Hvward
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Everything posted by Hvward
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Euro now showing a widespread 6”+ event for most all of us on the 18z. Widespread 4”-8” event now on the table?? That will send WNC back into a frenzy. Winds will be an issue with a pressure gradient like what is being shown. I saw a post today about this not being a big deal that might be regretful.
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Most models are showing some form of snow showers Friday night and into Saturday for most of us here in WNC. Early phase looks better for a boom, but looks like a 1"-3" or 2"-4" event is on the table for most every model. That's more snow than I have seen in a while, I'll take it!
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I have a nice dusting now at my house. Amazing how a few degrees of change in direction in the atmosphere can just flood one valley or another with NWF.
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Full sun here below the Parkway. I don't do well here with Northwest flow. The high peaks absolutely rob this location.
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Looks like Northwest flow is cranking up pretty good I see it snowing on the ring cam at my Tiny House in Alexander. Looking at the 6z Euro storm is still there and it likes the idea of an earlier phase. That's the solution that works best for us for this weekend. Good Ensemble support for some type of snowfall accumulation on both 0zEPS & 0zGFS as well. Could have some legs.
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So um, anyone sick enough to look at the 18z Euro? 5 days out, that could trend for us.
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Northwest flow moisture heading this way on the Morristown radar. Looking pretty juicy over Nashville and that will head our way.
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Appreciate you man. .
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Up to almost 40 degrees now at my house.
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Just stepped onto my driveway and slid 5 feet haha. Lots of people calling a storm that already has 15k+ without power a bust. We could see 25k+ without power after these winds bust through.
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Awesome inversion from my back porch here in Black Mountain. I have around .25” of ice and it looks like the top of the neighborhood may be ice free. Wild storm and still more to come.
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I am at 22 with light freezing rain falling.
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Nothing at my house yet really and I consider that lucky. I hope I just get NWFS haha. We sit at 27 so our luck will end soon.
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little tiny flakes here.
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HRRR now gives Chattanooga .7” of snow when it has shown nothing. A little front end surprise looks to be in store.
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NAM 3km coming in much further south with that initial thump rain/snow line. This could drop a nice 1"-3" widespread before the switchover.
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Agree whole heartedly with this. That last GFS gave Johnson City 3 more inches with the backside. It will for sure be under modeled.
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I am ready. Got the generator, 3 loads of firewood, 2 weeks of food, Starlink, full propane tank. Ready to thrive and report.
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Going to be in an interesting spot at my house at 2900’ in Black Mountain. I have no idea how we do in these type events since I havent experienced one here. Hoping we can hang on to the snow and get a couple of inches before the sleet. Worried about the freezing rain as well here.
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I will be watching Northern Mississippi tonight to see if there are snow reports and what is falling. That will be where the tongue of precipitation comes from that could bring the early thump of snow. HRRR had a nice south jump the past few runs there.
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18z GFS drops the snow line around 50 miles or so. Puts the NW mountains back in the snow game.
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Yep came to post the same thing Met. With the Great Lakes connection and the very cold temps this is a good setup for NWFS. Kind of seeing a deformation feature developing on the backside, that could help as well. Nonetheless this is looking to be a solid 48 hour event that will have major impacts. I am hoping that the rain comes in Sunday afternoon and melts some ice that develops. That could be a big saving grace especially for the SW mountains. Tough forecast here for sure.
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Nam3km has a smaller warm nose at hr 60 compared the NAM. I think we are going to have to rely on short range models to see if we get a few hours on Saturday of snow before the warm nose interferes.
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No rest for the weary here. Hopefully everyone has power to track this next wave in the 10 day. All 3 major models show another shot. Of course take it with a grain of salt, but winter certainly doesn’t look over after the ice passes.
