Chicago WX

Just realized its been snowing for a little over 24 hours now. Shame 75% of it was sand, but winter vibes are nonetheless high. One of the LES bands making into Kankakee county now.

RAP also picked up on this regeneration/enhancement better than the HRRR. Its done a much better job overall with this system, between the 2 short range models.

It certainly wasn't the GFS

Yeah, surge is here. Big flakes. Really, best snow rates of the entire event. Took me by surprise.

Measured 3.2" a little while ago. Best rates have been this morning. Overall, ratios have been blah, but I think we kinda knew you had to get into good bands to get the fluff. LOT's call of 3-5" was money. Over 30" for the season now IMBY. Looks like winter again. I'm pleased.

Definitely has here as better returns have moved into IKK. It's not parachutes, but actual snowflakes versus sand.

I-N-I !!! Sand accumulating as best as it can do here.

Bingo. If we’re compared short range models, 18z RAP looks to be handling things better.

Light snow has started here.

I think LOT’s call for 3-5” is good. Not sure there’s any room to go beyond unless we get under some banding and ratios really go nuts. I just want some snow to cover the landscape if we’re doing this big cold thing thru next week.

LOT goes WWA for a bigger chunk of the CWA than I expected. IKK zone text has 3-5" total. I guess its part good ratios and then banking on LES closer to the lake. NW ticks been the theme of the models since 18z yesterday. Even the 6z GFS/GEFS came in a bit farther northwest. I mean not wholesale changes, but decent increases on the northern fringes. I guess we'll see.

Versus its "not happening 18z run", sure. But its farther north compared to the 12z run, especially in S/C IL, N KY, S/C IN, into OH and SE MI. Spot in KY went from 18" on the 12z run to 5" on the 0z run.

0z HRRR will a sizable jump north/northwest compared to its 18z run. Though, it seemed to be maybe too far south with its 18z solution. And of course, spots of 10" or a bit more for the lakefront with LES. Take it to the bank clock?

I was holding out hope that the euro was going to be right, but every run erodes more and more of the northern edge. GFS took it to the woodshed on that aspect. Final call for myby is mood flakes through dim sun. Great start to this winter, but it went kapoot after that. Can’t end soon enough. Regardless, good luck to those to the east and south. Hope it over performs.

DT was the best. Going way back to the WWBB days. His call though, that is way far north. Especially in the OV thru NE. I know he loves the Euro, but I'm not sure its that zonked.

Nah, you've always been optimistic. Never change. Need people like you to counter balance the wrist-slitters.

Its better than the 12z run. But, no idea if the Ukie has been worth a sh*t. Let alone an 18z run.

RGEM and NAM starting to bring GHD I northwest, right about this time, if I recall correctly... Just kidding obviously. But, why the angst over the GFS? Seems the Euro (and EPS) has kinda latched onto its idea of the system evolution. I'd ride its solution over anything else right now.

This piece of crap is supposed to replace the NAM at some point, I believe. But hey, dare to dream.

0.20-0.30" of QPF on the ensembles. Think my call right now would be 24 hours of arctic sand for a grand total of 2-4". 6z NAM with a classic jump way north. Sell as usual. I noticed on the 0z Euro, the 850 low gets pretty far north. Ends up flipping places like DC to pingers and zr after an initial thump of snow. SGF to BMG to CMH looking pretty locked in for 10"+.

At this point, yeah. 6z Euro bumped north again.

Kinda gives me Jan 1999 vibes. Big moisture laden system running into an arctic airmass. Snow field with that one was very expansive. Yeah, I'm not calling for a repeat at all, just saying the "similarities" as currently modeled. And probably a good sign that Alek has gone from congrats Greensboro to congrats NYC.

Extended looks good to me. To varying degrees, op runs have shown an overrunning type set up somewhere in the region. Obviously the biblical 18z GFS isn't happening, but the EPS and GEFS have been flagging that period (around Jan 23-?) for something to move through. One piece, two pieces...who knows at this point. I mean its our best shot at something other than northern stream dusters. First shot all winter really. And it certainly looks cold in the medium/extended range as well. Seems like it may be a bookend winter. Fast start, then zzzzz, and top it off with a good finish.

Could you imagine getting 28" and feeling screwed because 30 miles away got 4 feet? That one's a keeper though for parts of IL, IN, and OH. Can't recall a model run spit out something like that with one system.

But to the original topic of the thread, it’d be January 1979 for me. I was only 3, so needless to say, no recollection of that one. It was of course the cherry on top of an incredible season in NE IL that winter. Second place would be Jan 1978, even if the snowfall amounts/impacts were lesser around here. I’d just love to see the evolution of that storm on present modeling.