winterymix

I see that. What I see is some mixing until after 15Z. Then, a narrow corridor of moisture sets up from the GOM to New England. I see training, as if the same moisture feed is nearly stationary for 3 to 6 hours as the column cools. Good times a-coming.

I invite banter about the attached GEFS 500 vorticity yield. 1. split flow 2. drainage from Siberia 3. (-)NAO

Isotherm, very intelligent analysis. Thanks. To be honest, I'd appreciate (from anyone here) any online links to articles in the public domain that could assist me in understanding the scientific principles that support the analysis located above. I already know some stuff about ENSO, MJO but am looking for articles that describe (for the non-meteorologist) how to understand the forcing between the differing atmospheric phases. Long story short, this winter seems to be like so many others in that an unfavorable Pacific requires two-thirds of the winter to make a favorable shift.

Really encouraging. Thanks, Ji.

Hard wrk, good post. Less talk of K-U, less talk of phasing, more talk of glancing blows with fair amount of cold. This is how you get to Climo slowly!

I fess up. Last week I brought home 160 of pet-safe icemelter in preparation for the epic fail-bust last weekend. Bringing all that icemelter killed our opportunity to exceed climatology, not only that, the icemelter will absorb enough water vapor to clump into 160 pounds of artificial boulder.

30% probability that it is actually not too soon to prepared the snowblower for summer storage.

Anything that gets even a tiny bit of negative tilt west of Mississippi River is trending to scoot NE. DT rule # slopheadzillion

I see the same. For years/decades, we've disciplined ourselves as a sub-region here to wait "10 days". Now, thanks to Ms. Pacific and Ms. Atlantic and Ms. equatorial Pacific Ocean, we discipline ourselves to wait 16 days and the next ensemble run will be "epic". New mantra for MA and southern PA: March will saves us! Sun angle can be overcome by heavy rates at night! Padding my seasonal total 1/8" at a time! Severe rules all! Living for Tropical season!

Makes sense. BTW, have already had an OK winter in N. MD. Two snows of 4" or a tiny bit more, a one inch, some sleet and now below zero WCs.

I'd recommend a specific thread for members in need to asseverate the psychological impact of not getting enough of the type of weather that they perseverate about endlessly.

Yeah, I agree, Howard. Some surprises in store for us. I posted the 2 hour pressure change map. We have a lot of warm air advection at 850 mb and the 850 mb low may pass over most of us.

All snow is good snow, as we inch along towards our statistical mean.

GEFS looks favorable for only six to 12 hours of pure liquid.

The Euro suggests that 850 mb temperatures stay close to 0C. along the northern tier of our region for most of the storm. Saturday night into Sunday morning could feature an interesting mix of wetflakes and snizzle.

What we see here is the GFS 850 mb depiction for sunset on Saturday. This seems to be the final moments for freezing precipitation before massive WAA sweeps the region. So...my interpretation is that accumulating snow and then snow-sleet will be limited to the daytime hours on Saturday. There continues to be very little end of event accumulating snow. The LWX AFD suggests that a small number of ensemble members depict the low sagging a bit south of us, our "last-best-hope."

Giant dorper behind the armoire.

At the very least, Ohio to SNE will be snow covered for weeks and that may cool our boundarylayer for February. Patience.

Thanks, valuable contribution!

The correct answer and quickly. Thanks.

Reisterstown 4.7 Congrats to those in the greater DC area that scored.

TPV is not in the weather.gov glossary. I'm assuming it is something about polar vortex and probably not total prostate volume.

Magic!

We've had 4.2". Incoming: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-EET-1-12

Some sort of lift localized west of Martinsburg.