Hvward

12z UKMET jumping on board with the strip of precip over WNC.

In these type of fast flows I tend to favor gridded models(NAM & GFS) over spectral(Euro) simply because they are better suited to handle the multiple back to back pieces of energy. A spectral model like the Euro divides the atmosphere up into 28 waves across the globe. Having two waves back to back like we are seeing is certainly giving the Euro trouble. It struggled with the last event where there was trailing overrunning precip. It has shown to me a tendency to struggle in these fast flows. The nam with those smaller grid points is better suited to resolve those little details, especially when several vorts are heading our way. We will see at 12z, I am pretty excited to watch model progression today to be honest.

Wow did we just lose Ryan Newman? Man that was an awful wreck..

18z NAM has precip again oriented in a great fashion for accumulating snow in WNC.

For the mountains these overrunning events have worked out before. Below 1500’ might struggle with temps though imo.

ICON with a more expansive northern shield of precip on the 12z run. Temps are borderline but I can roll with that look.

Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent.

12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system.

Like nrgeff said, thermals look good for mountain locations, below 1500’ could struggle. We just need the moisture.

6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

A bit less of a positive tilt to the trough in 2017, also a much less expansive high. Models showed much less moisture leading up to the event but the GFS and Euro caught on within 36 hours. NAM had the storm pretty well but wavered with it some. Not exactly sure what to think with the less positive tilt to this look, but still thinking the precip shield expands north with more qpf. Reading back through the Mountain thread of 2017 and at one point in time we had the JMA, NAVGEM, & ICON? I think vs. the GFS, Euro, UKMET. Was a wild event to forecast.

Remember that time the NAVGEM nailed a winter storm from 4 days out that others weren’t really showing? Yep that was the overrunning event of Dec 10th, 2017.

Really liking the setup for Thursday, we have done ok in these type of overrunning events here in WNC. Think back to early Dec of 2017. Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent.

0z EPS with a pretty decent signal for the 21st. Members average 3” of snowfall.

Euro showing a 1040 high dropping down in the LR. Thats something we haven’t seen all winter.

Waynesville seeing someone nice rates ATM. https://www.ashevillewx.com/affairs-of-the-heart-downtown-waynesville-nc-live-camera

Maggie getting a nice dose of NWF moisture. Like Met said moisture looks good upstream, flurries should move back into Downtown Asheville soon. https://www.ashevillewx.com/cabbage-rose-maggie-valley-live-camera

3km is amped again for the NWF tomorrow. Almost like a comma head develops on the backside as the low bombs out on the Delmarva. Then that secondary shortwave looks to be juicy. .

ULL is going to amp up this NWF. Models are showing it catching the surface low quicker and quicker.

Beaverdam Creek is a river running down the fairways at Asheville Country Club currently.

That is a beast of a NWF setup on the 3km NAM for Friday. Low bombing out on the Delmarv and plenty of moisture on the backside to be strained out. Wicked winds should push snowflakes into many of the valleys if this comes to fruition.

12z EPS even more bullish with the trailing wave. This one could have some legitimacy. Let’s hope, just got my hot tub installed today!

Snowing In Brevard currently. https://www.ashevillewx.com/tj-hooper-nationwide-brevard-live-camera

0z NAM still seeing snow showers around WNC tomorrow. It hasn’t backed down.