FLweather
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Can't say for sure. That Dorian is moving W/NW atm. Or just wobbling. But the eye is ever slightly NW of Freetown. They're back in the S/SE eyewall. That southern side looks rough via radar out of Nassau.
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The last couple of runs of nam been suspicious. Even the 12z nam3k continues a due north approach. Now the strength is even more... Atm. Initialize at 944. But has it dropping down to 913mb moving due north east of Titusville,fl. Sounds fishy.
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Dorian a cat4 155mph
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Not sure if weakening or going through EWR. But the eye looks ragged and has gotten bigger via radar out of the Bahamas. Definitely stationary atm. Just wobbling over Freetown.
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The Canadian definitely an outlier. Makes brief landfall near Titusville wobbled near Orlando then off the coast. But ever so slightly. Hugs the coast line.
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Dorian showing up on the radar in south FL.
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Those Islands not having any affect on Dorian at all! Some of the videos out of there makes my stomach turn. Feel sorry for them. Been watching this convection on the south/southwest side of storm. Watching and expecting to see some wobbles. 10 or 20 miles means TS force or Hurricane force here.
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Canadian model still makes landfall south of Titusville,FL @ 980 mb. Heads north. East of Orlando re emerges off of Palm Coast, Fl.
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So far major changes on the Canadian from 0z to 12z. 12z holds Dorian back near the Bahamas(Freeport). Slower, looks poised to do a sharp right turn.
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The 0z Canadian and Icon still show landfall in FL. Canadian follows 95 to about Charleston then goes back over water south of MB and Wilmington. I think it's safe to say it's going to curve. But when and where?
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Dorian a cat 5. 160 mph
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Typo? Or are they investigating what's over the Yucatan Peninsula ?
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Very good post. Another variable to the plot would be how strong of a trough swinging through the Northern parts of the US. Does it cause enough weakness in the ridges to the east and west for it to be pulled north or linger.
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Fwiw. The UK caved. Takes Dorian from Bahamas roughly 40-50 miles off of Florida coast. Missing GA, SC,NC(Wilmington and Outer Banks) Has it intensifying east of Jacksonville FL. Down to 930mb east of Savannah Charleston Wilmington. Heaviest rains along and east of 95. From Fl to NC.
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Last night's run of the UK. Did the same more or less. Miami up the EC of FL. I'm hoping a middle ground solution. Mathew type of path. Not Irma type. A blend of UK/Icon would have 80-90 mph gusts here.
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Some notable differences between GFS and Uk. Gfs is faster and weaker. 961mb landfall near Titusville. Uk 942mb near Port ST Lucie/Palm Bay. Has it SE Orlando 949mb. 956mb about 30 miles east of Ocala
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FWIW. The UK came east too from 0z runs. Slower than GFS. Wetter than GFS too. 15-20" around Orlando. Port St Lucie/Palm Bay to Orlando, to Ocala, to Jacksonville the NE. Timing wise for Orlando. GFS: Mid day Tuesday to over Tuesday/Weds morning. UK over night Tues to Wednesday afternoon
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Last few hours looks like Dorian really starting to strengthen. An eye recently opened. Looks like its trying to become more symmetric in shape. That weak UL seems be aiding in the outflow aloft. See how things progress between now and then. Plenty of 85 degree water in between. Almost reminds me of Andrew. The environment and trajectory.
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When is this pattern going to break?! This is just pure hell for this area. Normally upper 80- low 90s with afternoon storms. It's been every bit of 95-97 degrees here, no clouds no seabreeze storms. Just hot dry wind. I'm afraid setting up for a bad drought for parts of FL, GA, SC, Al
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April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs
FLweather replied to McDowell_Weather's topic in Southeastern States
The current radar off the NC coast is a beautiful thing. What a storm. Straight up bombing off the coast. LP center looks like one gigantic tornadic thunderstorm m -
Eh it all mows the same. Cut it your desire height from a distance looks like a nice green lawn On a side note summer beginning to come full force. Azaleas have finished blooming here.
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Last few frames of the radar on my phone really lighting up over Athens pushing in N SC. 20-25 dbz returns Columbia north special?
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Got to admit. Not a true SE Winter storm from the get go via models. Has proved not to be. But damn the radar is impressive tonight. Precip shield from SD to CO to TX, LA MS to NC, VA. That's alot of distance.
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If you believe that you going to be chasing hr384 on the GFS all winter long.
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Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29
FLweather replied to Cheeznado's topic in Southeastern States
I've had my doubts about this type of set up. Seen it once or twice back in the day while in NC. Never rely on a front to bring snow. Especially with the surface low well too the north. Too much WAA ahead near the surface. But for LA, MS, Al, GA. This a crash and burn situation. Radar doesn't look promising with convection behind/along the front.
