NC_hailstorm

-Solar wind and QBO still tracking similar to 2009-10 levels(387 km/s for this month,EEP 5-7)Solar is still trending lower every month.

-MJO tracking almost identical to 09-10.The 09-10 year had the stall/loop de loop TWICE that winter in phase 7,once in early DEC 09 before producing,another in Mid January too.To add more evidence Dec 17 also had the stall/loop de loop early in the month,before producing.Don't be surprised if we get another here soon but the question for me is if it's 5 days 10 days?In the end the MJO eventually gets through so we'll see.

-Strat is also coming in very identical to 09-10 now.High levels of solar wind and EEP levels strengthen the polar vortex so it's not surprising the PV is getting weakened and split with these very low levels now.

Been saving this for 8 or 9 years,here's FEB 4th 2010 forecast at 10mb.I'm seeing plenty of these lately so carry on.

Anyone notice how well the GFS has been running the last 31 days for the Northern Hemisphere?it's past the Ukie and at 144 even more of a difference.Right now may be the closest I've ever seen to the Euro in scoring so it might be worth looking at day 5 and 6 for a while.

Hit the go button on the top left beside height   http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Euro and Ukie look good at day 6 and 7 bringing down the first shot of the hammer,it's right on time.Solar,QBO,MJO,Strat look favorable for a cold spell.

Also I don't think you'll have to wait to hit phase 8 of the MJO to get in the thick of it,phase 7 will and has produced.Using 2009-10 as a guide and what happened in Dec:

Dec 18-19 2009 storm   phase 7

Jan 29-30 2010 storm  phase 7

Dec 8-9 2017 phase 7

3 times is not a fluke it's a trend in my opinion,when you have great signals everything gets pushed up quicker.if I were a betting man I'd watch around day 10  for something inbound.

Carry on.

In sort of a lull so let's see where we're at.Just comparing this to 09-10

Solar wind for January so far is 372.7,steadily dropping.Winter 09-10 averaged 330-340

EEP levels the last 30 or so days also dropping,reflecting the solar wind running between 5-7.09-10 ran 4.5 to 5

Last QBO reading was -18.12 ,09-10 was -16.02

So far I have 9'' for the year,09-10 I got 14.5'' 

When the MJO swings back around there's a chance the hammer drops again,this time with a strat boost taking the PV out or displacing it.Some believe the solar/QBO drive MJO but I can't say for sure.Just my opinion.

I see 3 days with some above average temps before the rain Monday night,rest of the week looks normal to me.Lows next week are 30,29,30,and 31 that's still pretty cold.

Enjoy the thaw.

3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Does this mean that we might have to worry about a warm nose at some point or is this a different type of setup?

Puts people more south and east at more risk,its a fine line.

Shortwave is trending slower(blocking) and digging more southwest.

More people have a chance if that trend continues.

I hear the term "no blocking,no blocking,no blocking" a lot.

Here's what no blocking is,Look at 2011-12 when you have AO,NAO levels running up the yazoo at +2,+3,and +4 for weeks and months.That's no chance at all and getting shutout,that's no blocking.

People obsessed with a raging AO,NAO can't even see a neutral one anymore.Negative states are preferred but a neutral one could and should deliver winter weather too.

Ukie has another big 1042 high dropping into MN at day 6 with a deep trof over the east.Might get a 3 or 4 day break from the cold.

56 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

@NC_hailstorm

Hey man, how's the solar stuff looking these days?

Solar signal is about average,not great but not terrible,December numbers are still trending slowly down on solar wind and EEP.it has kept the AO and NAO from raging positive though so that's been ok.

2009-10 had a solar wind average around 330-340 and EEP levels around 4.5 to 5,this year we're about at 400 with EEP levels around 6.5 to 7,5

Next couple years should be really good on solar if the research is right but the QBO might flip bad.

This so called La Nina is still getting chopped down,90 day average cut in half on the SOI.Could recover we'll see.

30 day 10.98 to -4.04

90 day 9.35 to 4.89

Heights still look pretty low in the SE for the next 10 days on the Euro.For years I've always used the 582dm height line for a barometer,if that's in central or S.Florida it won't get too warm usually.

We could see a few days late next week run slightly above normal though.Just my opinion.

Well Irma was supposed to hit eastern FLA,GA,and the Carolinas too 5 days out.It hit Cuba and ended up in Paducah kY.

Speaking in absolutes is foolish,just watch for trends.And ya know what?no one can predict the future no matter how convincing they sound.

Carry on.

SOI really tanking the last 30 days,pretty remarkable considering its a weak La Nina.Went from 10.40 to -1.64 in 30 or so days.Usually precip chances increase with a lowering but not yet.

There's usually a 15 day lag though so we'll see.

Ukie has a 1001 low right on Myrtle Beach at 72.Just from experience,that's a classic track for the I-85 corrider in western NC usually.

We'll see.

Ukie definitely is backing up the precip on this run for NC.

.5'' to the foothills with close to .75''- 1'' in the piedmont.

Euro missed the cold air press last week,finally caught on.Then it missed the shortwave separation for days till getting a clue.Now it could be missing the partial phase here at the end.It's srill the best model and will be right most of the time but not every time.

Carry on.