RogueWaves

Pattern to date, mby: CAD-->WAW-->DTD-->MELT-->REPEAT

Idk? Kinda been dreaming about an 11-12 winter lately.

Weren't you touting how Nina's deliver snowy Decembers? Well..there it is.

Would be nice if this was right, but 2 days is forever in this pattern.

Drove through that after work when it was further SW near Kzoo. Legit rippage. 94 was a mess. Worst night-time drive since chasing the 3/5/12 big dog in NWMI

I see that. Icy Friday, but then thump snows Saturday night.

May be more N in Iowa, but wrt snow swath it's further south in the Mitt. Could be having thermal issues in a different direction with this wave. Although, 12z Ukie had snow south like this too so NAM's not alone today.

0z NAM bullish on snow which I thought was odd as it's been a warmer model, right?

IWX talked WWA in their pm AFD

Following winter storms in this era has become an unmitigated train wreck!

Sweet! 2004 was on the 23rd iirc. Similar deal. Ann Arbor was like 6+, not a flake back my way. Enjoy, and Merry Christmas!

Congrats OH Peeps. Been a long time coming. Merry White Christmas!

Heard the UK's snow shield was a tad S, no?

Fluke tease

If by wintry you mean more than just cold, that's not guaranteed. Especially with Chicago's history. There's another 98-99. Think of it as the evil twin of the more recent. While the EC from Florida on northeast "enjoyed" one the all-time historical (what's the acronym HECS?) blizzards in the nation's memory, Chicagoans dealt with frozen tundra. From that other futility thread: Remains to be seen exactly which "98-99" analog this winter follows, but my hand is primed to move my $$ from the younger to the elder

Dittos this side of the pond

My old place was 1 mile NE of the airport. Whoever has it now, you're lookin good for Santa's arrival

At least you've had snow OTG and 2 foot to date Iirc. Better than so many in this sub.

The dominant N. wave means shifting the focus to any LES potential for me. Euro is Grinchy here in that dept. GFS a bit better and GEM gets my early vote for the global of choice: Through Saturday 1 pm (includes a bit from the incoming clipper here and where applicable):

Seems as that was a much more straight-forward scenario fwiw. Hedging my bets on any model really having a strong grasp on this system at this point. All options seem to remain on the table. How soon do we begin to eliminate those is the question.

Wat? Everyone from NW burbs of Detroit and west made out great with that storm. E Lwr lakes maybe not, but SMI and NIL are also lwr lakes region.

Wasn't every model a rainer there. At least initially til the front gets through.

It hasn't been too quiet for SEMI but it's like a whole different world west of there. Ofc, we just had a nice storm with decent track but lacked cold so we got a nice December soaker. We will need cold or that will wash, rinse, repeat. My concerns about the Nina is broken-down here in these two graphics which shows it leaning warm: As for a list of Modoki vs traditional it may be in here somewhere if you look closely at the analog table: https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

This is unfortunately a Modoki Nina, and just as Modoki Nino's leave the door cracked for us to make out better than traditional Nino's, the Modoki Nina is less favorable state then the traditional Nina and leaves the door cracked for disappointment. Acting like a Nino so far, and nothing looks too eager to change. I'll be glad if you end up correct ofc. We'll see. The remote viewing of other region's storms does nothing for me personally, and the more awesome it is for them, the more depressing it is for our own sad state of affairs. Keep in mind, you've seen like 5X the snow many of us have.

Next of kin?