wolfie09

You know we have no cold when 10-1 gives you more snow than Kuchera during lake effect lol That's what the Canadian shows for next event..

Obviously the GEFS is pretty low resolution..

Wpc doesn't seem to impressed especially considering some of this could be liquid and marginal temps..

^^^ To be fair that includes a clipper/LES event after that time frame.. Kbuf receives 0.5" through 84..

So far the camps have stuck together so I'd expect the european to be pretty far west as well..

At the end of the day it's nowcasting like every event lol We have a thousand different models with a thousand different solutions, nearly impossible to ever have a "consensus"..

I guess this is worst case scenario at the moment..

Ukmet still pretty far west..

Very early call here would be 2"-4" Saturday and another 4"-8" sat night/early Sunday..6"-12" total from syracuse to Pulaski (more on the tug)Seems reasonable..Snow will be heavy and wet but I grew up in NYC/NJ that's what we do..lol Should have some decent staying power and be "picturesque"..As much as I would love the Canadian guidance I have to see some SR guidance back it a little lol

Another big hit on the Canadian..

Still in its LR..

Para has most of the enhancement east of Erie..

Para is pretty good for most but unlike the Canadian guidance doesn't really show much enhancement east/se of Ontario..Lighter precipitation on NW flow with marginal temps mehh lol

Para is all snow sat morning, heaviest just to my west..

Wouldn't be surprised if this was snow not rain like the 3k has.. Would give us a morning burst..

I'm thinking the rgem is a little overzealous lol

3k has 6"+ just in a few hours sat morning, enhancement starts afternoon/evening.. Would be nice to catch a little synoptic too lol

Nam products have almost no rain as we have some disorganized showers around..3k gives us a few hours of heavy synoptic sat morning..

Yeah temps are going to hold down accumulation some.. Normally we would get smoked in this type of scenario.. Easy 1'-2'+ if we had our normal enhancement ratios lol Still 1.5" of liquid, almost all snow is nothing to sneeze at..Heck I'd be happy to manage 10-1 ratios..

I'm guessing this is just synoptic here.. Which looks about right lol

Probably because the European and gfs have been erratic while Canadian guidance has been fairly steady..WPC track seems to side with the Canadians as well..

I never said it would be pretty It depends what guidance is correct.. Gfs models are colder than the Canadian guidance because of the NW flow compared to West flow.. Precip rates almost always trump temps, rgem 1.5" LE and still snowing, Ratios will suck for sure lol

In terms of where this ends up we have 3 camps..The western camp which includes the two european models, eastern camp the two GFS models and the middle camp the Canadian models.. Which ever track is right will determine the wind direction. European models have more of a WSW flow.. Canadian models have more of a west flow which ends WNW/NW.. Gfs models are farthest east and have more of a NW flow..

Looks like buffalo going with the Canadian.. This will be an active weather period with above normal temperatures steadily dropping back TOWARDS normal. The trend towards colder weather will allow frequent bouts of pcpn to fall mainly as snow with plowable amounts of snow possible in the lake snow belts east of both lakes. Large stacked low will gradually make its way across the mid western states Friday night...while an occlusion reaching out across our forecast area will advance to Lake Ontario. This will support some rain that will transition to wet snow overnight. A general inch or so of accumulation will be possible. The large slow moving low will track to the east across Pennsylvania on Saturday while a wave along the occlusion will develop into a deep secondary storm over New England. We can expect fairly widespread snow showers in this scenario...but any real snow of consequence should be confined to the Eastern Lake Ontario region where a few inches of accumulation will be possible. As the parent mid level storm exits across the St Lawrence valley Saturday night...a west to northwest flow in its wake will support accumulating lake snows east of both lakes. A minimum of several inches of snow can be expected near and east of the Chautauqua ridge and especially in the vicinity of the Tug Hill. The lake snows will continue in these areas through Sunday with additional accumulations expected. Leaned on CanNH guidance for bulk of this period.