Amped
-
Posts
14,199 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Amped
-
Looks like the CC line is accurate over the mountains.
-
18z NAM came south with the low track, but the mixing line is further north and the Deathband almost runs across the PA/NY state line.. Believable considering there's a lot more precip near Pittsburgh then most models had.
-
Huge flakes in Columbia. Tooo bad we probably only have another 20-30 minutes left.
-
Euro has 8" in Albany, rgem has 30". They also have fun forecasts on the north side of this storm.
-
-
At least we still have the RGEM 850mb wraparound mesobomb to track.
-
Western shift is due to the following 3 things 1. The troff keeps trending, slower with higher heights ahead of it. 2. #1 is really bad when there is a high moving offshore. 3. The primary in the OV keeps trending stronger.
-
Last second trends always make an accurate forecast practically impossible. Now it's up to mets to gamble and extrapolate the models even further NW cause the models are playing catch up and won't quite make it.
-
Just go all the way to Hagerstown at that point. Pretty easy drive up 70, and easy to pick up 68 if you need to get even further west.
-
In 2017 GFS' had the snow sleet line 50 miles too far SE and it underdid the warm layer by about 4C
-
RGM death band now includes Garret County, State Collage Binghamton and Albany It gets the sleet line into NNJ. Why do we track these things again?
-
Low is just across the bay from Baltimore at 54.
-
If CMC is correct this has all the makings of a bust From DC to PHI and Burbs. NYC will get a good thump but even there they will have sleet and a dryslot and struggle to make the low end of whatever ridiculously high range the NWS gives.. This looks exactly like most Non-megalopolis storms. Death band State College to Scranton to Albany to Concord.
-
Pretty much in line with my thinking.
-
Pretty decent thump event.
-
Sleet makes it into Frederick at the height of the storm.
-
UKMET is a disaster everywhere southeast of Frederick to Manchester once you factor in sleet.
-
That's why we let dogs pee and poop in it.
-
Also WTF is wrong with the GFS? Numerous upgrades over the years, with little or no improvement in forecasting skill in the months after the upgrade. NAM is still the laughing stock, but GFS is providing plenty of extra comic relief this storm.
-
GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area.
-
Good run for the Shenandoah, heavy snow extends further down than 12z. Not as good for the rest of us. A lot of that is sleet on the SE edge. .
-
A lot of sleet this run
-
Going to be a fun 6 hrs
-
Not surprisingly.
-
Also doing a pretty big norlun just north of the MD line. Keeps Precip going in philly long after the low exits.
