Hvward

Had a dusting of snow here in Alexander. Also, I bought a house this summer in Alexander so that’s where my OBS will be from.

Yeah, main threat this week will be for a little frozen precip late Thursday into Friday. I still don’t think the LR pattern isn’t too bad, especially if we can get the southern stream going.

Relatively big changes at 500mb on the 12z Euro. Much slower with the shortwave and leaves it behind similar to the GFS from the main trough. Precipitation blossoms in the Gulf and moves ashore. Where the CAD sets up?? GFS has historically been better with that compared to other models imho.

I am interested in the possibility for a wintry mix around WNC on Wednesday Night/Thursday morning. It all depends on timing with the first wave that moves in from the southern stream. 6z GFS is much more progressive with the wave, allowing the moisture to move in quickly while a +1040mb high retreats to the NE. Euro's temp profile is very similar to the GFS but it is much slower with the initial wave. A weak low like the GFS shows would have a small warm nose and with it running into such a strong high, the CAD could be substantial. The next two days of model runs it will be crucial to focus on timing. The ridging in the Atlantic is something you really like to see though and all long range models are showing it. Should be a fun month of tracking systems.

KMRX Radar lighting up with NWF moisture. This ones been disappointing.. hoping for one last gasp with this backside flow that appears to be of true NW orientation.

Nam 3km very bullish on the flow. It will be interesting to see potential snowfall totals in the next 2-3 runs. free image hosting

Wouldn’t surprise me one bit. The dynamics will certainly be there. The lift is going be pretty intense with the 500mb low moving over top.

For me this is based off of memory, as I am not sure that there is a database that distinguishes between which events were NWF and which events weren’t. So my comment is based off of memory.. take it with a grain of salt lol. What this system does kind of remind me of a bit is the October 31st, 2014 storm. That ULL came barreling over the mountains, similar to how the models show occurring on late Sunday night or Monday am. Even Asheville got 3” of snow from that. This will be a really interesting event imo. As far as dynamics, which is where I start focusing on this far out. A stout lobe of the vort is going to stretch across the Tennessee Valley and as that vort screams into the Apps, the lift will be incredible. With the Great Lakes warm, it’s a recipe for a really stout event. Maybe I should tone down my excitement, but seeing so many NWF signatures on every model really has me optimistic.

The cutoff upper level low is really going to enhance this NWF that’s coming Sunday night. Usually the models don’t really hint at northwest flow until 3 or so days out, but every single model has been showing it for a couple of days now. Even the Euro is showing it and it is not a go to model for NWF. In fact the EPS shows .2” of snow at the Asheville Airport on Avg this past run. The 500mb ULL is going to make this NWF beefier than usual, and could put it in the top 5 NWF events of the past 10 years around WNC.

Agree with others, NWFS going to be a problem it looks like on Sunday night. Higher elevations could get raked.

Like Met said, NWF will get up soon guys and I think that’s when the real fun begins.

In regards to the upcoming front, I think the best chance for flakes will be northwest flow moisture Tuesday into Wednesday. Anafronts never work out for the valleys of WNC, but the backside moisture looks promising and a 1040mb high over the great lakes will certainly send the winds. The valleys in WNC would certainly see flakes from the backside if that comes to fruition. Then, late next week we could be talking about a possible Gulf Low, developing on the tail end of the wave. Will the cold air be in place? Probably not, but a retreating high to our north could make for an icy situation. Anyways, the next 10 days should be interesting.

Modoki El Nino isn't going to come to fruition, but I still believe the forcing will come from a very favorable spot this winter. With the neutral phase expected now and Modoki only just above neutral, the data is still somewhat applicable.

The signal is there next week for two rounds of snowfall. Per the EPS, an elongated trough will rake over the mountain of WNC Tuesday into Wednesday bringing some form of Clipper action. Then the stream could potential phase with the southern jet, later in the week. All this means is that there is way to much uncertainty regarding the pattern next week. Models will have a better handle by this weekend, but I believe fun times are in store for at least some over the next 10-15 days.

Lots of dynamic involved Saturday. Omega values should allow snow to reach the ground in many locations.

SREF avg up over 1” for KAVL. I think we will at least see a snow shower around WNC tomorrow am. System already looks stout on radar with ip being reported in ETX.

Yeah precip shield just needs to blossom a bit more, but 500mb low dips under the Apps and goes slightly negative tilt. Any more and it would pull the whole precip shield into WNC. Lots of interesting dynamics with this one, I think it’s going to be a nowcast(cliché).

Euro moves towards the gfs solution.. only token flakes for WNC at the onset. Will be interesting to see the EPS. .

12z EPS average snowfall totals increase for WNC. KAVL Up from around 1" to just under 4". Boone avg also up to just under 4" and Franklin 12z EPS shows around 3" on average. 15 members(30%) at KAVL show 6"+.

12z Euro just dropped a foot for most in WNC. Not sure how legit it is, haven’t had a chance to analyze the thermals yet.. but this certainly has my attention. .

GFS, ICON, & Euro all seeing a strong upper level low moving through the Southeast and bringing the chance for accumulating snow to WNC. I think that this threat has legs. Think back to April 10th, 2003. These upper level lows can do wild things. I am ready for spring, but one last snow wouldn’t hurt my feelings whatsoever.

Snowflakes mixing in with rain currently in East Asheville.

12z 3km NAM .

Timing looks to be a littler later now, but still a lot of details to be hammered out. Think the higher elevations get raked though, especially if that low begins to bomb out 6-12 hours sooner.

Late Wednesday night into Thursday looks interesting with the ULL moving through.