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Hvward

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Hvward

  1. Hvward
    Thank you for the kind words ncjoaquin!
  2. Hvward
    HRRR has heavy snow breaking in Haywood tonight around 7pm.
  3. Hvward
    Thanks to you both for the kind words!
  4. Hvward
    18z GFS with a bit better look than what we have seen all day. Lots of variables at play here with this one and a lot to consider. It's going to be nowcast soon. Soundings for the whole event are razor thin.
  5. Hvward
    Wow GFS really falling off.. crazy forecast.
  6. Hvward
    For some reason I just don't think these models are grasping the full extent of the ULL. I guess we will see over the next 36 hours. Deformation feature is going to be key for accumulation and that is notoriously difficult to model.
  7. Hvward
    Lol this is pretty typical, they will play major catch up soon.
  8. Hvward
    I would still roll with this look and take our chances. Buzz word is going to start being Dynamic Cooling.
  9. Hvward
    RDPS keeps getting warmer.. that's somewhat concerning.
  10. Hvward
    Looking at soundings and margins are razor thin in the upper atmosphere. 1 degree difference at the surface and that would have all been snow. We will see, this track is far from nailed down.
  11. Hvward
    6z brings back better snowfall totals to WNC but is still on the low end of guidance. Looking at sounds and temps are extremely borderline. I think we continue to see wobbles with the surface low and that’s going to play key with the warm nose presenting itself. Asheville area looks good for at least a couple of inches. Foothills area still very questionable. Not sure that EKY becomes the winner here though.
  12. Hvward
    It looks a little moisture starved to me and it still shows 4” of accumulation around Asheville by 1am Sunday morning. This thing has big time boom potential here in WNC.
  13. Hvward
    No problem man! Glad to be apart of it. I was just a lurker here in 2010. I give a lot of credit to this board.
  14. Hvward
    Wow this is the best 50 member look I have seen in a while on the 12z EPS.
  15. Hvward
    12z EPS increasing totals again. This is really trending our way.
  16. Hvward
    Don't want to be in the bullseye just yet. I think we have this one right where we want it to get a decent storm here in WNC. Now we focus on when negative tilt occurs and how much moisture the system can pull from the Gulf.
  17. Hvward
    0z GFS is the best run yet for WNC. Really like the trends here.
  18. Hvward
    Euro ensemble certainly trending towards a better snowfall event at 12z.
  19. Hvward
    Woah at the 6z GFS. Hopefully the ULL catching the surface low becomes a trend today.
  20. Hvward
    Man we need this one bad people are getting stark crazy over snow lol.
  21. Hvward
    NAM is all over the place. Maybe just some token flakes Thursday night/Friday AM. We will see but NAM doesn't have the stream of moisture as far north compared to previous runs.
  22. Hvward
    We have the NAM, NAM 3km, RDPS, Canadian, & GFS all showing snow showers to a good portion of WNC late Thursday night and into Friday. This looks like it could actually happen. Might sneak up on us! Sounds look pretty good though from most models, Nam and NAM 3km even showing some accumulation.
  23. Hvward
    Impressive snowfall totals showing up on the 12z NAM 3km. I’ve been saying this for a while but someone is going to get hammered. 3km even picking up on that Buncombe Co streamer. Looking forward to the first decent snow of the season for many!
  24. Hvward
    This one is a long ways from over. The Gfs transferring the Low from the Ohio valley to Coastal NC won’t happen. The more southern solutions seems plausible at this point in time. Enjoy the ride on this one we are going to see big time swings, but someone up here is going to get hammered imo Friday and into Saturday.
  25. Hvward
    Razor thin margin for rain/snow on Tuesday around WNC. We've seen this before. These type setups have been known to produce 1"-2" surprise events for portions of WNC. Short range models should provide a much more clear picture over the next 36 hours.
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