wolfie09

Hrrr still delivering the goods this evening starting around 6-7pm...Picked up slightly more than an inch this morning..

Looks like tonight we could have a better flow for my back yard.. Lake snows have become organized east of Lake Ontario this morning with the arrival of a mesolow that tracked eastward across Lake Ontario overnight into this morning. Eventually this more widespread lake effect will consolidate into a well defined plume that will be focused between Watertown and the Tug Hill on a 260 flow during the afternoon and the first half of tonight. A cap rising to more than 10k ft will encourage rates of one to two inches an hour for that area between 21 and 06z with snowfall of 5 to 10 inches. Like the activity off Lake Erie...a veering steering flow late tonight will push the band south across the southern half of the Tug to Oswego county. Similar snowfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour will be expected for the second half of tonight with several more inches of accumulation anticipated. For Wednesday...the 300-310 flow will promote multi-band lake snows south-southeast of Lk Ontario with 1-3 inches of accumulation expected.

Snowing pretty good at the moment, big fluffy flakes..Kind of a weird looking band but I'll take it lol

Some guidance shows a little interaction with a weak coastal system..

Could be some widespread light snow tomorrow morning..

Riding a very fine line here, flurry spitting out every once in a while.

Is the HRRR consistently wrong? Definitely a possibility lol The model does like to be to far south with band placement.. It will be pretty stationary until this evening when the band starts to drop south, so where it sets up makes or breaks this event Imby.. The initial band looks a touch north of here but the stuff on the western end looks farther south, so we'll see lol

Looks like a close call here.. That band may set up just to my north, not sure yet lol

Receiving some steady snow this morning as the band is getting ready to set up north..

New map..

https://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/

Good ole transition zone.. Turning attention to eastern Lake Ontario region, after a period of more widespread light snow later Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, expect lake enhanced snows to redevelop east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a cap rising to at least 10k ft and strong west-southwest convergent flow pointed at central and northern Tug Hill region, amounts over a foot look likely in those areas from late Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. Winds becoming more west- northwest later Tuesday night will eventually make this band more transient. Away from the Tug Hill, expect snow totals in the 3-6 inch range. West winds gusting over 30 mph and temps in the 20s will result in better chance of blowing snow and reduced visibility in open areas east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Lower temps will also allow even the lower elevations to see accumulating snow unlike what occurred during the last heavy lake enhanced snow event this past weekend. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Potent upstream shortwave trough swings through the eastern Great Lakes early Wednesday morning. With its passage, veering wind flow to the northwest will shove lake snows off both lakes to the south. Deep synoptic moisture to start the period will then gradually deplete as the shortwave trough advances east with lake snows weakening by Wednesday afternoon. With the moving bands and shorter fetch of the lakes, accumulations will likely be limited to an inch or two, possibly a bit more near the southeast end of Lake Ontario where 3 to 4 inches will be possible. By late Wednesday afternoon, falling equilibrium levels and the incoming surface ridge will further suppress snowfall accumulations. Winds will also be in the process of backing to the west by Wednesday evening and then to the southwest Wednesday night. Although weak, there may be just enough support left to produce some minor accumulations as a lake snow band lifts north into and across the Buffalo Metro area. Wednesday night, any remaining lake snows will end as H850T warm and inversion heights fall. Later on, a warm front will then track northeast across the eastern Great Lakes, which might produce some minor accumulations as we head into Thursday.

Yeah they did the same thing they do every event lol They put the High end as the expected.. Except for east of Ontario of course

Suppression city on the euro.. Could be another impending dry spell lol

Can't trust the euro at face value but it has two "westerly" events during the week, 260-280 vector or so..

Warning issued for Oswego county as well.. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The most persistent and heaviest snow will occur on the Tug Hill Plateau Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

I know it's hard to do BW but try to slow your breathing when you have an attack..Most people breath to fast and shallow which leads to hyperventilating and feeling Dizzy, light headed or can even pass out..It will also cause your heart to race as your body is off balanced.. https://www.healthline.com/health/panic-attack-vs-anxiety-attack

Rgem through 84.. Good week for the tug on top of what they have already seen and more to come verbatim.. Nothing they can't handle obviously lol

New RGEM through Wednesday early afternoon..

1.6" here, snow starting to"slow" down..

Yeah but that's till Thursday afternoon, NWS forecast runs through Wed morning..

Probably working on about an inch lol Continue to receive"steady" snow, 28°..

Looks about right as they are going with the Canadian.. Reg and NH Canadian guidance packages superior to most other available model products and will be leaned on for this portion of the forecast.

Not really understanding why lewis and jefferson have headlines but not Oswego..lol

Precip picking up considerably here, big fat wet flakes although it's hard to tell by picture.. Another dink and dunk night lol