wolfie09

That's what a warm lake, lower elevations does to you early in a season lol It's more about GFS showing some wintry precipitation..

It was only a matter of time lol

The coldest calendar month on record was established this February 2015 as a constant siege of very cold air masses brought day after day of well below normal temperatures. Nearly every day this month was below normal across Western and North Central New York State, and about a third of the days this month were 20F or more degrees below normal. This February also was one of the snowiest February’s on record for Western and North Central New York. The month began with a significant snowstorm that dropped a foot to a foot and a half of snow across Western and Central New York. Through the first week temperatures did manage to climb to around the freezing mark twice, on both the 4th and the 7th. Thereafter a strong ridge of high pressure aloft was anchored over the western third of North American, while a deep trough of low pressure was carved over the eastern two thirds of North America. This persistent flow in the jet stream allowed for arctic air to flow southward across Canada and towards the Great Lakes region. This cold air mass would then linger through the end of the month over eastern Canada and the eastern United States. The extremely cold air set several daily low temperature records through the last three weeks of the month. The final two and a half weeks of the month averaged 15F to 20F degrees below normal across Western and North Central New York State. Within the northwest flow this month several clipper systems passed through bringing light snows to our region, along with air temperatures moderating slightly from their frigid values. Behind each clipper low a fresh arctic air mass replenished the cold air across the Great Lakes region sending air temperatures to well below normal values yet again. The final three lake effect snow events of the year occurred in February. These events were minor east of Lake Erie as the lake was just about completely frozen over, while across the eastern end of Lake Ontario the three lake effect snow events carried an average magnitude of around a foot of snow each. A good portion of Lake Ontario was covered in ice by the end of February, with nearly all of the central and eastern sections of the lake ice covered.

You guys need to find your own bad luck charm and leave ours alone..

The South Pole just had its coldest winter on record. Between April and September, a research station sitting on a high plateau in Antarctica, registered an average temperature of minus 78 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 61 degrees Celsius). That's the coldest temperature recorded since record keeping began in 1957, and about 4.5 F (2.5 C) lower than the most recent 30-year average, according to The Washington Post. The previous record for the coldest winter was minus 77 F (minus 60.6 C) in 1976, Stefano Di Battista, a journalist wrote on Twitter. The Post learned of this record through Battista, but then confirmed the information with Richard Cullather, a research scientist at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. Related: Coldest places on Earth The frigid winter is likely caused by a strong polar vortex in the stratosphere, the second layer of the planet's atmosphere from Earth's surface, according to the Post. "Basically, the winds in the polar stratosphere have been stronger than normal, which is associated with shifting the jet stream toward the pole," Amy Butler, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA, told the Post. "This keeps the cold air locked up over much of Antarctica." What's more, a strong polar vortex also leads to more ozone depletion in the stratosphere, which strengthens the polar vortex even more, according to the Post. Ozone is a gas made up of three oxygen molecules that is found high in the atmosphere. Ozone protects Earth's surface from harmful ultraviolet rays and depleting it can expand the ozone hole over Antarctica. While Antarctica logged the coldest known average winter temperature, satellites have detected individual temperatures that are far lower; as low as minus 144 F (minus 98 C), according to the Post. Thanks to the frigid temperatures, sea ice levels around Antarctica were at their fifth highest extent on record in August, the Post reported. But the ice melted rapidly over the next several weeks, and by the end of September sea ice had thinned to some of the lowest levels seen at that time of year. Scientists told the Post that the climate in Antarctica is prone to rapid change and that a frigid winter doesn't mitigate the seriousness of climate change.

We won't be needing much radar anyway, at least for CNY the next week or so..(potential Wed/Thursday of next week)..

Well I guess this is why Montague was down yesterday.. Beginning October 4th, the KTYX WSR-88D radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Burlington, VT and located at Montague, NY will be down for approximately two weeks for an important upgrade. Technicians will refurbish and replace the pedestal, one of the most critical components of the radar, which is necessary for antenna rotation and positioning to capture data in all directions. The components are extremely heavy and will require the radome to be removed by crane and replaced when the work is completed. The radar and pedestal were designed to last 25 years, and this radar has exceeded its life-span. This activity is necessary to keep the radar functioning for another 20 years or more. The pedestal refurbishment is the third major project of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program, a series of upgrades that will keep our nation’s radars viable into the 2030s. NOAA’s National Weather Service, the United States Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration are investing $135 million in the eight year program. The first project was the installation of the new signal processor and the second project was the refurbishment of the transmitter. The fourth project will be the refurbishment of the equipment shelters. The Service Life Extension Program will be complete in 2023. During the downtime, adjacent radars include: KCXX – Burlington, VT KENX – Albany, NY KBUF – Buffalo, NY KBGM – Binghamton, NY.

