wolfie09

Kbuf increased totals slightly..

Canadian is pretty good for Oswego county WRT enhancement, sharp cutoff to the south verbatim..It did cut down quite a bit though..

Hoping the para is correct here..lol

Yeah just like the 3k..

Sref pretty much ride the HV, solid enhancement..

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1254334

It will be close..

Looks like the secondary is acting as a conveyer belt to the dying primary lol

Maybe the possible heavier precipitation rates could overcome BL issues..

Para has a quick paste job sat morning.. Surface 32-33 verbatim..

Gfs composite starting to show some enhancement east of Ontario but it's short lived compared to the Canadians.. It also has a marginal burst of synoptic snow sat morning..

Kbuf first call..

Rgem still showing an impressive event.. Little north of previous runs..Still a day away before SR models become useful..

3k looks fine..It's in the LR and just starting verbatim.. Surface is right at freezing..

12z vs 18z NAM..

Lake to lake connection? That's usually a solid band not upslope..They also say "close proximity" to the tug lol Obviously higher elevations will always win out.. Saturday Night Snow showers likely before midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Stacked low over the Upper Mississippi valley Friday morning will move to Illinois/Indiana by Friday evening, while its associated surface occlusion will advance from the Upper Ohio Valley to the southwest corner of New York state. Warmer air ahead of the system will allow the nearly all the precipitation that arrives by afternoon into western New York ahead of the occlusion to fall as rain. Temperatures will climb well into the 40s across the lake plains. The main surface low will move into the Great Lakes and weaken Friday night as a secondary wave develops along the occlusion near New Jersey and then takes over as the primary low as it moves into New England Saturday. Colder air will wrap into the area Friday night with a change over to wet snow, but snow accumulations through Saturday will be limited to an inch or two for most, with better accumulations confined to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario where significant accumulation is possible. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Maturing low pressure centered over central New England Saturday night will travel northeast across Maine and eventually enter New Brunswick by Sunday evening. In its wake, west-northwesterly flow will support a few to several inches of accumulating snow east of both lakes. Diving into the details, temperatures at 850mb throughout this period will average around -8C throughout the majority of the period. While this isn`t cold enough for pure lake effect, the west- northwest flow along with wrap around moisture from the departing low will support lake enhancement off of both lakes Erie and Ontario. Of the two lakes, snows off of Lake Ontario, especially locations in close proximity of the Tug Hill, will have the better chances for accumulating snows due to possibilities of lake to lake connections. Though not as favorable, the snows off of Lake Erie look best to accumulate across the Chautauqua Ridge. Chances for lake snows will continue throughout the day on Sunday with a couple of inches of additional snowfall possible.

Watches issued for Oswego, jefferson and Lewis..

The model just sucks at showing lake induced precipitation..

European jumps 100s of miles run to run lol

Not much different than the RGEM which shows plenty of it lol NWS is only calling for-6c-8c which they claim is good enough..

European is as stingy as they come lol Which will probably verify.. Granted when the model shows feet here we see nothing lol

European is definitely farther east with the stuff on sat morning than most other guidance..