RogueWaves

This be the foundation snow. There are other dogs hunting in our future.

DTX trying to keep this one on the rails National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 .UPDATE... Evening observations are being monitored upstream for checks of onset timing on the SE MI snow event set to begin toward sunrise and then ramp up during the morning. The leading edge of precipitation associated with the textbook Gulf coast system is entering far southern IL/western KY at mid evening. This is about on schedule based on model comparisons which then project at least light snow ongoing by the 5AM to 7 AM Warning/Advisory start times from the Ohio border up to the northern Detroit suburbs. This initial phase of the event puts down just enough accumulation for hazardous travel during the morning travel peak in the Detroit metro area. Some wavering of coverage and intensity is then expected around mid morning as the leading isentropic ascent and moisture transport plays out against resident dry air over the south half of Lower Mi as indicated in the latest 00Z DTX sounding. A transition to a more dynamically forced phase of the event begins by late morning with a notable afternoon peak of coverage and intensity. The afternoon phase is driven by an excellent combination of coupled jet, short wave DCVA, and occlusion forcing that occurs along and north of a classic NW Ohio surface low track. A band of heavy snow is then expected around mid afternoon roughly centered on a line from Adrian to metro Detroit to Port Huron matching up with maximum elevated instability along the south flank of the TROWAL axis. Snow rate of 1 inch per hour is likely during this time with significant impacts to the evening peak travel period. Event total accumulation of 3 to 6 inches Advisory and 6 to 8 inches Warning are on target by the time snow diminishes Wednesday evening. &&

3X was a bit of a stretch (forgot to add Sunday's event) but not by much. With Sunday, I'm at 8.8" so "only" 2X in a place better known for T-storm wx. The ref to 04-05 was the Christmas storm that buried that area Louisville/Cincinnati. They must've been ahead of DTW early on regardless of the seasonal total.

That's like 3X my total, which is totally unacceptable in my way of thinking. But prolly happened in 04-05 too

DTW channeling MSP?

But we've got the x-fer east also tugging against all traditional odds. 991 mb actually

Normally a $$ call but Downriver has had the hot hand the past 2 seasons so there's that arguing against

Then issues an updated snowfall map with 6 inch line further north than before, lol. A rare nice-to-have for a sig S. Stream system is zero "other p-types" in my hourly at DTW. 3rd bonus, lower DP's preserved a fair amount of patchy snow despite 40F and sun all damned day!

The Beavis of snow cover

At least it's not 50F like the day b4 the storms last winter, but yeah, the one day we get a "warm sun" go figure!

..aaand we've lost the ORD crew

0z NAM reflecting CLE's mention of the SLP "drifting east" as it occludes and x-fers. Lingers snows here all night

Very dynamic and cold storm w/high winds

WPC seems to be going with the NAM camp

Out to what hour? Only goes to h18 on TT

For here, the old saying that it's always something applies. Hard-hitter storms for Detroit Metro proper are a rare breed. Feb '65, Jan '92 are the only two that come to mind where they were free to shoot north in Canada without the dreaded dry slot or WTOD mode so common. Don't remember if 2/5/11 kept going north in Canada?

I just finished reading their updates. Agree with the impact-based reasoning/decision. I remember some awesome front-enders years ago and it is a traffic nightmare that a simple last-minute WWA headline or SWS doesn't do justice.

Front-end thump snow like we used to get a lot of in late 80's

LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle??

Still lots (LOT's) of time for Chi-town Peeps

Euro been counter-balancing the GFS/NAM's more NW trends. Meet ya in the middle

We will know when it turns the corner

Would love to stay at 32 or below, but even a couple hrs of 33F wouldn't be a total slop-fest. 2-24-16 comes to mind wrt the <10:1 storms (think RC mentioned it). That was a mushy mess but still plow-worthy and piles were made. I'll be satisfied with that outcome. Anything breaks better for us, all the better.

They did. Just meant that systems have favored your region with higher totals on any given event. Can't imagine it was/will always be that way throughout time, lol

@michsnowfreak Downriver/DTW wins again. Some day this may switch around, but for at least two seasons it's undeniable