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andyhb

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    MO/KS/AR/OK 2023-2024 Winter Discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    12z Euro is quite simply a monster of a storm for the I-44 corridor next week. The overall pattern with an Arctic air mass dumping into the NW and a very potent jet/baroclinic zone seems supportive of something bigger for this region in that timeframe, although exact timing of shortwave amplification will dictate when and how high the ceiling might be.

    • Like 6

    1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    00z GFS manages to hammer St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, and Montreal. True share the wealth track.

    image.thumb.png.44160f6c0b388a558bc133c730d0b991.png

    That is just an incredibly impressive upper low for that far south. Sure, it could use more cold air, but dynamic cooling will no doubt come into play with such a potent setup aloft.

    • Like 4
    • Weenie 1

    1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    EPS mean is also quite impressive considering the somewhat iffy operational run.

    How wound up the upper low is when it begins progressing poleward will be key in determining the extent of precip and also the warm nose. I’d keep an eye on any shifts towards a more open wave/less occluded cyclone especially early in the storm’s evolution across the Plains and MS Valley.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 5

    Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Ensemble means continue to indicate the potential for a higher end event late this weekend into early next week. Pretty expansive area of significant snowfall on the means, and a solid chunk of the members really bomb the surface low out into the 970s. Would suggest fairly widespread blizzard conditions are possible.

    Looks to be a potential coast to coast storm as well and should certainly help the snowpack out west. I do like how the cold air is there but not overwhelming, which would suggest less potential for the surface low to get suppressed by excess high pressure in its developmental stages.

    image.thumb.png.45fb73936f11ee6a383a5036c6834437.png

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 5

    Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    That storm on the Euro/GFS/ensembles in the second week of January is a monster. A bit of a shame that moisture is cut off by the preceding system about 36-48 hours prior, but the ensembles are pretty locked it for high impact potential across a pretty large expanse of real estate.

    One may be concerned about the degree of suppression if all of the cold becomes involved at once, the STJ dominates, and/or the surface reflection isn’t as strong initially.

    • Like 4
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