wolfie09

Icon came in a bit north as well fwiw .

Gfs is still solid..

Mix gets to Syracuse on the GFS..You can probably add a few miles lol Soon I'll be mixing.. Maybe the gfs is to far north.

Kbgm map

The main focus through the short term period will revolve around a relatively minor snow event late Monday night through Tuesday night. A well defined mid level wave will cross Iowa Monday night, then open up and de-amplify with time as it reaches the eastern Great Lakes by late Tuesday. At the surface low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Monday night before moving along the NY/PA border Tuesday. The entire system surface and aloft will be weakening with time as it moves east towards our area. The snow in this system will come in several different batches, as is often the case with synoptic systems. An initial wing of warm advection and isentropic upglide will reach the western Southern Tier by late Monday night, then spread into the Buffalo and Rochester areas by, or shortly after daybreak Tuesday, finally reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region in the afternoon. The steadiest snow and best accumulations will focus with this initial period of snow. Later Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night some light snow will linger, with a minor uptick in coverage overnight Tuesday night as weak DPVA crosses the eastern Great Lakes with the mid level wave, and northeast flow off Lake Ontario provides a little added moisture. Snowfall with this system continues to look minor, with 2-4 inches total expected in most locations. The area that is most likely to be in the higher end of that range is from the Genesee Valley to western Finger Lakes where forcing and moisture look to maximize. Main change with this forecast cycle was to bring POPS and measurable snow a little farther north across the eastern Lake Ontario region given the farther north trend in model guidance. Precipitation type will be all snow for most of the area. The GFS and GEM bring a minor warm layer aloft into the western Southern Tier Tuesday, while the NAM keeps the column colder. Given the model uncertainty, stayed close to continuity with a chance of sleet mixing in across the Southern Tier. The system will exit off the east coast Wednesday morning. Lingering moisture and northerly upslope flow may still produce a few light snow showers south of Lake Ontario in the morning, but this should end in the afternoon.

Kbuf updated map, general 2"-4" less north more south..

Some better than others, still some spread..

Total precipitation on the euro.. As LEK said need to watch out for a potential dry slot if the system gets to far north.. I would also caution against WB Kuchera maps which are always way higher than PW.. Not terribly cold aloft, more so at the surface..

Models have been trending towards the icon lol

Case in point lol

Ukmet still brings the low over the southern tier.. Amazing we can't get a little more precip with a track that far north, it's like a shield over Oswego county lol In reality we are probably the"jump over" zone as the primary dies and the secondary takes control..

Stupid secondary is killing me lol Bringing winds out of the E/NE/ENE allowing the higher elevations to my east to rob whatever available moisture..I much rather a true SWFE lol (haven't seen 12z yet)

Nam continue to trend north.. Rgem is pretty far north as well..Still a weak system just gets snow farther north lol

Managed to make it just below zero (-0.2) , forecast low was 9°.. I thought we had a shot, clear skies, fresh snow pack, light NNW winds.

18z Ggem much more muted.. We haven't had many"super" dink and dunk events (2/4-3/5) actually I haven't had one lol Hopefully enough precipitation makes it up here

Well para is back in business and does not disappoint lol

Miller B season on the gfs..Seems every storm heads inland before hitting a roadblock lol

Congrats man!! Welcome to the triple digits club lol

Gfs expanded the precip a little north verbatim..

Icon gets it into southern NY and so does the navy not that those models should be trusted much lol

I guess something is better than nothing, this could if been mix/rain of it wasn't for the HP.. Rgem sends upper 30s into the southern tier..

Larry king passed away.. Rip https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/23/us/larry-king-dies-trnd/index.html

Our attention then turns to the next storm to potentially impact our region Monday night/Tuesday, possibly lingering into Tuesday night. 23/12Z Canadian has come back into much better agreement with a more northerly track as continues to be advertised by the 23/12Z ECMWF/GFS. Given the current scenario, the storm will track from the mid Mississippi Valley/lower Ohio Valley Monday night, then northeast through Ohio into northern Pennsylvania by Tuesday night. One of the main forecast challenges continues to be the significant weakening of this storm system as it starts to impact our region. Moisture looks fairly limited and forcing is not that impressive. Putting it all together, moisture in the form of light snow should make into southwestern NYS by the second half of Monday night, then spread across areas south of Lake Ontario on Tuesday, possibly lingering across southeastern portions of our forecast area Tuesday night. Chances for the better accumulating snows will remain toward the NY/PA line. Would still not rule out low end advisory amounts across the higher terrain well south of Buffalo. If the system tracks any further north, will have to continue to monitor trends for any p- type issues across southern areas as warmer air could make a push a bit further north if this were to occur. As of now, still appears any rain/snow mix would remain just south of the NY/PA line. Otherwise, daytime highs on Tuesday will be mainly the 20s, with some very low 30s possible across far western NY. As for lows, expect single digits and teens east of Lake Ontario, with generally low to mid 20s elsewhere.