winterymix

The NAM is a three hour event, snow from 9 am to noon and that is that.

Global worming

Interesting, that a heavy dog can function as a weather observation instrument. Who knew?

My impression is "overnight snow flurries" ending a couple of hours after sunrise with the icy coating from light freezing drizzle. No real snow accumulation but some frosty rime.

Interestingly, here in Reisterstown, there has been a toggle between snow and sleet. Just now, it is light to moderate snow with visibility down to about 1 1/2 to 2 miles. I've been stocking the my outdoor bird feeders all winter and let me just say... the birds have had a gigantic appetite this winter.

Shouldn't this be in the Las Vegas sub-forum? ??

Some folks here are giving up on the storm too soon. Yeah, the warm nose arrived sooner and in a much larger region than most people expected.Yet the storm in my area (North central Maryland) is starting to RAGE. We went from light pingers to moderate snow. I see no traffic on the nearby road, none. My workplace closed for the day, a rarity.

GFS gives the Metros 3 to 8 and the good stuff is near I 81.

The GFS says intermittent freezing drizzle Sunday.

Hunch? Analogues.

Forecasting snow for DC that abuts the Potomac is forecasting swamp snow. Good freaking luck: swamp snow during global worming.

Yepp. They nailed start and stop times of day and knew about how important the meso-scale banding would be.

She doesn't.

GFS looks like a promising event for 02/14.

Reisterstown is 60% to 75% of Parrs Ridge. Jack-potting today!

HUMONGOUS FATTIES

Backyard fatties of Reisterstown, 760 feet above sea level.

My wife thinks they are five inches.

Hi rez NAM, shows on and off light snow til 13Z Tues.

Very nicely written. But...what are the odds for some over-achieving accum. during the next phase of this departing gentle "beast?"

My amateur look at this evening's NAM prompts this question to a/any meteorologist: Check out the 700 mb evolution: 700 meanders SW to NE at Ohio River valley and weakens... and then reforms in the mid-Atlantic states moving east and intensifying over eastern Delaware. It warms and dry-slots us. Are we s-------d or is NAM incorrect?

The 6Z GFS seems to give widespread 9" to 14 inches just west of DC-BALTO.

Pattern recognition is what this storm is all about.. Snow to freezing rain to rain, we've had this pattern a quadrillion times.

Don, thank you for initiating this important forum thread. In my opinion, academic-based climate science lacks a much-needed legal-judicial administrative structure and our state governments lack effective state to state climate laws and climate statutes. Each of our fifty state governments must put forth a plan with the goal of each state leaving the best possible state climate for future generations. We collectively created the problem and we all collectively set for the solution. Influential climate experts need to create a legal backstop similar to that of the American Medical Association. Our best climatologists need to speak to all of our citizens with a compelling voice. Consider the manner in which physicians have stabilized their profession with post-graduate board exams and detailed state law throughout the USA. If some evidence-based-medicine denier starts tweeting that modern medicine is a contrivance, the general public will shrug off the kook and turn to a qualified health care expert. The climate experts must invite all of us here, around the US and around the world to access the best possible version of the truth regarding climate change. The problem facing modern meteorology and modern climatology is that anyone can post worthless drivel without repudiation. Gosh, rumors abound of a US president that posted a Sharpie-faked hurricane prognostication. Perhaps we need a Cabinet level Department of the Climate, if only without any political bias. If our nation continues to pursue climate policy slathered with political bias, we've declared war upon our planet. Based upon recent US trends, historically poor decision making has become a form of persistence.

etudiant: Do you understand what it takes to get a scientific study published in a career-leading scientific journal? Do you understand the scientific ethics involved? if you are not a scientist with university-level qualifications and haven't completed a college curriculum that exposes students to the scientific method you wouldn't know how and why scientists work towards a consensus. Areas that can be analyzed and modelled become established scientific concepts over time. Areas of knowledge that are challenging to analyze leave room for opposing scientific theories. Regarding modern climatology, enough is settled to deserve consensus. Over 97% of the World's top scientific experts agree that anthropomorphic influences are inducing changes in the planet's land, air and water. These experts are referred to as scientists because they have the intelligence, training, ethics and experience to put forth the best possible version of reality, knowledge and the truth. Unless you have superior intelligence, education, colleagues and insight and defer to experts with qualifications, you are deliberately drawing your thoughts from an inferior path. Knowing less, comprehending less and understanding less than accomplished scientists is an unwise but deliberate choice.