wolfie09

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Cold air passing over the Eastern Great Lakes this weekend will bring the potential for accumulating lake effect snow, with the possibility for significant amounts. Lake snows are most likely Saturday night through Sunday night. Saturday, the surface coastal low quickly departs off to the northeast towards the Atlantic coast. In its wake, cold air advection nudges 850 hPa temperatures down to around -8C/-10C by Saturday evening. It will likely be until after the upper level trough of low pressure passes overhead that lake snows will begin...with the best timing Saturday night and into Sunday. There will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will be slightly steeper. The 00Z ECMWF is most aggressive with ending the lake snows, pushing a surface ridge towards our region Monday, while the GFS and Canadian maintain the potential for lake snows into Monday.

Not much wrt synoptic on the icon but boy I'd love to have it's wind flow lol

Rgem pretty much is the HRRR but 15 or so miles north.. Going to be a close call between a couple inches and something a little more decent..

Wish I could believe this lol Nws did bump pulaski up an inch so there's that lol Probably bump it north 10-15 miles..

The forecast becomes much less certain as we head into late Friday and Friday night. The vertically stacked system to our west will further weaken as it shifts east. Meanwhile, several models runs (GFS/ECMWF/ Canadian) show a sfc wave developing along the cold front. This could lead to a slower departure of the cold front as it advances eastward. The GFS rapidly develops and deepens the sfc frontal wave, while all other solutions are much less aggressive and weaker with the coastal sfc low for Friday night into Saturday. With this much uncertainty have kept high end chance POPs from late Friday afternoon into Saturday. Also, if the front slows there could be some minor accumulating snows, especially across the higher terrain as colder air deepens across the region. Saturday, the sfc coastal low quickly depart off to the northeast along the coast. In its wake, cold air advection nudges H850T down to around -8C/-10C by Saturday evening while the vertically stacked mid-level low aloft swinging in over the region. Expecting numerous snow showers during the day, before lake effect takes shape Saturday night through the rest of this period.

Para

I wouldn't mind if it developed farther west and a little earlier..

Oh no doubt but the secondary could be real as all guidance shows it and we are starting to get closer..

Not the best trend for this weekend..

Becoming more of a coastal system..Light westerly flow verbatim, see how it trends the next few days..

Ever since the models started showing a secondary the initial LES this weekend looks meh lol

Whatever we receive will be at a lower LSR with a marginal set up..(Compared to what we are accustomed to)

Wether it's right or wrong it's hard to find a more consistent model than the RGEM..

First wave of synoptic snow activity pushing through the eastern Lake Ontario this afternoon. In wake of this activity, starting to see the first signs of activity developing over Lake Erie ahead of a shortwave trough digging across southern Ontario. The forcing and some additional moisture from the trough along with 850 mb temperatures lowering to near -10c will be enough to continue to see a lake response east and northeast of the lakes through tonight. Setup is a bit better off Lake Ontario where snowfall amounts could reach 3 inches, but likely remain under 2 inch off Lake Erie with lower inversion heights and less moisture. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A lake response will continue into Tuesday off of both lakes as a shortwave trough approaches from the Upper Great Lakes. Westerly winds off of Lake Ontario will initially keep the band over the Tug Hill Tuesday morning. As the trough approaches from the northwest, winds over Lake Ontario will shift to a slightly more west-southwest direction pulling the Lake Ontario band north some for the mid afternoon into evening on Tuesday night, focusing on the southern half of Jefferson County. Equilibrium heights on Tuesday of around 5k ft and 850H temps of only around -10C will be a limiting factor for areas over/east of Lake Ontario. Off of Lake Erie, even less favorable conditions will be in place the first half of Tuesday with 850H temps warming from around -10C early to around -7C by late morning ahead of the approaching trough, and equilibrium heights of around 3k-4k ft. This should result in a minimal lake response into early Tuesday afternoon. SW flow off of Lake Erie will place the weak band over the northern half of Erie County, including the Buffalo Metro area. Behind the passing trough axis, 850H temperatures will cool again to near -10C, allowing some lake snows to re-develop later in the afternoon east and northeast of the lake. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 30s, with some upper 20s possible for the higher terrain. Tuesday night, 850H temperatures of around -10C will continue through the early overnight before weak warm air advection begins Wednesday morning. This will cause 850H temps to warm to around -5C by Wednesday morning, essentially shutting down the lake response by Wednesday morning. Increased ridging will also help lower equilibrium heights across the area as well. Tuesday through Wednesday morning, an additional 2 to 4 inches of snowfall is expected northeast of Lake Ontario with the higher amounts on the Tug Hill and southern Jefferson County. Off Lake Erie, another inch to half an inch is expected, mainly limited to Northern Erie County. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.

I'm thinking the HRRR is probably too far south with band placement..It was with the dec 26th event and it's the southern outlier at the moment..It does look decent for whoever gets hit though..

Parade of disturbances..

European has a similar scenario with a brief period of LES Sunday before another clipper Sunday night which sends the band north before sinking back south as the system moves east..

The first part of the event is semi short lived due to another northern stream disturbance..With that being said Globals tend to underestimate precipitation amounts from lake effect..Or it can just be weak in nature lol We'll have to wait for SR guidance to get a better view..

Hi rez Canadian keeps the band around most of the day tomorrow with slight variations, starting to back north at the end of the run..

Looks like the secondary forming has some traction..Where is the question lol

It would be nice to have this develop a little farther west as the lighter precipitation rates make this rain instead of snow..

Yeah but it also has rain east of L Ontario, at least a little..The biggest reason is just not a favorable wind direction..You want storms off the coast not in the great lakes.. Track will have the final say..

It was the full run of the Canadian lol which has several events over the next 10 days..We were still adding on at the end of the run fwiw, which is obviously subject to change..

It was running on ncep but those maps hurt my eyes lol