winterymix

Impressed, want to know of Gallatin was skill or luck. Ste Geneviere, mo getting dim out and some cumulus, hopefully they disipaite

made it to Festus, near CL Got my shortwave for WWV

We are headed for FELIX VALLE HOUSE STATE HISTORIC SITE in SE Missouri in case you want to join us. 443-789-9680

In St. Louis hotel. Easting Snyders pretzels, BRISK lemonade, comedy on CNN. Thinking of leaving at 5 am for the area between Hopkinsville and Carbondale. GFS is clogged with clouds and the hated NAM is favorable. Bust heartbreak, anyone?

Same. Here at STL. Humid cloudy sweaty day. Much incertainty for tomorrow. Nowcasting time. Water vapor loop.

Jerry, it is still too early to pick a clear spot among patches of clouds. So the GFS image here is going to change. But if it stays mostly clear from SE MO into N and NC TN, then we've got a good sense of where to be.

I'm concerned . The models have trended more cloudy for about three runs now.

Jerry, I guess so. It seems that having a stew of very weak steering current in the lower mid-West leads to a ton of non-specific clouds, some of which are debris from decaying thunderstorm clusters.

kill-I kill-I kill-I

Guys, the GFS is trending cloudier with each run. I've attached cloudiness and 850. Jerry, I have no clue as to how you picked north-west-central TN but it looks to be a nice [partly cloudy] choice based on the current numerical guidance. STL AFD:

Looking like the correct play for now.

NWS at STL suggests Carbondale, southern IL

Nothing but soupy summer heat and humidity with very weak lifting triggers.

Hello red tag meteorologists: any probabilistic cloud forecasts for the centerline? GFS looks more cloudy with each run.

Dream conditions would be cold front passage with a drop of dew points. Instead, this is semi-tropical humid soup. Hopefully pop up showers and thick clouds will shift north along the edge of that ridge which wants to trundle north (slowly). Wouldn't know for sure until 24 hours before the event. Wishing clear skies to all the eclipse chasers.

Knowing too little about cloud forecasteses, I'ma just going post the 700 mb sref for the AM hours before totality... Most of the US has a moist juicy column of summer humidity except the Oregan rain shadow desert and the Idaho-Wyoming-Nebraska fly over landscape. I'm hoping MO has sunny skies from noon to 2 pm somewhere on the CL The trend was to increase clouds in MO from 20/30% to more like 40%...fOOK. Fingernail chewing commence!

Then Missouri-Tenn. corridor looks....hot and 30% clouds. Am more concerned with cirrus than mid level clouds. Cumulus and mid-level can dissipate between 1st and 2nd contact. Those smarti-pants in east Oregon may have 80s and sun....

Traveling with another 60+ yr old colleague.. We need T shirts that say short Jew nerds . com I will mention it to him. But Gallitin is 340+ miles from St. Louis. Should have opted for East Oregon/Idaho. Our plan is to stay at a Hilton on west side of St. Louis and take rental vehicle to centerline that seems to have best skies within two to three hour drive of west St. Louis. Should you want to change your flight to STL, we already have a vehicle and hotel.

Fair point. This is my fourth total. The new Nikons can be set with a built in intervalometer and built in exposure bracketing. I can get nine exposures bracketed with a range of shutter speeds after one command to the camera. So I can get correctly set exposures and still view with the naked eye. The Nikon D7500 can capture exposures almost good enough for National Geographic. Jerry, this is a must-read: Sperling's Eight Second Law - All Total Solar Eclipses Last Eight Seconds

People are hush, hush about where they are observing/chasing. I'm bringing four Nikon dslrs, three or four tripods, a little folding table and some binoculars. Can't anyone observing near the CL in MO share some location observing tips?

I'm fantasizing about displaying a thermometer at two meters and with some sort of sun shade. It would be interesting to record 2m temperatures during the event. I 'm reading that with favorable conditions, the 2m temp. can drop 15 to 20 degrees. I'm guessing dry soil, no clouds, no pollution, no wind shear will allow quick transfer of outgoing radiation starting about 40 minutes before second contact. I'm sure these stats will be gathered across the centerline and near center. Hopefully a lot of good temp logs will emerge. Can any-of-ya suggest a reasonably priced air thermometer I can buy before Friday, not the POC in Home Depot. Any tricks on a legit way to provide sunshade? Will the temps count if I do not have motorized ventilation? Thanks to the red taggers, keep those probabilistic forecast products coming.

Where? I'm looking at MU Extension in Howard County.

Jerry, I'm guessing the GFS 700 mb (rel humidity, omega, heights, winds) chart gives us a rough idea of cloud cover. For eclipse time, it seems that the Ozarks (MO/TN) area is under an area of stationary flow/August scattered showers. My hunch is "partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers". I'm guessing that verification is poor at 7-8 days but still the rough ideas are there. What do you think?

If we each put aside $175 a month for 23 months...

Jerry, see you on July 2, 2019 — Total Solar Eclipse — La Serena, Chile