wolfie09

Nice increase on the snow map.. Probably just jinxed it lol

New map.. If some of guidance is correct with a multi lake connection overnight and favorable 270-280 flow then these numbers may be a little to low...Both "notable" events this year they had pulaski at about half of what actually verified..

Rgem FWIW.. I'll be rooting for it lol

Somewhat of a slow system..As it takes its time moving East..

Another day/night of radar watching lol Getting started on a WSW flow.

The follow up storm is fairly similar..

Still makes it pretty far north but weakens as the secondary takes over..

Plenty cold too but not crazy cold which is good lol Still 4-5 days out..

European has some company..

Nice jump north on the Canadian..

It is especially with band placement IMO.. Precipitation amount are hard to trust on any model to be honest.. Last event I actually followed the Global models for band placement and it worked out pretty good.. Gfs for example gives us a nice dose of snow overnight into tomorrow afternoon, inch line practically to pulaski.. Here's hoping lol

Once again the rgem is more than double any model around here.. Becoming hard to trust it.. Ironically last event it had hardly anything here.. Nws obviously isn't buying it.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snowfall amounts on teh Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Nice look Friday morning.. Could be it for a little while..

Cmc took a step backwards as well..Way south..

0z RGEM FWIW..

Winds look to start West-WSW before veering NW..As usual going to be a transition zone somewhere.. Granted I take SR guidance with a grain of salt lol..

Looking at the EPS pressure spread it seems the primary is pretty far north, somewhere near L.ERIE before"jumping ship"..

I was just going to post er on the side of caution lol Rgem for east of Ontario has been to wet last 3 events..

After a mostly dry morning, light snow chances increase west to east Sunday afternoon out ahead of an approaching mid level trough tracking across the Great Lakes region Sunday night and into Monday. Uncertainty still remains fairly high in regards to the synoptic scale dynamics as this feature moves across the Great Lakes. Long range guidance indicates that this shortwave will propogate fast enough to catch up with the longwave ridge, effectively creating a more zonal flow pattern and limiting the amount of vorticity advection taking place overhead. Additionally, model guidance signals a better organized low pressure system tracking east across the Central CONUS, which looks to pass our area to the south. This system may clip the Southern Tier with greater chances for snow Monday afternoon through the evening hours. The placement and track of this system remains highly uncertain due to the spread in the model solutions even with the newest 12z guidance, with the latest ECMWF bringing this system far enough north to bring widespread precip to most of the forecast area. Keeping only chance PoPs through Monday evening until better concensus can be established. Increasing NNW flow and marginal 850mb temps may lead to a few light lake effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie for Tuesday and Wednesday, though this will be highly dependant on the track of the aforenentioned low as it passes to the east. Highs through the rest of the period will be in the mid to upper 20s for most of the area, with lows in the mid to upper teens and single digits east of Lake Ontario.

As the low tracks over southern Quebec on Thursday night, low-level flow becomes more westerly/then northwesterly which along with H85 temps down to -9c will support some lake response most vigorous it appears off Lake Ontario where low-level convergence into the Tug Hill is strongest. Forecast soundings showing sufficient moisture and lake equilibrium levels to around 8kft (Lake Erie) and 11kft (Lake Ontario) easily should support solid advisory amounts east of both lakes and possible warning amounts of 7"/12hr or 9"/24hr. Main issue is steadily shifting winds, so that *could* limit total amounts. No watches for this relatively shorter event attm, but will keep mention in HWO. Later headlines, either warnings or advisories are likely though. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A potent shortwave trough will track across the North Country Thursday night into Friday and additional synoptic moisture and lift will intensify lake snows especially east of Lake Ontario. A secondary cold front will move through late Friday morning and lake effect bands with shift south into the southern shore of Lake Ontario and western Southern Tier. The mobile nature of the lake bands off of both lakes with the passing front will limit some of the snowfall amounts for any one location. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible for Friday with the lake bands. Behind the passing cold front, 850H temperatures will cool to around -16C through Friday night. Lake snows will likely stick around through Friday night as an upper level trough remains overhead. Areas outside of lake bands may see around an inch or so as the cold front moves through the region Friday. Temperatures will reach the upper 20s to low 30s Friday with lows in the single digits to teens Friday night. As the trough over the region tracks east and ridging increases over the area, the lake response off of both lakes will diminish through the day on Saturday. Chance POPs for snow showers southeast of the lakes will be in place for most of the day on Saturday, and any snow showers that do occur should be light with only around a half inch possible

European was weaker with the high then 0z..1020 isobar was in CNY and now it's in canada.. Strength and location will obviously be key...

850 low gets pretty far north but still plenty cold enough for a synoptic system..