RogueWaves

Going into MET winter flipping the switch to wetter here finally?

Upper end of forecast would be the wettest event since Feb at DTW.

Sad, but true. This Sunday's system has a shot at being the single wettest event since 2-17. If that doesn't paint the picture, I can't help explain it further.

Chedda Curtain peeps could thread a needle?

10d Euro would bring some much need moisture here. Would be the wettest in months and at least begin to pull the region out of drought status. Nina effects beginning to show.

All key Indices are pointing cold. Hopefully we can a favorable system or 2 to go along with.

Wondering why they didn't use the new Squall Warning headline? Seemed like the perfect opportunity.

DTW hit 16F overnight b4 torching up at 45F and sunshine this afternoon. Surprised at the amount of snow that survived. Several days at or below freezing packed a punch on soil temps.

Guessing you mean "text"? P sure I saw a map with BC in the 8-12 range. Congrats on the record event and personal biggest btw

Buffalo needs time to dig out

Must be a Nino

Tied with eastern UP Dark purple area shows how anomalous that snow was for SMO, SIL and SIN

Going by GRR's storm totals map I'd guesstimate 9 or 10". Half of what BC had, but so much better than Nov of 2014. This brings up my normal rant about that office's headlines policy. While I lived there we saw multiple 7" in <12 hours synoptic events that were WWA's, while this took 3-1/2 days to get 9+ of light weight LES and had a warning. There's just something so not copasetic about that.

Too bad many of them led to things like Decembers that were total dumpster fires

Was dumping for a hot minute last night. Not as much as others had in the area but with the ground cooled off a couple days prior, it wasn't melting from below like the usual Nov snows. Looked like a nice January day. That could be winter.

Yeah, thought you did good then too. That Warning couldn't even cover the grass blades in Marshall. What a disappointing event for me. Looks like this one is treating Marshall much better and will end with a bang tonight. Have you seen any reports from there?

1st legit rippage of the season here attm. 12k NAM gonna nail it with its call of 1-1.5"

Used to be Uncle Ukie's role

Was a couple counties north today and when the new snow began the WC was 11F. Enough winds to lift the couple inches that were on the fields into swirling ground squalls. Drifts were happening in earnest and the real feel was like a solid January day. Just standing outside to pump gas was brutal.

MSF can correct if I'm wrong but looks like my 1st winter headline of the season is an SWS Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 743 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 MIZ068>070-075-076-200230- Livingston MI-Macomb MI-Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-Wayne MI- 743 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022 ...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND...MACOMB... WASHTENAW...AND WAYNE COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow accompanied by winds of up to 30 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to near a quarter of a mile. Quick snow accumulation around 1 inch with localized totals near 2 inches by 1000 PM. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 740 PM EST, a narrow band of heavy snow was along a line from Rochester to near Brighton to near Gregory and moving east at 35 MPH. THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE NEAR... Troy around 740 PM EST. Sterling Heights around 745 PM EST. Mount Clemens and Dexter around 755 PM EST. Novi around 800 PM EST. Hamburg around 805 PM EST. Whitmore Lake around 810 PM EST. Birmingham and Dixboro around 820 PM EST. This includes the following highways... I-75 between mile markers 27 and 71. I-275 between mile markers 8 and 29. I-94 between mile markers 154 and 238. I-96 between mile markers 154 and 192. I-696 between mile markers 1 and 28. US-23 between mile markers 26 and 58.

What'd you/BC get in the Nov 2014 LES event?

GHD-1 was 2011, GHD-2 was 2015 Kzoo (I-94) 14" & 20" respectively GR (I-96) 17" & 8" respectively

And many historic winters started off like this with big LES events for typical places like Nov '77 2-footer at S. Bend, the 17" hit at St. Joseph in Nov of '13 to name a couple. Now we wait to see if the synoptic stuff wants to be a party animal too.

Looking like one for the ages along 94. Been a while since GRR spent so much ink mentioning anything besides "131 and west". After a brief intermission, we will see a very rapid onset of a new round of snow across the northwest forecast area shortly after sunrise Saturday. This event will feature substantial synoptic lift thanks to a deepening and sharpening trough upstream and an associated cold front over Wisconsin that is already producing snow. Meanwhile, farther east over Lake Michigan, the boundary layer will quickly deepen with convective instability exceeding a depth of 10000 ft. This deep lake instability plume is expected to rapidly penetrate far inland, bringing with it an extremely fast onset of heavy snow and poor visibility that should extend northwest of a Muskegon to Clare line by the 9 AM time frame. This area of lake enhanced snow will expand very quickly so that by 1 PM its leading edge will extend approximately from the southwest tip of Lower Michigan to Lansing. Snowfall will be quite intense at this point across far southwest Lower MI. In fact, latest WPC guidance gives Grand Rapids 3-4 inches of snow between 1 PM and 7 PM Saturday. This is the kind of daytime snowfall rate one would expect in mid January instead of mid November. The contributing lake-induced fgen region mentioned previously now looks to be a bit more progressive than earlier thought thanks to the cold font moving in with more authority. Even so, it appears we should see a dominant and more purely lake effect band developing in its wake and persisting through much of Saturday night with heavy snowfall. Unfortunately, this band looks to be closely aligned with I-94, as is often the case in these scenarios. In contrast, areas farther north closer to US-10 we should see a gradual cessation of lake effect snow Saturday night around the same time things are staying interesting around I-94 as described above. In addition to accumulating snow through Saturday night, we are concerned about strong winds increasing the hazards of exposure to cold, poor visibility, and possibly drifting. Saturday`s daytime wind chills may actually be lowest over the southeast forecast area as this is where winds will be the strongest. Drifting of snow remains a concern, especially since we`ve already seen a hint of this here at the office. And they've added winds to 40 mph in the headline wording too. I know you're not the biggest wind geek like me, but you have to admit it's pretty wild for the first real event of the season. And ofc, it finally happens 1 yr after I've moved on.

Yeah, not that that would hurt the cause, but it'd still be the dispersed version, just a bit heavier. To mimic KBUF, you'd have to re-draw the shape of SWMI's coast line so it funneled to a point just west of Kzoo. That'd be about perfect I think.