wolfie09

That's a pretty decent pattern on the 6z GFS, parade of northern stream disturbances with LE behind each..

Look where all the green is lol Lower elevation, valleys, doesn't have much to do with the lake..That's why those are the warmest spots in the summer as well..NY state is like 60% higher elevations, we just aren't one of them lol Wind direction is from the south...

Snowing in the lowville area and many of the tug cams.. Band pretty disorganized at the moment..

Next shortwave depicted by GOES-16 WV imagery over NE Montana (18Z Saturday) dives east-southeast across the Great Lakes on Sunday. By Sunday evening/night, this system will bring a period of light synoptic precipitation which looks like it will begin as an initial mix of rain or rain-snow (higher terrain) which should transition over to all snow for most locations by nightfall. With that said, thermal profiles are right on the cusp with H850T -4C/-5C per latest guidance. At this point, thinking it will be just cold enough to support a very minor snowfall event overnight. This will especially be the case across the higher terrain. Early estimates for lower elevations (lake plains) will be an inch or less, with 1-3 inches across the higher terrain above 1000 feet. The broad and weakening sfc low will track east-northeast across the region and will be found on the eastern end of lake Ontario by early Monday morning. While synoptic snows will diminish with the passage of the front, cyclonic west to northwest flow and falling H850T to -6C/-7C will prompt a lake response east and southeast of the Lakes on Monday. Monday night, there even could be some decent lake effect accumulations (+4 inches) southeast of Lake Ontario east of Rochester into Tuesday. Will need to monitor this and will mention this in the HWO.

Picked up 0.16" of rain with the passing SW, can feel more of a "chill" in the air, temp down to 39° from a high of 45°..

Well for this run the GFS just has a fropa Thanksgiving week, LR looks meh lol But it will change..

Another lake response (albeit brief), possible by weeks end.. An area of low pressure tracking near James Bay will drag a strong cold front through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Notably colder weather will follow with a period of lake induced precipitation later Thursday into Friday

Monday is close between rain and snow.. Timing is good but temps in the mid 30s, so wouldn't expect much to stick at this point..

A band of heavy lake effect precipitation continues to focus on the Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie this morning. It was all rain through 7AM, but that quickly changed this morning as temperatures aloft and at the surface cooled a few degrees from modest cold advection and dynamic/cooling from melting processes within the band of heavy lake effect. Precipitation type is now mainly wet snow across the Buffalo Metro area with a coating of slush on the grass. Updated the forecast to go with 2-3 inches of slushy accumulation for the Buffalo Metro area today, with most of that falling through midday. Temperatures (mid 30s) are not quite cold enough for efficient accumulation. The flow turns westerly (260- 270 degrees) this afternoon and tonight focusing the lake effect east of the lakes. This will move the band away from Buffalo and into the Southern Tier

Storm system at the end of the euro..

I'm pretty sure he will be on vacation, so lock it in..lol

Hopefully a sign of things to come..

It's the surface temperatures that are are clearly warmer near and SE of the lake, some lower 40s in there verbatim..

It also doesn't help when the lake is 4°-5° above average lol Obviously lack of elevation doesn't help the situation.. Even a wrap around/NW regime is rain..

Only 9 days away guys

Some decent rain totals overnight, early this morning, my guage stopped working overnight (lol) but all the C/N Oswego county WU stations have between 1.5"-2" of rain..

Rgem looks mainly west over Ontario, not that it matters lol Lake still has to much influence.. Already wasted 1.3" LE last event, might as well pile on lol It's a wet start to November.. Rgem has over 3" of liquid in typical fashion.

It's more about the"speration"..Here is Pittsburgh for example..As the difference grows so does each color.. Buffalo CWA just has a higher ceiling so they have more to fit lol Not saying I agree, just is what it is..

Boom!! Haha J/k but I do dig the new maps..I like how it shows exactly how much to expect..

A deep longwave trough will set up across eastern North America this period with bands of lake effect precipitation forming as the pool of cold air aloft crosses the Eastern Great Lakes. The amplified flow will first generate plumes of lake effect rain to the north- northeast of the Lakes (Niagara and Jefferson County) Friday Night before the bands settle slowly southward Saturday. Deeper moisture arrives east of Lake Ontario Saturday, increasing the intensity of lake effect precipitation. Thermal profiles are a bit too warm for snow overnight and Saturday with temperatures at 850 hPa between -3 and -5C. A shortwave will cross the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday, possibly disrupting the bands of lake effect due to increase shear. The lake effect precipitation will settle southward some as the shortwave crosses our region and then remain east to southeast of the Lakes Saturday Night and into Sunday behind the shortwave trough. As cold air deepens behind this shortwave, it will become marginally cold enough in the thermal profiles for snow...with the higher elevations east of both lakes standing the best chances for accumulating snow...this of a few inches at hill tops. As lake induced equilibrium levels rise towards 15 to 18K feet Saturday and Saturday Night there could be a few rumbles of thunder over the Lakes, and just inland...within the heavier portion of the lake precipitation band. Some graupel is also possible in the heart of the lake band. Overall higher QPF is likely east of Lake Erie, where an inch to inch and a half of liquid precipitation is possible along the shoreline and inland across the Southtowns. Upward of an inch of liquid equivalent is possible on the Tug Hill...this as a mix of rain and snow. Sunday the lake precipitation will weaken some...this as a mix of rain and snow and slowly edge northward as yet another shortwave trough digs into the Central Great Lakes. During the day Sunday, snow accumulation will be minor. Bands of Lake effect precipitation will continue to lift northward, possibly into Canada Sunday Night as the next shortwave trough nears our region. Setting the scene for early next week, a trough spanning the eastern half of the contiguous United States will allow a shortwave to round its base, causing the longwave trough axis to cross overhead of the area Monday. Meanwhile, to the west a broad ridge will span across the western half of the country. As the longwave axis crosses the region, the associated surface low overhead of the area Monday morning will be kicked east-northeast into the Gulf of Maine. As the low shifts east, northwest flow on the backside of the low, wrap around moisture and the cold air aloft will promote lake enhanced rain and snow showers southeast of both lakes, with snow showers from Sunday transitioning to mostly rain during the daytime hours Monday due to diurnal heating. By Monday night, the next upper level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest and causing the ridge to push the east as well as amplify slightly. However with northwest flow and lingering moisture, lake effect showers will continue through the overnight hours, transitioning back to snow with the lack of daylight.

Latest ONI indicating Weak Nina as of now.. Running a little behind last year at the same time.

Well as of now looks like the GFS is the outlier for Monday..CMC, iconic and Uk pretty much have a weak wave running south of us..See what the euro shows shortly..

GFS also has a SW on Saturday.. This leaves very little spacing for lake effect..

While I would take the snow shower activity, timing sucks and would be to warm to stick much verbatim..