FLweather
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Still in the upper 80s atm. Front has come and gone. The breeze has stopped. Overnight and into tomorrow. The flow should reverse. NW to calm to SE. Probably have a decent chance of low top showers tomorrow. Just depends on that oceanic maritime air.
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Don't have a gauge. But judging by rader estimates and the lake behind my house between 4-6". 6" the high side. Currently sunny and 87.
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First good shower complex we have had in weeks. Since Dorian. Can't complain too much. Last two weeks have brought Easterly winds. A few sprinkles and temps steady 88-93. Hopefully the Gulf opens up this winter. If not widespread drought for much of the SE till late summer.
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Amazing how hot it's been for you all north of I10. Incredible really for late September early October. Going to be crappy foliage season. The leaves are probably going from green to brown.
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Five years ago. Tomorrow morning, I left Roxboro NC. Moved back home to central FL. Where I was born and partly raised. Dunno why it sticks with me so. But 9-28-14 was cold for NC and Florida standards. Remember arriving at my grandparents house. They had the heat on. Five years later. I have a short sleeve shirt on, shorts and flip flops.
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Agree. She will be a open wave or post ts. By tomorrow. That upper level low and trough ripping her apart. No way a TS can survive such hostile conditions . She stuck over one hell of a trough. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/08/1000x1000.jpg
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Might be trying to form an eye. Via visible satellite tried to form an eye earlier this morning.
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Recon found some 45mph winds se of the center. Closing in on the center winds appear to be TD status. Satellite doesn't show anything special. Deep convection getting blown to the NW west of the center. Karen slowly fading away. Too bad she didn't get to talk to the manager.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Karen is dropped later today or tomorrow. That is indeed a ULL. Karen is on the eastern side. So more than likely she will get shredded apart by the trough. Note that swirl above the ULL is Jerry... well what's left.https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/08/1000x1000.jpg
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I was about to call BS But after looking. The mid level center is clearly over PR. But looking at Radar maybe some truth that statement. LLC definitely NE of PR. But how so quickly? Edit. LLC is definitely NE of PR. Developing convection NE of PR shows banding on radar.
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1 over and near land. 2 asymmetrical 3 just started getting better organized over the last 18 hours or so. 4 upper levels not providing adequate exhaust for deep convection Just because conditions are favorable does mean it will bomb out now. Structurally... it's not really stacked and has been sheared.
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Looking at radar out of PR. The center reformed. They have consolidated That 2nd NE swirl appears to have become the primary center. As far as the center is concerned Eastern PR will be landfall.
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Well the popcorn ran out. Don't think the popcorn there or Jerry. Atm any LLC near the deep convection. South and west of what the models show. Especially over PR.
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Looking at visible and recon. What LLC there is. Any landfall will be west of PR. More towards DR
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So far. Recon looks like crap. No west wind Possible center location of 1008mb.
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Highly disorganized. Looks like recon heading SW atm. They probably going to make another attempt at the center.
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Very reasonable day. Can't complain today. Low to mid 80s. Had 5-6 showers today. Looks like another here shortly. Been windy not so much today. But these little cells are very fast.
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Are you serious? That means this system will and have to have one hell of an Intensification spell. Not entirely impossible. But the chances are low. Never underestimate a storm over the Gulf Stream though. But so much has to come together at the right time right place. This has a longgggggggggg way to go.
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2 years ago Irma made landfall twice in FL. Was a rough storm for sure around here. 70-85 winds/gust. About a foot of rain. Was a miserable 8 days before the power came back on.
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Speaking of a tropical system. Appears that little tropical wave west of Africa has potential. Both long range GFS and Euro show it entering the Northern Caribbean. Much like Dorian. GFS showing landfall in FL as a Hurricane. Tropics might not be finished yet.
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Been hot since Dorian left. Hot for FL standards. 95-97 and for the next couple of days. Limited clouds and sun. Reminds me of a couple of weeks in May where the ECSB and WCSB was no where to be found. Just hope the Cape Verde season slows and the southern Caribbean remains non existent. Plenty of time to go.
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What was the reason for him quitting Wral? Man he looks rough. Lost a fair amount of weight. Really don't look like himself.
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Most definitely rock on
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I'm beginning to have my doubts about Dorian being captured and pulled north. Looking at current WV. Looking at what's in the GOM. The trough too flat and stable to be to be pulling Dorian north much.
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12z gefs spaghetti charts seem to favor the western side of NHC cone of Uncertainty.
