wolfie09

Rgem gets the buffalo crew involved with some SW enhancement from the next disturbance..

So unlike the NAM products the RGEM has very little if any snow early tomorrow but has 2" of lake enhanced precipitation

Haha..Yeah haven't even eaten dinner yet..3k also snowier during the day tomorrow..Was trying to go out on a good note lol

We are pretty much the pivot point as it rotates around.. Not looking at another model tonight, goodnight.

Fwiw NAM coming in snowier for tomorrow..

Of course I'll be battling R/S all morning.. Soon as I post it 0z HRRR comes in weak sauce lol

Latest from the Wpc..

Then why are you here? You bring Zero value to this board.. Go find another forum to troll..

So we may not have much separation if any between events..3K nam has most of sat night being an upslope event before a single band forms for Sunday and starts to back north ahead of the next disturbance Sunday night..

Canadian pretty much has snow everyday for the next week or so..

Kbgm from this morning.. Another round of snow will move off Lake Ontario late Saturday as westerly winds align over the water. Several inches of snow will fall over Northern Oneida County Saturday night, with additional snow expected Sunday. Storm total snow amounts will exceed a foot in spots, especially over northwestern sections of Oneida County. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 355 AM Update... Attention turns to combination of synoptic wrap-around and lake-enhanced snow for the second half of the weekend. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for northern Oneida County. For Saturday night, large low stacks over New England, placing our region in zone of synoptic wrap around including Atlantic moisture in the mid-upper levels. At the same time, lake moisture will be contributed to the lower levels via westerly yet cyclonic flow. 850mb temperatures will actually be pretty marginal for lake response - about 7-9C below freezing - yet with synoptic moisture seeding from above, there could still lead to decent lake effect snow. There is considerable uncertainty, but the potential will be there for development of Huron-to-Ontario multilake connection, especially by Sunday. For this reason, the Watch for northern Oneida County was extended through the day. Indeed if the Canadian model pans out, we may even see accumulating lake effect continue right through Sunday night along and north of the New York Thruway. Further south, at least scattered lake effect snow showers will occur courtesy of Lake Erie moisture via westerly flow and synoptic wrap around moisture aloft.

^^^ That's the model of choice for buffalo not sure what binghamton is going with.. Kbuf was riding the Canadian at first but jumped off board lol

This is a handy tool I like to use for wind flow.. I always do westerly in quotations because it can be anywhere from 260-280 flow.. Basically Central and northern Oswego county.. Now a traditional WNW flow is 290-300 degrees which traditionally favors southern Oswego county.. matts area may need more of a 300-310 flow which is considered NW BUT West which may be why its been hard to get a sustained band.. Syracuse proper needs more of a 310-320 vector aka NW flow..

ECMWF model of choice through the period

Well it is a "westerly" flow, prob 250-270 vector..NW winds happen towards the end of the event as the system pulls NE but we start to lose the synoptic moisture..

That Christmas event had expected at 7" and high end 13"..I picked up 13" so you never know lol I'm more in favor of the"range" than the exact number..

They leave the door open.

Looks good except the lowville area imo.. That's"lower" elevation..They won't be able to upslope which is why the NWS has 6" there..

Nws added a 18"-24" zone but decreased around it lol

Several bouts of enhancement and LES on the European over the next 6-7 days.. Euro is also the only model showing most of the enhancement closer to the lake as a mix, not buying it lol

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Still some discrepancy wrt Saturday morning.. Both GFS models continue to show a strong band of precip slowly moving through.. Gfs OP has most of it as rain which I'm not so sure about..Para is colder and mostly snow..This could make or break this event for parts of CNY that get left out of any enhancement..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridging over the Adirondacks this morning will give way to a mature cyclone that will lumber across the Upper Mid West. The large disturbance will push an occlusion across our region late today and tonight. While dry weather will be in place through midday...light rain (mixed rain/snow Srn Tier) will develop ahead of the occlusion later this afternoon for the western counties. It will also become quite breezy...esp across the Southern Tier and in the vcnty of the Chautauqua ridge in particular. A robust LLJ will promote downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph between Lk Erie and the ridge...and also across the higher terrain. The occlusion will steadily push across the western counties tonight. Mixed rain and snow will change to mainly wet snow overnight within the colder air in the wake of the occlusion. Many areas will pick up a coating of snow...with an inch of two possible over the Srn Tier and as much as three inches on the Tug Hill. The front will continue to make its way across the Eastern Lake Ontario region Saturday morning...where widespread steady wet snow could accumulate another three to five inches. A winter storm watch is in effect for this area. The remainder of the region will pick up scattered snow showers that could leave a coating to as much as an inch across the higher terrain well south of Buffalo and Rochester. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...Plowable Snowfall Expected East of Both Lakes... A large...stacked cyclone directly over our forecast area Saturday evening will gradually open up and exit across New England late Saturday night and Sunday. Relatively cold air with a very moist environment will then interact with the lakes to provide lake enhanced snowfall across the region...especially in the snowbelts east of both lakes. As much as a foot of snow will be possible in the vcnty of the Tug Hill during this 24 hour period with lesser amounts forecast for the Chautauqua ridge. The remainder of the region will pick up an inch or so accumulation. Lake enhanced snows should persist through Sunday night for areas east of Lake Erie and also along the south shore of Lake Ontario... although a lowering cap will limit additional accumulations. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next disturbance within the longwave trough pushes across the Lower Great lakes on Monday...producing scattered snow showers for the bulk of our region. Lake enhanced areas east of each lake could pick up a couple inches of accumulation. Relative lull Monday night into Tuesday with weak ridging ahead of next clipper. Still some lake snows possible though east and southeast of the lakes. Next clipper to impact the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with another round of snow showers. Accumulations should not be significant. Warm advection ahead of next front to support the chance for more light snow on Thursday. ECMWF model of choice through the period

Looks like the NAM is still having some issues..

Gfs was more impressive regarding enhancement, actually the model keeps LES going until Wednesday due to a couple disturbances moving through.. Canadian was also wolfie approved at 6z.. Well at least it's active..