Snowstorms

Literally nothing on the models after this weekends storm. Maybe some light snow around Jan 23, but even that has some mixing lol.

I was shocked to see that this morning. Vegas is only 3pts away from being division lead. I don't understand this, but I'm starting to think it may have been intentional. Only reason I say that is because DeBoer was hired immediately.

2011-12, 2012-13 and 2015-16 were worse up until now.

Well right now it's somewhere in the Atlantic. Happened a few days ago. 75% of the sub-forum was a washout. Don't worry you didn't miss anything.

It's -57F in Mayo, Yukon. If anyone misses the cold that is. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/yt-10_metric_e.html

12z CMC much further south than the 12z GFS. Primarily snow for Chicago crew.

It's crazy how were sad to see a 1" snowpack melt away. The story of this winter.

12Z GFS is a bit too warm for my liking. We need the Low to cut south of Lake Michigan, otherwise there's to much WAA. Just another storm where we're riding the thin line.

Apparently the Euro weeklies look like Feb 2015. Feb 2015 was an incredibly boring month outside of the GHD storm. Just endless brutal cold.

If we got 0.5" every single day from Dec 1 to Feb 28, we'd hit avg.

Just move to Quebec City. They avg. 120" a year of pure synoptic snow. Just brush up on that French though lol.

I mean qpf can always be over or under modeled. We won't know until within 24 hrs. But if you look at the 250mb wind map you'd see some subtropical influence and the PWAT maps indicate a good amount of moisture. It's a decent Colorado Low.

Mar 2012 and Feb 2015 were both rare months. We've had warm winters in the past, especially the 1930s and some 1800s. However, as you mentioned, the warm-ups have become too frequent and long-lasting. If we break it down a bit, it becomes quite clear. 05-06: quite warm after Dec, 06-07: a no show until mid Jan, 07-08: overall was warm, 11-12: warm, 12-13: warm until late Jan, 15-16: warm, 16-17: warm after Dec, 18-19: warm until mid Jan, 19-20: warm since Dec..? Hard to say if it's related to CC, but the trend is undeniable. We've shattered snowfall and cold records in between, but warmth still prevails.

The HP placement is different than the last storm. We had to much WAA thanks to the strong SE ridge. It's a bit more suppressed with this event.

On a positive note, the models have been trending colder since yesterday. A lot of that has to do with the strong HP in Quebec. This storm won't make it onshore until Thursday morning so I'd expect some fluctuations till then.

Similar trend up this way in Toronto since 2000. Hoping we turn it around this decade. February has been our strongest month in recent times, hoping that trend continues atleast lol.

The pattern following this storm is pretty mundane. Latest GFS has a split flow look. Not the most ideal pattern for any storm for our region other than perhaps weak clippers.

I know we've all broken some nice cold and snowfall records in the last decade or two. But my post was referring to the prolonged and frequent warmups we've been seeing practically every winter. 7 out of the last 10 Decembers were warmer than normal. Both February 2017 and 2018 featured record breaking warmth. 2010-11 and 2013-14 were the only two winters in the last decade to feature consistent cold through DJF. Perhaps it could just be a temporary thing or is a result of CC. Either way its hard to deny the facts. The 90's were indifferent too.

I feel like it's been a common theme since 2010, maybe even before that. We have prolonged mild spells through the heart of winter and only a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Let's be honest, since 2010, we've only had 3 maybe 4 appreciable winters. And besides 2010-11 and 2013-14, the other 1-2 good winters featured a decent warm spell. Perhaps this is a result of climate change or maybe it's just a temporary blip. Regardless, we won't know until we see how the next couple of winters perform.

Might be one of the worst winters for lake effect and synoptic snow.

First thread, I hope it's blessing. This thread is for a different storm than the 14th-15th event. Models show something for both timeframes.

Euro with another rainer followed by a pattern change that favours the East Coast. Can't get much worse than that. Practically mid Jan now. March is less than 2 months away.

The GFS is trying to build a split flow pattern ~Jan 20th. Terrible. This current pattern were in is probably the most ideal pattern for most of us to get snow, but due to a strong SE ridge, we keep getting rain.

Visibility was down to 0.5 miles around 3 am at YYZ with an intense squall moving through. Got less than an inch in my neck of the woods with an inch near YYZ.

The EURO has a three punch storm. The third is further south than the GFS and CMC. Edit: That strong HP near Hudson Bay plays a major role IMO on how far north the storm comes and where the gradient sets up with a cold NE wind.