version of GFS represents a major change from the existing version."

Flo hits the 591-594 death ridge at day 7/8 and is forced west/southwest,that could be a N Florida/Ga/SC hit.

If the strong death ridge is there it has to go west/southwest it's not turning north.

14 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Each of the last two GFS runs show a significant cool front pushing south from the north central part of the country down to the SE starting around the 13th. The 18z never quite gets it here, but it is definitely there. The 0z pushes lots of greens all the way to the gulf west of the apps. Darn thing doesn't make it east of the mtns with the nighttime lows, but cools daytime highs into the 60s for many. As we've said, it's the long range GFS, so specifics are pointless, but it can be good at indicating patterns or changes; let's see how it trends.

 

Euro has the 594dm death ridge squarely on NC/SC for the next 4-5 days.Charlotte hit 93 yesterday and Columbia hit 96,I think we can match them temps this week.Good news is the heights back off after that but not a cool pattern though,better chance for a front to get closer probably.Euro pushes the 594 death ridge out in the Atlantic and tries to steer a hurricane up the eastern seaboard at day 9-10.

.22'' overnight

9.16'' for the month

The 591-594 dm death ridge holding strong thru day 10 on the latest Euro runs.

Gotta love it.

20 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Lol at the guys on the other forum freaking out on some OP runs of the GFS showing mid 90s for end of Aug/early Sept! GFS ALWAYS has a heat bias in summer, this time of year is not climo for major heat waves (heat yes, but not long sustained heat approaching 100 like they are saying, and those SAME GFS runs are showing significantly cooler temps by labor day. Too funny ! 

Everyone enjoy the first hint of fall the next couple of days and we'll see more of these in a couple weeks!

Last 3 Euro runs haven't been pushing the death ridge out though,actually strengthening it.Euro has it locked at day 10 today to almost Labor day but we'll see,the trend has been for lower heights in the SE most of the summer.

Euro has the 591-594dm death ridge over us by day 4 and lasts to day 8,probably the hottest weather all summer but the moisture in the ground will help some.

Euro pushes the death ridge west day 9-10 and lower heights come back on latest runs.

.46 tonight 

8.94'' for the month

Early morning t-storm dropped another .76

8.48'' for the month 

13.08'' over the last 30 days

Close lightning this evening,1.64'' total from a slow moving t-storm

7.72'' for the month

After some lower heights/cooldown next week the dreaded 594dm death ridge may make an appearance.Euro been showing this at day 8-10 the last few runs so it may get toasty.

Since when is 90-92 degree temps considered a "scorcher" and "oppressive" in summertime NC? Basically if it's around 90 for 3 months it's NORMAL.But if you watch local news it's the name stuff over and over and over every evening telling you you're gonna roast if you go out.It's really obvious who's lived here for any amount of time and who hasn't,some people still think they're in Cleveland I think.

If and when I see temps 97-104 for a week or two then we can talk but this stuff is way over the top,rainfall definitely hasn't been a problem we all know that.

Anyway I'm done ranting.