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Hvward

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Hvward

  1. Hvward
    12z EPS has some big dogs. Looks to me like a decent window for some sort of phasing to occur. Still a ton of details to be hammered out, but this is not a bad look 7-9 days out.
  2. Hvward
    EPS snow signal getting strong each run for KAVL. That’s a measure I like to watch this far out from the possibility of wintery weather.
  3. Hvward
    Yeah was coming here to post about that. Pattern change looks almost certain now around the beginning of Dec with both the GFS & Euro showing the potential for some energy to move through the South. Glad to finally have something to track..
  4. Hvward
    Some very strong winds showing up on most models Thursday afternoon around WNC. Euro latched on to this solution yesterday and it appears that all other have fallen suite. Looks like the core of Zeta moves right through WNC. Anyways, batten down the hatches!
  5. Hvward
    Got a few shots from Roan this morning. https://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2020/5/8/may-snow-coats-nc-high-country-photo-gallery
  6. Hvward
    Buckethead and I have been trying to get a webcam up at the Country Club in Wolf Laurel. I have the whole setup, just need a commitment. Would be a moving 4-5 view 1080HD camera that operates year round. Going to send some follow up emails about that, seemed that it had really good potential at one point in time.
  7. Hvward
    I slipped on ice on my deck this morning. I am currently over May. Frosted at my house this morning... 2200’ and a mile from the French Broad. My thermometer said 31.
  8. Hvward
    Well so the long range GFS even brings May snow showers to the valleys next Saturday night. Seriously WTF, I want to plant my tomatoes...
  9. Hvward
    Just saw this thread, but GFS shows a stout ULL to begin April like others have stated. Love how we get these setups at the end of winter instead of January...
  10. Hvward
    NAO & AO finally going negative of course. Looks like a long period of cold is going to keep me from starting all the veggies that aren't frost tolerant in my garden. I am hoping we don't get a deep freeze because my strawberries, grapes, blueberries, raspberries, mulberries, and blackberries are all beginning to leaf out. A deep frost now would be devastating to many local farmers.
  11. Hvward
    Looks like a mega high pressure will build in late this weekend and provide a strong CAD setup for Sunday into Monday. Could have some mixing around WNC. Both Euro and GFS show the potential. CMC shows a coastal developing with this one, so this has my interest. Will be interested to see where it goes.
  12. Hvward
    Starting to see some snow flurries here in North Asheville.
  13. Hvward
    18z NAM suite is warm, and most of the precip stays to the South with the initial thump. Backside still looks decent though above 3500'.
  14. Hvward
    6z NAM is a tad bit warmer and that makes all of the difference. Let’s see what the 12z runs day, but it’s about time to start leaning on the 3km.
  15. Hvward
    Anybody watching the NAM? Another 3”-4” event for Asheville Thursday afternoon and into the night. Not really sure what to think. Absolutely nothing else shows this. Looking at the soundings the column around Asheville goes frozen right as the heavy precip moves in. Weak LP keeps that warm nose down. Cold air source is very meager. That’s the problem here, but NAM says it’s enough.
  16. Hvward
    Sorry to hear about your mom buddy. Hope her recovery is quick and painless!
  17. Hvward
    Yeah Euro isn’t the King anymore. If the NAM nails this one I will start calling it the king. 12km 18z NAM run just gave KAVL 3.5” on the kuchera maps... has a perfect snow sounding around 11am Thursday.
  18. Hvward
    12z Euro is basically a complete whiff for everyone.
  19. Hvward
    Could be. Not sure how that trailing precipitation is going to act. All depends on the phase and when it occurs. GFS has it moving in around 8am so I guess we shall see.
  20. Hvward
    Here is the sounding from around KAVL early Thursday AM as showers move in per the 12z 12km NAM. 3k NAM is around 2 degrees warmer. Very limited warm nose here which is certainly something to watch.
  21. Hvward
    I am still intrigued with Thursday. Most recent 12km NAM & 3km is limiting that warm nose at 700mb and could allow some sloppy flakes to fall during heavy precipitation bursts. Then the 12km has a bit of deformation action on the backside Thursday night. Still several details need to be resolved and 1-2 degrees here is going to make a huge difference for valley locations. Continuing to watch soundings. Elevations above 3500' should see 2"-4".
  22. Hvward
    Give me 3 more hybrid clippers and I’ll be satisfied. Lol
  23. Hvward
    At Hr 84 the column is nearly frozen. Wet bulb would probably slow for moisture to fall is snow. Several EPS members also have the chance for a dusting or so either from a front end thump, or a backside push of moisture. Several possibilities here.
  24. Hvward
    Lots of details still to be figured out with this Thursday into Friday system. NAM has a phased solution that hammers the High Country. Would love to see that high pressure trend to 1030mb.
  25. Hvward
    12z GFS has snow showers Thursday am for SW WNC as that front moves along the Gulf Coast. If we could get this high pressure to build in a bit more we could have another small event for the area.
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