NC_hailstorm

Another heavy T -storm tonight, 1.52'' so far.

Right at 6'' for the month

Still no 594dm death ridges for at least 10 days heights still look low.Precip chances won't go away but there will be 2-3 day breaks with lesser chances.High humidity will be the main issue with all this water in the ground.

All drought in NC and SC gone except for a very small spot SE of CLT which is hard to believe.

Another good T-shower today  1.12''

3.56'' for August

Big total today 2.44'' moderate rain still falling.

No 594dm death ridge at least for the next 10 days.Heighs still look low giving better chances for precip and slightly cooler temps.

10 day Euro precip,most of this falls after day 4 in central/western parts of NC/SC/GA

The HRRR wants to form up another squall line west of I-95 in eastern NC, central/E SC early Sunday morning.Looks more scattered to the west in nature during the evening.

1 hour ago, Tanith said:

I came hurrying over here for that very reason. I was a little astounded to see that tornado watch to my northwest when there's nothing in GA yet. I do see some rather ugly storms up in TN, is that what they're worried about?

The squall like is still in KY heading south,HRRR still has it entering GA around daybreak.

Got some warnings in the NC mountains one the 1st line.

Looks like north/central Georgia could get a good squall line soon if the HRRR is correct.Tornado watch up for NW GA.

Very unusual this is more a mid April-May set up not the middle of simmer.Very low heights,cut off low way south.

44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

So, if we wanted the best combo for a cold and snowy winter, what would it look like [ex: solar wind below X, EEP levels at Y, Z years into the Solar Cycle (ascending? descending? max? min?), and + or - QBO (and is the QBO rising or falling?) + what ENSO configuration]?

Just looking at 09-10 and 10-11 winters,my best guess is you want the solar wind averaging less than 400 and EEP 5 and lower.Them 2 winters were very low in these categories.Also you want to be in solar min or the ascending phase for less solar wind and EEP.The other phases produce more coronal holes and them make a lot more solar wind and EEP.Declining phase is the worst,solar max has a weak signal.

Obviously you want the QBO negative,gotta have that.It's quite negative now but these things flip every 12-18 months sometimes shorter so just have to observe.

Still learning and observing myself.

On ‎7‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 9:49 PM, yotaman said:

And what exactly does that mean to the layman?

The sunspot level(spotless days)and solar flux have no correlation with climate or the weather if you look at data.Where people are uninformed is you have to look at the solar wind level,EEP levels(energetic electron precipitation)where you are in the 11 year solar cycle(ascending,descending,max,min)and the QBO level.

Basically a Solar/QBO signal,this has been researched and been somewhat accurate in my opinion.There's also ENSO that can influence the climate too

Euro day 7 today.Getting there but probably a bit underdone still.

Solar wind coming down the last 3 or 4 weeks after spiking up around 700 a few times in April and May,running around 280-450 or so lately.Big drop in the EEP levels too in the same time frame going from 9 to about 5 now.

QBO still ticking negative at -28.45

Just some observations I'm watching but carry on.

Euro day 7 totals.GFS is a bit more wetter as usual.

Don't see any 594dm death ridges for the next 10 days so that's the main thing for me.Looks like some lower heights and better rainfall chances coming around day 5 -10.

Ukie and the GFS are more east with the guidance,bringing a 997-1000 low up towards the big bend of Florida.Euro is more west bring it into New Orleans area.Both show some sort of stall though once inland so heavy rain could hit somewhere.

*6z GFS did shift west though close to Mobile,could be a trend.

Euro is still putting heaviest rain on I-77 and west,hour 84 below..GFS is still more widespread across NC/SC.

GFS spiting out some healthy rain totals lately,here's today at day 5.Euro not as aggressive east of I-77 but it's upping totals slowly.

Euro still has a decent squall line coming in Sunday.Euro at hour 84.

This is what you get when the solar/QBO is favorable,which leads to strong and persistent SSW's also.Pattern is trying to produce even this late into late March.

Other than the 3-4 week stretch in Feb,it was quite good this year,solar should be even better next winter but that QBO could flip which wouldn't be good.ENSO should be better though .

Hour 123,Euro upping it slowly.

Good hit on the Euro today roughly N of I 40 in NW N.Carolina up toward the border counties at hour 78.

3'-'6 with 10'' in the N mountains.

Ukie is further south at 72,1009 low in the Fla panhandle.

So what happened in February? I have my opinion.

-First off solar became very hostile over the last 3-4 weeks with solar wind and EEP shooting upwards.Once that went the pattern/cold went with it.Solar wind pushing 600 and EEP pushing +8 or +9,that's WAY too high.This was the main problem that threw everything out of whack in my opinion.

-MJO stalled and looped as well,plus it seemed like it couldn't fight the La Nina when it did move.

-SSW although a strong one happened about 2-3 weeks too late for us.We'll fell the effects starting this weekend into the next 2 weeks I'd say.

Pretty much on schedule to me,MJO showing the stall/loop de loop like I thought in p7.Did it 3 prior times counting 09-10 and last December.Looks like it's gong to take 10 days until it finally gets a kick in the pants to move though so we'll see.

The 09-10 produced snow here Mar 2nd but realistically we have to about Mar 10th to get a hit.Not impossible after that but it gets difficult.

Carry on.

If that PV splits the AO will tank,I'd watch that as well.NAO still in question depending where the PV goes.