NC_hailstorm

And the wind driven sleet storm continues, 24.6

About 4'' 

12 Z Canadian is a good hit,phased storm.

Raging sleet storm in progress,21.9

3'' total snow/sleet

Snow and 22.1

2'' total 

And why not here comes the big dog at hour 294-300 lol

18z GFS tried for another around day 8/9 but wide right.Euro/Canadian had a similar look,wide right but close enough to watch.

18Z GFS coming in with a phased storm,looks like Euro and Canadian. at day 5/6

Carry on.

Another big phaser day 5-6,Euro and Canadian look identical.

2 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

Hilarious how these snow maps line up with climo and history. I can't tell you how many times Hickory got a 10 inch storm (aka 8 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet) while the the western foothills and anyone above say 2000 ft got the 12-18 inches of mostly snow. 

Agree it looks like the 6-8'' snow/sleet with a raging sleet storm at some point with freezing rain to end it in my area.Usually west of I 85 and north of HWY 73 around here locally is the dividing line,seen it many times.

Just my opinion.

The monster is lurking,told ya.

18'' for me lol

Bombs away lol.

Should get a nice cold week here with lows well below or around freezing in most locations.Every flake has a chance to stick.

Carry on.

Euro ALMOST phases that Baja low at 192,maybe a partial one.Still get 2 nice storms but that's the monster if it phases.

Playing with dynamite lol.

January temps so far,first couple days were extremely warm.

AVL  +2.1

CLT  +6.7

GSP  +4.3

HKY  +5.3

GSO  +5.3

RDU  +5.5

FAY  +5.8

CAE  +5.4

GFS phases the two streams as did the Canadian did yesterday,then you get the monster.

Well I only get 20'' this run,Triad lollipops around 30''.Might wanna save this one too lol.

I think the monster showed up again today,GFS 12z 252-264 hour  lol

 Positive AAM is better for higher latitude blocking. Blocking is more prevelant during El Ninos (+AAM) rather than La Ninas (-AAM) during the winter time and this is related to the location of tropical forcing.

Key word here is location of the tropical forcing (MJO)If this is good blocking can still be achieved meaning you want p8,p1.p2,sometimes p7 if in January.Plus the SOI is hinting more El Ninoish lately (-7.63 today)

The AAM weakened but has leveled off and is ticking back upwards and is still plenty positive.I have my own opinion what drives this but I think it can stay positive most of the month.It may dip again after Jan 16-18th but not drop to negative,patterns often get stuck in low solar as well.

Just my opinion.

The UKMET has something cooking on day 6,snow breaking out over western NC.

Looks like the Jan2nd monster showed up on the 240 Canadian also today.

I think the January 2nd monster made another appearance tonight(hour 270, GFS18Z )Off the coast but he's still alive.

Well the GFS in fantasy land,la la land(hour 360) has the monster that beats them all today.Might wanna save that one see some 30'' to 40'' totals.

Watch that shortwave on the west coast,rockies,plains around day 4/5.if that can dig a bit more could be a big hit its going to run right into that cold dome pressing down.

Carry on.

Solar wind the last 4 days

402-682

511-694

507-641

436-597

Strongest levels since very early November,should get a few more active days(Dec.27th-30th)coming.Low solar usually leads to a sluggish jet stream,things get bogged down,patterns get stuck.This might be enough to kick things along,we'll see plus phase 7 MJO is usually cold in the east but that -PNA is a beast.The +AAM might weaken but you need something to kickstart a flip.

Just my opinion.

Just looking at the MJO,phase 7 in December is typically warm in the east but phase 7 in January turns colder shown here.

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

But you're dealing with a strong,dug in, -PNA this time and like i said before the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do.