wolfie09

Kbgm maps..

Para FWIW..

Gfs went for the syracuse area with just under an inch LE..

Where ever any stronger banding sets up could overachieve(or at least hit the high number lol) but it's hard to trust the models wrt precip..

Here is the advisory.. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 9 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

A weak sfc low over the Upper Ohio Valley late tonight will then track across our forecast area on Tuesday. While this will guarantee that our region will experience wintry precipitation...there is still some uncertainty as to how far north the mixed pcpn will get. At this juncture...a wintry mix is anticipated for the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late tonight into Tuesday with snow and sleet accumulations forecast to be in the vcnty of 1-2 inches. Meanwhile sites further north should pick up mainly wet snow to the tue of 3-5 inches. Given the more northerly track of the system and after collaboration with adjacent offices...have expanded the area for the winter wx advisory for the remaining counties (Ern Lake Ontario region) Tuesday night...colder air in the wake of the exiting sfc low will enable any residual mixed pcpn to change back to just snow. Snow amounts expected Tues night will range from an inch or so over the western counties to as much as three more inches east of Lake Ontario. -- End Changed Discussion

Euro FWIW this point in the game..

Gfs kind of a mess for D7.. Similar situation as this one but it brings more warmth with it..If HP retreats to quickly the storm goes north..

D7

Everything now is just model noise lol Locked in at 4"-8" ..25 mile "wobbles" are to be expected..No sense worrying about an exact number lol

Para and GFS.. Ratios are pretty close to 10-1.. Time to sit back and wait now..

Nws seems hesitant to issue advisories farther east for what ever reason lol I think next update they might..

Should of added buffalo, didn't realize consensus has right around 4ish there..So Buffalo North and east lol

Looks like a solid 4"-8" for most (Roc on N/E), not a bad little system if it comes to fruition..

One thing about RGEM is has much more snow for New England then most guidance..Not saying it won't happen but definitely somewhat of an outlier over there.. I guess it's not that different from the european just a little heavier on the precip..

Well looks like I'm the bad guy in here lol This trend has obviously helped the"northern" folks as yesterday it looked like a fringe job.. Soon we will be congratulating watertown lol

Sign me up for the HRRR..Still in its very LR which is anything after hour 3 lol

As of now WPC keeps the highest potential for 4" to the east..

Para brings the Low to Rochester, still plenty cold for snow..Has a similar look as the Global Canadian..

canadian fwiw

D7 potential just like on the european...

Primary definitely holding on longer on these 18z runs.. We will know if it's real or not at 0z.