This was the correlation I was hoping to see lol Granted it's based off 5 years..

Did you guys see the new study from the university of Michigan? That 1 beef hotdog or bacon, sausage, processed food takes an estimated 36 minutes off your life..I read an article that quoted the WHO, which compared it to smoking a pack of cigarettes..I love Nathan's beef hot dogs too lol Surprised Joey Chestnut is still kicking.. while a beef hot dog on a bun resulted in some 36 minutes lost “largely due to the detrimental effect of processed meat..

Here was the previous run.. Link

Hijacked this from another board.. New European seasonal, DJF.. Take it FWIW..

These are some really slow moving showers lol Montague radar has been down most of the day, just starting to lightly rain here.. Currently 61/59..

Here in N/CNY we picked 0.45" of liquid yesterday, clouds and showers keeping the highs semi cool with the lows torching lol We had a split of 62°/56° yesterday and the next two days are forecast mid 60's/Mid 50's, under mostly cloudy skies..

Recieving some light rain this morning, 0.29" in the gauge so far.. Sorry BW.. Looks like a batch of moderate showers heading that way..

Well I hear that every year but yet to see any correlation between warm falls and snowier winters.. Year after year we are above average month after month yet we continue to have below average snowfall.. Lake Ontario lake temps don't control the upper level pattern, without frequent cold outbreaks, a warm lake is meaningless...

Well I'll have to gree to disagree lol I don't know why anyone would want to go from summer to winter, fall is by far one of the nicest seasons lol Let's keep the lakes warm so anyone near it can torch till mid December lol

Sizzle Sizzle (for this time of year), especially as you head farther S/W..

For here in pulaski the average high the first week of October is 62°-64°, forecast high is 67°-70° all week.. Average lows are between 42°-44°, forecast lows are in the mid-upper 50s lol Much higher +anomalies for the minimums, not that it won't be warmer than average during the day lol

Maybe, just maybe the game will just be"showery".. Depends what model does best.. Euro for example has 0.4" between 12z and 18z but no measurable precipitation between 18z and 0z..

Deeper moisture will begin to reach WNY late Saturday evening, and gradually bring greater chances for rain showers Saturday night into the first half of Sunday. Weak upper level ridging should initially keep activity light, with just a tenth or two of an inch of QPF Saturday Night through midday Sunday. Lows Saturday night will be in the mid/upper 50s across the Lake Plains, with low 50s elsewhere. Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night will see the better chances for rain showers as the main surface low over the Western Great Lakes approaches the region. Isentropic lift combined with deep moisture within now diffluent flow aloft will likely bring widespread rain to our entire region. Highest chances for precip will be across WNY, and lower to the east where diffluent flow will be weaker. Upward to a half an inch or more of rain is possible within prolonged rain and drizzle later Sunday afternoon and through the overnight time period Monday there should still be plenty of shower activity around with weak low pressure approaching from the west. However, guidance hasn`t completely nailed down the timing and then when this whole system potentially departs the eastern Great lakes. Right now, it does look like there will be a general trend towards drier conditions as we head into Tuesday. Tuesday and beyond (end of this period), it appears Canadian sourced sfc high and also building heights aloft will likely provide dry weather across most of the forecast area. However, not all guidance supports this idea completely (ECMWF) and holds on to low end chances for a few showers. That said, it does look like temperatures will average above normal during this entire time frame with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Looking at the pulaski COOP which is missing several days this month unfortunately, highs have been right around average (71°) but lows have been quite a bit above average (54°), average min for the month is 48°..Now it's only updated till the 26th so the last 4 days of the month will lower these numbers but with the missing data earlier in the month it's hard to know the exact numbers lol

20 minute video on the"October surprise" storm of 2006, just posted on YouTube, for you buffalo folks..

12z euro looks like it came in north with the LP system..End result is heavier rains in the north country, we all still see some rain Sunday/Monday..