NC_hailstorm

Euro at day 5/6 looks better today but we need a couple more ticks NW to get the mountains/foothills a little more.Let's hope this chance works out this time.

A warm 30 days in September is gonna skew the numbers for the summer..GSP for example for JJA.

GSP

June  -0.8

July  +0.3

August  -0.1

Hot month but CLT wins the hottest spot on the planet again.

GSP  +7.1

HKY  +6.7

AVL  +7.2

RDU  +4.9

GSO  +6.2

CAE  +6.2

AND

CLT  +7.9

Renegade t-shower somehow came over this evening.

0.36''

Best looking precip map I've seen in about 6 or 7 weeks,Euro gets wetter after day 7 dropping in a strong shortwave and lowering the heights.

Hot month,CLT still in the lead as usual.

GSP  +5.6

HKY  +5.5

AVL  +6.0

RDU  +3.2

GSO  +4.8

CAE  +4.6

AND

CLT  +6.6

I would also watch the the gulf stream very closely and the AMOC(Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)This has been a hotspot to watch from about Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod maybe a bit further into Canada.

Solar minimum weakens the circulation,moving it further south in my opinion.2009-10 is a prime example to what to look for and QBO flipped to negative halfway through that year.Cut off the gulf stream and you most likely get colder.

http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/~tezer/PAPERS/2015_GPC_AMOC_SL.pdf

Why is it we're getting the biggest solar wind flareups in September lately?

2017- 760 km/s

2018- 758 km/s

2019-872 km/s

Could be coincidence,,could be some sort of new cycle.

There's a realistic chance I might get a 0.00 for September on rainfall,not even a trace.Just checking the 10 day forecast and don't see anything.

Terribly dry here grass burned up,leaves dropping.

The QBO has been positive for 10 straight months with the last reading at 9.97 for August,peaking in May at 14.59 so trending down.Interesting to see if it can flip to negative before winter which would be good.

Euro going colder west/warmer east for now for DJF.

Warm month so far but CLT still hottest on the planet,Carry on.

GSP  +5.5

HKY  +5.0

AVL  +5.3

RDU  +2.9

GSO  +4.4

CAE  +5.4

AND

CLT  +6.5

KCHS

 69.0 mph (11:49 EDT 09/05)

I'd say the HRRR is doing very well on this since late Sundays runs,moving this NW. then almost due north and well of the coast so far.

That HWRF or whatever you call it looks horrible,slamming this into central Florida for almost 3 days.Pitiful just pitiful.

UKMET with a hit now at Morehead City/Havelock

Not sure how good or bad the HRRR is on tropical stuff but you can definitely see the NW turn around hour 18-24 on the 0z run.Then it looks almost due north hour 30-36 and well off the coast.

Just an observation.

UKMET still offshore barely.

GFS into Morehead City/Havelock.Rain shield further west with 5''into RDU this run.

FINAL August temps.CLT is still the hottest place on the planet apparently.

GSP  -0.1

HKY  0.0

AVL  +1.1

RDU  -0.1

GSO  +0.4

CAE  +1.5

AND

CLT  +2.0

Still some 40mph gusts getting back in the W.Piedmont on the Euro.Higher the further east you go.

Euro further east today,eastern NC still gets hit by heavy rain.

GFS has that sharp cutoff in today's run as well.Someone could get  15''-20''

Euro shifts the heavy rain shield further west this run.

The Euro has 591dm heights over all  of NC,SC,and the eastern half of GA at day 4.It isn't the 594dm death ridge but that is plenty strong and will force it west,it's not coming too far north if it's right.

Heights weaken at day 5 over these areas  but its already into FLA by then.Timing and strength of the heights are still in question though.

Temp update through Aug.26th.Couple spots have an outside shot at a below month.

GSP  +0.4

HKY  +0.6

AVL  +1.6

RDU  +0.2

GSO  +0.7

CAE  +2.0

CLT  +2.6 (good grief)

Thru Aug,20th,the temp update

GSP  +1.1

HKY  +1.6

AVL  +2.3

RDU  +0.9

GSO  +1.8

CAE  +2.6

And everyone's favorite..

CLT  +3.5 (C'MON MAN)