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winterymix

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Everything posted by winterymix

  1. winterymix
    Snowgasmic here in Reisterstown. Very light intensity fine pixies. Started 10 minutes ago.
  2. winterymix
    I regret insisting that the District would be advisory only. Up here in north west central Balto. County, am hoping for some upper level low goodies tomorrow afternoon.
  3. winterymix
    I was positive DC wouldn't get a WSW. OOPPSSSS...Enjoy!
  4. winterymix
    I'm looking at 0Z NAM surface snow depth at hour 45. [instantweathermaps.com] A broad section of VA centered on Culpepper have six inches. So...half of that in our area.
  5. winterymix
    I'm of the northern crew. -76.796954 39.473706
  6. winterymix
    Will bet $20 it is advisory only for DC.
  7. winterymix
    The HIREZNAM 700 mb shows a cutoff of da juice at 7 am Sunday. Believe it.
  8. winterymix
    The HI-REZ NAM gives everyone 0.25 " to 0.50 " liquid equiv. in the front thump. Then...all of the remainder is on the coast.
  9. winterymix
    Good work, nice EURO images.
  10. winterymix
    agree...happy we have a snow event, trying to avoid wish casting.
  11. winterymix
    The "storm" is trending weaker...too progressive...any NS/SS phase occurs too late for us and just NE of us.
  12. winterymix
    Just to remind everyone how far forecasting has come: 1940s.....cloudy vs. precip. 1980s....."chance rain or snow" 2000.....chance of flurries or light snow now...we have a good idea when it will start and stop, the precip. type and intensity and the locales that are favored. We have reasonable cross-model agreement. GFS and NAM both depict a strung out weak and poorly-precipted system. Flurries at the M-D Line and 1-3 DCA.
  13. winterymix
    The ICON and the 18Z GFS both show a tendency for the better snows to be west and southwest of DC. But...the GFS seems to send the storm out in two waves with the area NW of Richmond cashing in from the second wave around hour 110.
  14. winterymix
    Agreed. Here is another way of saying something similar: http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
  15. winterymix
    Coffee. That's why we drink so much at sunrise.
  16. winterymix
    Agree...EURO shows strung out look and GEFS ratifies. Still, light accumulating snow for most in our sub-forum with a possible six weeks of opportunities in the pipeline. For the 1/13 - 1/14 DEC PIC storm, we can expect multiple DEC PICS of 1" to 3". GEFS:
  17. winterymix
    EURO looks a bit like an open wave, progressive. OK for advisory snow in N V A and C MD.
  18. winterymix
    I dont even like snow...I like it on models The rich vein of sophisticated humor...
  19. winterymix
    Thank you!!
  20. winterymix
    Enthusiastically agree with the excitement here. For the first time this winter, we notice humungous low pressure crashing from the Pacific into the California coast but crashing slowly so that a nice ridge forms from Idaho south just as the AO drops and we enjoy surges of Canadian air flooding the East. For Jan13 and Jan20, we see classic evolution, yeah!
  21. winterymix
    psu, if you don't mind my asking, where you do access your EURO stuff? PM if you can share privately, not in public.
  22. winterymix
    FYP
  23. winterymix
    DCA has recorded on one occasion only a low of 29, a low of 28 and a low of 27 so far this winter. We are stuck in autumn.
  24. winterymix
    I looked for some analog years in Baltimore history that featured just a bit of snow Nov-Dec followed by the mean climo snow all coming in Jan-Feb-Mar. Please look at the select list and let us know if this sort of back load has a good probability for the remainder of our winter for our region. 1921-22 Jan 31.3 Feb 4.4 Mar 0.1 1963-64 Jan 10.3 Feb 18.2 Mar 13.2 1977-78 Jan 12.4 Feb 12.3 Mar 8.5 1986-87 Jan 25.1 Feb 10.1 1995-96 Jan 32.6 Feb 19.0 Mar 7.6 2002-03 Jan 5.3 Feb 40.5 Mar 2.6 2015-16 Jan 30 Feb 2.6 Mar 2.5
  25. winterymix
    Too bad the GEFS doesn't run out to hour 600. By then, all of the snow hostility will have worked its way out of the pattern. Otherwise, it is a 44 deg. N pattern.
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