NC_hailstorm

All I know is that -PNA is strong,deep,and negative.It's going to take quite a jolt to dislodge that feature to get to a better pattern.We'll see.

+AAM is the highest today since mid July readings.Have my own opinion what drives this though.

Feburary was a big +AAM month,central/eastern US was very cold.

May was another +AAM month,another cold central/eastern US

July was another +AAM month,another below normal temps for central/eastern US

Carry on.

Pattern change is probably more believe able considering the MJO forecasts moving into p7 and p8 in 10-14 days.Also the AAM is forecasted to rise and I believe it will till the end of the month.But the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do so just observe.

Sorta cold today,high 45.1 low 27.7,overcast all day.

Next 7 days or so look quiet,GFS and Euro both bringing down an arctic front around day 8/9.Euro runs a big storm up the front,GFS just a frontal passage but the air behind looks plenty cold.

Afterwards you're just watching for shortwaves to interact with the cold air,both models have something but impossible to pin down this far out.Also when I see the 582-585dm pushing all the way up into Oregon/Washington I start watching.   Eyes open.

Fairly strong shortwave in Manitoba diving SSE around day 6,probably needs it to dig more west to have a shot but still fun to watch.It's not impossible to get a dusting/inch,or a rain/snow mix in late November but looks like a cold shot even without a storm.

29.8 this morning

41.6 here at a little past 1 pm,cold and damp.

Cold front has arrived here after a high of 79.9,couple sprinkles and a wind shift out of the WNW.Should get a nice cooldown this evening.

Looks like the GFS and Euro are going for a fairly strong CAD around day 6/7.Seeing a 1030-1040 HP in southeast Canada.

Euro and GFS both show a nice cool down around day 6/7 with a fairly strong cold front. Seeing the 564 dm pressing into parts of NC,impressive for late September.

Seeing some low/mid 50's dew point after Ida passes by on day 5/6 on the GFS/Euro today.

Relief is in sight.

3.49'' for the week so far.

2.44'' for the week so far,might get a little more with another rain band about to cross.

97.9 so far,ticking back slightly now but its warm today.

.32''  for the month on rain,cells come very close though within a mile or two lately but that's it.

12Z runs of the Euro,Ukie,and Canadian all have heavy rain in Western/west central NC.GFS still the only holdout.

12Z Euro looks similar to the Ukie in my opinion.

Looks like the 0z Euro still has a swath of heavy rain but more towards the west this run.

12z Ukie had good precip up in most of NC,GFS doesn't have much as the others.Waiting on the 12z Euro.

Euro is putting down some big totals in western/central NC,bout 6''-12'' of rain on day 6/7.

GFS/Ukie have rain but nothing that big.

Light/Moderate snow here solid dusting ,cars covered.Roads still look wet only.

32.2

Mostly snow here,could be a touch of rain though.Sticking on cars.

33.4

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Need to save this run for the archives. Agreed, might be the best I’ve ever seen

The GOAT of all runs lol.

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I definitely just saved that lol

Me too.

Snow showers here

43.3

Yep cotton balls flying around,Dusting here.