winterymix

Strongly agree.

Could you comment on my analysis of the upcoming storm based upon the NAM? My eval. for Balto. DC corridor: -snow from 10Z to 17Z -sleet from 15Z to 22Z freezing rain from 18Z 2/20 until 5Z 2/21

Good and detailed analysis. Personally, I'm taking the prerogative of using the model that gives me the most snow in my backyard. For now, with my limited analysis, that shall be the GFS. The dominant precipitation type gives mby snow from hour 24 to hour 33. The QPF is about 0.7... with heavy wet snow and ratio of 8:1 (YAG) I'm hoping for 5" to 6".

This has the look of reality. The 3K NAM calls for 0.4" of liquid equivalent before the switch to sleet. Am surprised the NWS isn't highlighting the sleet potential. A huge portion or our sub-forum can receive 0.6 inch liquid equivalent as sleet. So much sleet can be crippling. Long story short: 3" to 5" snow followed by 2" or 3" sleet to drizzle.

I understood the article. The hope is that whatever forcing amplifies the TNH and amplifies the SE ridge loses forcing once March begins. If so, it isn't too late for big snow. Here are some red letter dates for Balto-Wash area: 11-14 March 1888 27-28 March 1891 15-16 March 1900 4 March 1909 16-17 March 1931 7-8 March 1941 28-29 March 1942 18-19 March 1956 18-21 March 1958 2-5 March 1960 5-7 March 1962 21-22 March 1964 8-9 March 1984 12-13 March 1993 2-5 March 1994 12-14 March 1993 8-9 March 1984 2-4 March 1994

No TNH in March per the article.

Good insights, Fozz. I recommend that we all appeal to Mappie to do the yearly totals. I recommend that Mapgirl, without violating privacy concerns, share with the group her cartology creds.

The lack of snow is absolutely in any possible manner not a problem at all compared to the people with hostility towards women.

We can have surprises during the upcoming three weeks or so.

The systems coming up over the next five days are weak with "snow showers". O K . We have a somewhat normal winter but no KU storms. Still, we've had about three positive busts, a couple of arctic surges, multiple days off for the kiddies and several incidences of sleet. Anyone complaining about the lack of KU storms needs to be reminded that those events are spotty at best.

Nice...if only it gets more juice and slips north by 15 miles...is that too much to ask for?

Reisterstown, back to snow; light to moderate. Nice storm for us northern tier folks.

Thank you very much. I read APDs from Sterling whenever I'm curious about those insights. The meteorologists at LWX have scientific integrity and work well as a team. Everyone here should welcome the LWX team, you may learn from those folks. If someone here has a scientific beef with LWX, voice your views in the refined tone of a college-educated adult.

fatties in Reisterstown with the change-over line rapidly approaching.

Light snow in Reisterstown. It must be 32.01 degrees; the stickage is spotty so far.

The FV3 shows snow for a hand full of hours and then a mix to rain. Then, tail end snow. The initial dump occurs at night, so no insolation worries.

I see light snow with GFS on 11th, 12th and 16th followed by skeeters and allergy season.

Nice analysis, Don. Many of us have waited so long to see good snow. Nevertheless,: I'm told that one third of birds don't survive a brutally cold winter.

What I like is the manner in which the h500 tries to do some backing and align itself over the western half of Greenland.

Current temps, via wunderground Leader, MN -30.0 dp -49 Perch Lake, MN -37.0 dp -42 Division Street Ext., PA -13.0 dp -22 Overlook Villas, MD -8.0 dp -13

Schools caving!

All the models show the squall line on west side DC-Balto around 17Z. Some many schools opening 2 hours late -- some many kids being dismissed from school one to three hours after the squall covers strteets with a thin sheet of ice for the kids' rides home. Potential big UH-OH.

Front-end flurry in Reisterstown. Light snow, 8 to 10 miles visibility. Immediate stickage. Yep. Fifth accumulator this season!

Dear Heavy and Millville: long time winter weather luvr here, about 60 years worth. Thank you very much for sharing your expertise. My backyard is Reisterstown-Glyndon. Am thinking 1" Catonsville and 5" Parrs Ridge and moi in between. Mets: please continue to post forecast soundings with interpretation.

The RAP loves Parr's Ridge.