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NC_hailstorm

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Everything posted by NC_hailstorm

  1. NC_hailstorm
    GFS is still going with the dig and dump solution out west day 7/8. EURO,Canadian,ICON,UK disagree at the moment and keep things progressive.
  2. NC_hailstorm
    Euro brings the big dog late in the run,good grief.
  3. NC_hailstorm
    There's also the 11 year solar lag response for NAO,AO.Also affects the Aleutian Low Doesn't guarantee cold other things have to be included as QBO,ENSO,and MJO and where they are. On average for eastern/central N America Lag 0 year-warm Lag 1 year -warm Lag 2 year -warm Lag 3 year warm Lag 4 year- cold (here now) Lag 5 year- cold Lag 6 year-cold Lag 7 year -cold Lag 8 year-cold Lag 9 year- neutral to cold Lag 10 year-warm Lag 11 year -warm
  4. NC_hailstorm
    Seen that,and the Euro is sorta honking too but not as big .Makes sense MJO coming into phase 8 around the new year.
  5. NC_hailstorm
    The PNA is very positive,AO is negative let's see what happens.
  6. NC_hailstorm
    Good grief a 972 low on the Canadian.
  7. NC_hailstorm
    Don't know if it's right but a hit on the Icon tonight.......
  8. NC_hailstorm
    Canadian might be a hit for western NC,foothills,western piedmont. Heck of a storm off the coast.
  9. NC_hailstorm
    Just from what I'm seeing at 144,the UKMET,ICON,and Canadian have more shortwave energy further north in CO,OK.and northern TX. Euro a tick south of there,GFS way way south of there. Oh and the GFS is scoring very poorly lately,way behind the other three. NOAA/NWS Headline Scores: ACC 31 Days
  10. NC_hailstorm
    Good news I have the S word in the forecast now Sunday Snow before 10am, then rain. High near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
  11. NC_hailstorm
    Yep that wacky 0z GFS is dropping that PV into the USA late in the run.
  12. NC_hailstorm
    Think that was the 1st Euro run that dropped the polar vortex into the USA,GFS has already had a few.
  13. NC_hailstorm
    Euro is bringing the hammer at day 7,polar vortex dropping into the upper midwest with strong ridging on the west coast.
  14. NC_hailstorm
    No worries the 18z GFS is going all 1899 again lol.
  15. NC_hailstorm
    The 12z GFS has a strat split/reversal up at 20mb at day 11.GaWx is right a technical SSW is a reversal at 10mb but anything above 30mb can shake up a pattern from what I've read.Carry on.
  16. NC_hailstorm
    Hmm,looked like the Canadian today was trying to go all 1899 late in the run.Every now and then you get a run from all models of a wicked cold shot but I'm not sure how far southeast it gets.
  17. NC_hailstorm
    Hmm,I see the GFS went all 1899 on us today.Might wanna save that one.
  18. NC_hailstorm
    The UK has the shortwave at day 6 in west central New Mexico,very close to the Canadian position maybe even a tick southwest of it.
  19. NC_hailstorm
    That's a large hit on the Canadian tonight,looks like the Euro.
  20. NC_hailstorm
    Agree. The fact that the GFS has some sort of low in the ballpark as the Euro/EPS is encouraging.Adjustments/tweaks can be made.
  21. NC_hailstorm
    Euro and EPS look pretty good at day 7- 8,even the GFS is similar with the low placement it's just too warm for frozen at the moment. MJO looks very favorable in about a week,(p8,p1)AO is still negative,and the NAO ticking to neutral.Time to track.
  22. NC_hailstorm
    Ukie looks like it might hit,little quicker than the GFS in regards to timing.
  23. NC_hailstorm
    1'' here,23.9 light snow.
  24. NC_hailstorm
    January temps updated. AVL 0.0 CLT +2.5 GSP +1.1 HKY +2.1 GSO +1.5 RDU +1.8 FAY +1.6 CAE +1.9
  25. NC_hailstorm
    0z UKMET looks like a hit day 5,little more east .
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