wolfie09

Pretty weak sauce band here but I think it backed farther north than guidance had it..At least temp is below freezing lol 31° light snow..

Looks like Rodgers vs brady next week..

Chiefs hold on..All eyes on maholmes during the week, should be a fun one!!

Maholmes out with a concussion.. Cleveland within 5..

Blyr flow in the lake effect mixed layer starts out this evening from west-southwest and shifts more wnw late tonight into Monday morning as sfc trough to the northwest at least temporarily sinks through. Bigger change was more models, besides Canadian regional, now indicate that after this brief shift to the south of more focused low-level convergence and heavier lake effect snow, sfc low crossing Great Lakes late Monday into Monday night results in winds becoming more west-southwest again later Monday into Monday night. Didn`t go as far north as Canadian would suggest more into at least southern portions of Metro Buffalo, but do expect heavier snow to return to especially southern Erie county later Monday. Throughout this event through Monday night lake equilibrium levels only rise to 7-8kft. However, as the airmass is becoming colder, more of the lake convective layer will reside within DGZ, so looking at higher SLRs/fluffier snow. Since the fluff factor seems to be increasing and there is certainly potential that stronger band or two of snow could become stationary at times tonight through later Monday and Monday night, would expect snow totals over a foot over much of the warned area. Possible that edges of the warning area could need advisories, but not as set on that, so just handled the warnings for now and will let later shifts look into additional headlines. Away from the lake effect off Lake Erie, between the trough dropping through later tonight and widespread lighter snow and flurries spreading across the region from the shortwave trough, have some pops for all areas tonight even farther inland. Only area that sees relative minimum of snow will be eastern Lake Ontario region from early evening onward. Any light snow and temperatures dropping to at or below freezing for all areas late tonight and not moving much upward on Monday could result in slippery conditions at times later tonight into Monday for untreated roads. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure finishes crossing the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday. Behind the low, even colder air will pour across the Great Lakes with H85 temps dropping to -13c to -15c across the entire region. Several disturbances in upper levels moving across in this cold and relatively moist regime will result in continuation of the active period of lake effect snow. Even though the lake effect snow warning for southwest NYS only goes through daybreak on Tuesday, could see need for further advisory or potential warning headlines down the road. Also looks like these fairly widespread snow showers will begin to impact areas east of Lake Ontario again so may need some headlines there as well. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday will only top out in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Behind the passing system, 850H temps of around -15C to -18C will continue to allow for the potential for a lake response east of both lakes into the first half of Wednesday afternoon. Synoptic moisture will start to decrease by the early afternoon as the trough over the region tracks east, so any lake response looks weaker with light snow. With any lake response that may linger into later Wednesday, the main driving force would be an upstream connection to Georgian Bay/Lake Huron. Snowfall should generally be light, with greatest snow amounts near the south shore of Lake Ontario. An area of low pressure will track from near James Bay southeast to the NY/VT/QC border from Thursday morning through Friday morning. As this system tracks southeast, an associated warm front will cross the WNY and Northern Finger Lakes area, causing warming temperatures aloft where 850H temps warm to around -7C for Thursday afternoon. Some snow showers will accompany the passing warm front, with additional snow showers more likely with the weak passing cold front later on Thursday night. Behind the passing cold front Thursday night, lake enhanced and then lake effect snow is expected east and southeast of the lakes on and off through Saturday as 850H temperatures drop from around -9C Friday morning to around -15C by Saturday morning. Late Friday into Friday night, a shortwave trough will cross the area, bringing additional chances for snow showers across most of the region with its passage, in addition to any areas of lake effect snow. During this period temperatures will be around 5 to as much as 10 degrees below normal, except on Thursday and Friday where temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

Next timeframe of interest east/SE of Ontario, Tues night/Wed..Brief multi lake connection..

New map through Tuesday morning..

And of course the Canadians are back at it again

At least the next potential event has a little more cold with it..Band doesn't look stationary but take what you can get..

I think the spotter ripped us off, looks more like 0.2" to me..

Here we have suffered more with the lows as the Avg high through the first 1/3 of the month was 30° and an average low of 20°.. We have had a couple days quite a bit above average this past week so those numbers are sure to go up next update..

Yeah that's the new "pattern" now but wasn't always like that lol The warmth from the lake hurts mostly during early and late season events..The wind does blow stronger out of the west-wsw which leads to more upslope and less of a band but places like Altmar/orwell don't have much elevation either..(more than pulaski though).. Pulaski had 200+ in 00/01, 02/03, 03/04, 06/07, 07/08, 08/09 and 10/11.. Maybe this is the"norm" and that was just a great decade lol

Yup, last 8 winter months (included Nov and March) pulaski has 85", little over 10" a month..We have become NYC climo lol

Nope.. That's just the liquid equivalent lol Just had no precipitation.. Started with a little graupel but switched over to flurries and light snow which is what we had most of the night...

Several disturbances will traverse through a thermal trough that will extend from the Upper Great Lakes across Lake Ontario during the Monday night through Tuesday night time period. Unlike the days leading into this period...a colder airmass with H85 temps of -10 to -12c will certainly support enough instability over the lakes for pure lake effect. This will focus accumulating lake snows east of both lakes. Headlines will likely be needed for this 36 hour period. The trough will push south of Lake Ontario on Wednesday...and with a -15c H85 airmass in place...fairly widespread lake snow showers can be anticipated for the western counties. Ridging Wednesday night with non-diurnal temp trend.

2" of precip and pulaski picked 0.05" ..lol

New map, not like it matters anymore lol Rgem gave me more liquid then I had frozen

Looks like some more false hope lol Most of this is from the next couple clippers..

Finally starting to accumulate more efficiently as temp has dropped from 36 to 32.9.. Precip picking up as well..

Starting to snow a little better with a light coating on the deck, guess that's a start lol

Well 18z had 1/2"-3/4" liquid here by 1am and I've had flurries and light snow so not off to a good start lol

Next 60 hrs 3k vs Rgem

Rgem

Fulton and pulaski have 17.6"..Syracuse has 17.0".. Compared to avg Oswego county may be the worst lol

You need to extend that triangle north through most of Oswego county lol