SBUWX23
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Everything posted by SBUWX23
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Still would like to see a bump north too -
Do you like snow? Seems like you are rooting for the drier models.
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You can see where there may be problems in CT, and any shift south that could reach LI too. It's a fine line. Never a fan of inverted troughs
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18z HRRR out through 48 hours looks decent, and yes I am aware of its unreliability beyond 18 hours.
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youll prob end up better there anyway as its colder up there.
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Yep, it was too dry with the last event too. I do believe the NAM was more on target and actually had the right idea overall as the even drew closer. I know there were some concerns that models were overdone qpf wife, but we had a good bit of rain out here and the NAM really handled the fact there was gonna be ZR well. Hopefully we can narrow down things on Thursday.
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doesnt mean its right. its not the gospel model when it comes to smaller details like what we are looking for with this event.
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The 12z NAM has about 0.3 liquid around the city. The nam is a bit noisy with the QPF owing likely to the localized banding potential with the inverted trough.
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thats nyc all the time
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sun angle is also higher.
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at least its not 55 degrees, flooding rains, and wind.
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Expect a light snowfall and enjoy whatever we get. at least it wont wash away with rain Friday night.
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that is some top notch analysis. It improved at 500 mb since 00z. There is a ceiling with this, but the 500 mb improvement could yield a bit more snow down the road.
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I feel like the NAM may be "slightly" better. Maybe.
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What is? Share the mean
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Understand the concern but at 500 MB it makes sense why it's trying to redevelop the surface low where it is.
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This is crap? It's not a ku but this isn't necessarily crap
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Jeez sorry I didn't know I wasn't letting people vent man.
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I will say though models almost never trend west or north. Wherever the gradient is now should verify. Models almost never miss these situations.
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At the same time it can also tighten the forcing gradient and where it is snowing under light returns its full of fluff.
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You live near an ocean that has a warm stream running near and off the coast. You have been spoiled over the last 10-15 years with big storms and KUs. They don't always work that way. Both of these systems are not classics by any stretch and of course they'll have some challenges.
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All will depend on the strength of the subsidence to the north and the confluent flow.
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No significant change on the GFS. Been pretty consistent the last several cycles on a light but fluffy event for portions of the region mainly south of New England.
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18z ICON also sorta backed off from it's 12z run.
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