Hvward

Thanks going to post a bit about this.

I have seen a 1036-1038 high get the job done here. A 1044 high makes me think the models aren't valuing it as much as they should.

It was give TN 4"-5" of snow 18 hours from this past weekends event. So was the Nam 3km.

Looks to me like a large difference between the two models is the tongue of moisture out ahead of the front that the GFS develops. It’s not really fighting the warm nose. Euro does not have that precip beginning Saturday AM. Still looks like a big mess right now, hopefully the low will trend a bit weaker and we can stay snow for a bit. I do believe most will start as snow, just a matter of how quickly precip arrives and how strong the low gets.

18z Euro cuts snow totals to basically zero and has all sleet for all of WNC through Sunday then shows a change to rain. Wow, we all know its possible though.

Probably the best GFS run I have ever seen for WNC. That was impressive and it starts precipitation late Friday night. 48 hour event.

Too hard to tell right now. It's all going to happen at the 700mb level. Warm nose comes in way up high and produces full melt, then it falls through 5000ft of frozen, hits the surface at 21 degrees as sleet because after full melt we have full freeze again. I am banking on sleet over freezing rain. Sounding screams full melt then full freeze again. General rule of thumb from what I learned was that you need around 1500' of above freezing temps for the parcel to fall through to produce full melt and the same is true with refreezing of precipitation.

6z Euro with another huge hit. This is starting to get a little worrisome honestly. We really don't need 12"+ of snow and ice on top of that, then temps close to zero. People need to get prepared, lots of power outages are going to occur.

6z Euro now showing a little appetizer on Friday AM. I would consider this a baroclinic leaf out of front of the main storm. Something to watch.

Its been since the 2017 and 2018 Dec storms that I can remember seeing models so robust for us.

6z GFS is scary for WNC. Power grid problems for sure if that comes to fruition. Almost a foot of snow before the low transfers and then a deformation feature behind it. Might have to start getting pretty serious on this one.

18z EPS has nearly the same totals as the 12z. Widespread 6"+.

Crush job for most all of WNC on 18z Euro. Some mixing issues as you head SW, but showing mid teens at the surface. This is one powerful storm.

Big one coming in with the Euro. Showing an epic omega block.

18z Euro was a lot of ice through the end of the run but had the potential to switch over if it kept on going. Still has a massive storm.

Well we haven’t had an EPS run that looked this good in a while. I’ll roll the dice with this setup. Some big dogs in there as well. You can see there are some differing opinions on whether this will be 1 wave or 2.

12z Euro making dreams come true out here. Impressive run.

Thanks for the kind words. On cue the 12z GFS shows what a real overunning event should look like here in WNC for next weekend.

Disappointing how this unfolded for all of us, that's for sure. Looking at the pattern ahead its easy to feel optimistic. We have found every way possible to miss in the past 4 years though, so it's hard to get too excited. Anyways glad I can post my thoughts here without a bunch of crazy. This is a good group of people!

Decent blob on the radar moving up from North GA. Snow reports showing down there so I bet many seem flakes from this.

Getting a nice little burst of snow at my house currently.

Not impressed with the 18z Nam 3km. Seems to keep firing precipitation through the early morning hours but it is just scattered. Still think we see a widespread 1"-3" from this but who knows. This is why the weather is so fun!

Yeah looks like our moisture is coming out of Louisiana so I would watch the radars down south through the day to see how much moisture develops. If ATL starts seeing snow around 8-10pm it's going to be game on big time.

12Z HRRR has a nice strip of moisture developing over WNC tonight around 9-10pm. This seems to have some legs here. Perfect timing for snow to accumulate.

I think we are very much back in the ball game. Going to have to play a little catch up with my forecast but NAM 3km now showing a dusting for all and 1-3” for Haywood, Henderson, & Transylvania. These overrunning events are always poorly modeled, especially for WNC.