andyhb

Jackpots of over 16” in central IA and S WI with this, seems like many areas got over 10” by the end of it.

Looks like the advertised spread the wealth event is coming into fruition. Seems like N IN is doing pretty well compared to expectations, widespread 6-12" elsewhere.

Des Moines looks like it’s getting hammered.

18z EPS mean is 10" for the QC even at 10:1 ratios, pretty impressive considering I'd expect the ratios to be better than that through a good chunk of the storm. This will punch above its weight class SLP depth wise given the favorable dynamics aloft and very strong LLJ/WAA minus a lot of strong convection in the warm sector. Height falls look excellent on the 00z GFS.

HRRR continues to be very impressive, albeit likely overdone. Verbatim would likely mean some pockets of 12-18" over IA and N IL/S WI.

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This is a very good and valid point.

IIRC that wave had a deepening trend closer to verification as well as the PV lobe became better resolved, I remember having some back and forth with @RCNYILWX about it at the time.

The issue this time is that the upstream ridge isn't quite as amplified as that, and there's a bit more phasing required here for a higher end outcome.

500 mb evolution with this does remind me a good deal of a slightly less impressive version of GHD II. Trough/jet streak matures in a very similar way and the thermos aren't terribly far off from that either. More likely to taper out with eastward extent though.

Visibility is effectively zero on that Skydeck webcam now.

How has no one said "rdy 2 b buried" yet?

Incredible and I mean incredible tree/vegetation damage from Melissa across a large area in this video. There's only a few TCs in recent memory that have produced damage on this scale.

The damage in this overhead imagery is pretty mind boggling.

This horrific damage from White House, Jamaica is right up there with the highest end I've seen out of a tropical cyclone. Near 100% structural failure/roof failure here.

Wait, recon made another turn. They seem to be trying to find a flight path around the strong convection on the east side of the CDO.

Annnnnnd recon bailed.

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Well it seems like the envelope is moving east some. The GFS/Icon has just the east part getting hit. We will just have to wait and see. I also said might. 

The GFS has been notably an eastern outlier for the track for days now.

13 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Looks like Jamaica might be spared. 

Based on what?

Cayman Islands may also have a serious problem with this storm, especially if it gets as intense as a pretty significant chunk of guidance suggests it could.

Jamaica is in serious trouble with this one if it is able to drift westward and develop as conditions become more favorable shear-wise. An approach from the south ala the 12z Euro would be a) highly unusual and b) the most dangerous for Kingston especially if it winds up in the RFQ by some stroke of bad luck. Most of the really nasty TCs in Jamaica's history (e.g. Gilbert, Charlie) have approached from the E/ESE.

On 10/6/2025 at 3:15 PM, yoda said:

@andyhb

Have a pretty optimistic view that this will be the catalyst for a reanalysis of tornadoes from recent years for revisions to their ratings.

Locally significant tornado threat possible over NE OK and NW AR tomorrow, in the vicinity of a modifying outflow boundary from tonight's MCS along the OK/KS border.

Could always tell (and appreciate) when it was Burns who was moderating since he treated it all as it should be treated -> as a principal disciplining unruly children.

RIP to a good man.

On 6/27/2025 at 10:10 AM, TradeWinds said:

The new, state of the art WSF-M just achieved IOC in April. While the Space Force paid for it, NOAA is in talks with them. There are also other microwave imagery data still available to civilian agencies. Also, for the record, the decision to spilt the civilian and defense weather satellite programs was made in 2012 under the Obama Administration.

Why are we trying to spin this as a good thing? Seriously.

There is no good reason to end SSMIS regardless of what program it is a part of. The other microwave imagery is significantly degraded compared to SSMIS.

25 minutes ago, FPizz said:

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

So monitoring/predicting rapid intensification is worth nothing? Yeah, no. Intensity forecasting is the more difficult aspect of TC forecasting compared to track.

F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad.

Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.