andyhb

Might add that another thing that could screw this up is if the ULL closes off significantly before the trough ejects. This would cause problems with backing upper level winds and EML advection (shown by the 18z GFS verbatim and some previous Euro runs).

Also worth mentioning that the 18z run appeared to suffer from some possible convective feedback in the 81-84 hr period.

After what you pulled last weekend, read more and post less. It's telling how once you were proven wrong, you ran away for 2 days.

I already handled it, no need to pile on at this point.

It's another solid signal either way. Probably doesn't hurt to be a little cautious given what we just saw... But on the same note that was a heck of an active several days. This one seems a little less impressive just trough wise so far but further north and had some other things in its favor maybe.

I actually disagree a bit here just on initial signal, especially from the 12z GFS/Euro. This looks to spread stronger flow over most of the warm sector and has a stronger low level response earlier than the most recent system.

I'll also add that in the areas that didn't see cold pool stabilization, the GFS and Euro were both underdoing instability values rather significantly on Thursday, Friday and the weekend.

For the record, what do you think is likely to happen this coming Saturday? Honestly, I'd be more interested in your meteorological reasoning than another retort. You could also argue with anyone else who has been (justly) noting the lack of an EML, negative tilts/southerly tracks, etc. Argue with Brett or Jim (wxmann), for instance. A little fairness might be appropriate here.

You're asking for fairness now after your behaviour on Saturday while the event was going on? Sorry to disappoint you, but that's not exactly how things work. Brett and Jim absolutely did not conduct themselves the way you did both before and during this recent event, end of story.

I think Saturday could be a significant day, large upper troughs like that in May will almost always will afford some kind of severe risk. Also, the GFS has been showing a fairly decent looking EML being advected over the Plain states (not extremely strong, but not negligible either). How is a negatively tilted trough bad for severe weather? It may cause problems in the wind profiles in some locations, but it also generally means a stronger surface low, with accordingly stronger low level flow and stronger mid/upper flow overspreading the warm sector. Positively tilted troughs generally cause a lot more problems in the setup in the Plains.

It might well come to nothing if we don't have a good EML. The trend toward a neutral/negative tilt with a "pinched" trough (i.e., one farther south with time) is not encouraging, as that would discourage a good EML from emanating over the warm sector. Anyway, we don't need more HP cells causing havoc for both communities and chasers.

So we're already going to start with this? Fantastic.

Pretty major league setup on the 00z GFS for next Saturday.

12z Euro agrees with the GFS in general, i.e. things are probably going to get very interesting towards the end of next week and beyond.

Thundersnow12 and I hit the road with COD next Friday. 

Optimism should be had (and is, based on his and Victor G's material over the last week or so).

Allow me to describe the 00z GFS mid/long range with the appropriate emoticons:       

Long range 12z GFS and now the latest CFS chiclet SCP chart are going bonkers in the latter half of May. 12z Euro also looked to be setting something up in the late goings.

Current period (4-6th) isn't too interesting, and I suspect the 7-10th will prove to be the same.

 

Saturday obviously has the highest potential of any day between now and Sunday, but I'm leaning heavily towards it being underwhelming due to early/morning initiation.

This has been growing less prominent on the GFS runs today. The Euro might not be bad either in central Texas and the Red River Valley as the convection fires early further west and moves into the destabilizing warm sector and a strengthening low level jet with time.

Hmm, 00z GFS not lending too much confidence in Saturday.

Random question, but does anyone know why the SPC has been consistent in putting "Potential Too Low" over the past few days? Especially today, it's thrown me off a little.

Seems to be forecaster preference over anything.

Been awhile since we've seen a May pattern (I suppose you could argue second half in 2013, but I digress) like that.

And I see some pretty volatile May analogs showing up here (not just single events either, a few of these were prolonged active stretches)...

Yeah Saturday aside from that almost looks like a prototypical bigger May day, might be the best looking synoptic system we've seen so far with a pretty decent chance of kicking at least neutral tilt if not slightly negative with the upper jet ejecting out the base. LLJ strength looks solid on pretty much every day in this upcoming stretch. Not only that, but something tells me (after looking at ensemble guidance) that we aren't done after this either, i.e. what Thundersnow is mentioning.

Not a huge fan of all the signs of early initiation on Saturday on the models, especially further south into Texas (although that is something that could change fairly easily).

00z GFS looking pretty darn solid all things considered for this upcoming weekend (Saturday 5/9 specifically).

Edit: UK/GGEM looking favorable as well.

Not sure I'd go to high end on anything right ahead but keep tossing and eventually something sticks, esp in May. Wed looks better than it has. Ensembles pretty enthusiastic about keeping troughiness going in the W/SW.

I really like the LLJ strength on Wednesday, leading to large low level hodographs with relatively typical Plains profiles. Obviously the less than stellar for the season lapse rates (although GFS/Euro still both have 2000+ J/kg SB/MLCAPE in spots), possible early convection and questionable upper level winds are your three biggest issues (a bit better once you approach the OK/KS border and then further south into western/central OK on the left exit region of stronger 300 mb flow), but at least storm initiation/LCL heights seem reasonable.

I know better than to get too excited, but quietly the trends for next weekend have gotten better. Can't help but like the look of the Euro ensemble mean at 168h. I'm sure it will continue to evolve and we need to get through this mid-week mess first.

It has more western troughing developing after that too (as does the GEFS and GEPS).

5/1991 has been showing up a lot in the CPC analog composites over the past few days. I feel like that month gets overlooked a bit given the magnitude of 4/26, but it had 335+ tornadoes, including 5/16/91, which was nearly as good of a chase day as 4/26 (although there weren't any violent tornadoes during the month). Also had the Lazbuddie, TX tornado carousel on 5/10.

Nino doing its work.

The CFS is changing run to run and even isn't in line with the GFS/Euro.

 

Victor Gensini and myself are heading up trip 2 with CoD and we leave 5/15 and we both think it looks quite good at this stage and are very optimistic. 

I saw his latest ERTAF and he had the week from the 9th to the 16th as above average for activity.

By 48 hours from now, the drought across most of OK and N TX will have been beaten into submission to the point that minor to moderate long-term hydrological impacts are all that remains. Even farther W into the Panhandles, this drenching should probably ensure average-or-better evapotranspiration for awhile. Bring on May, and good riddance to this active but underwhelming April.

Most ensemble guidance indicates some form of western troughing developing towards the end of the first week of May (possibly with periodic shortwave ejections in advance), looks fairly promising at this time.

The active STJ looks to continue unabated into next week. If not for the substantial Great Lakes/Northeast troughing, there'd probably be one or more major severe weather days on the southern Plains next week. It's been way too long since the southern branch has been remotely active like this, with energetic waves translating across N Mexico and the Desert SW. If this can continue into early-mid May (big "if"), this would most likely be the best southern Plains season in several years, particularly out west.

Might want to look at the 12z GFS/Euro for Friday. The Euro is particularly impressive.

But if recent GFS QPF over TX/OK between now and Tuesday verifies, I guess I can wait a bit. #payitforward

April showers bring May...tornadoes?

I don't think it is any time to panic. I've seen a number of mets with a mid-April lull as far as activity goes. There also hasn't been a dominant -EPO showing up on the ensembles to reinforce the E Pacific ridging being forecast (knock on wood). Even if a -EPO does develop, the wave shortening you mentioned will mean that it won't have the same effect that it did back in winter. There have been a number of very active May/June periods in particular where the EPO was predominantly negative.