andyhb

2 hours ago, jpeters3 said:

I think the main question is storm mode.  CAMS seem to be trending toward a classic southeastern US "grunge fest" with widespread nonsupercellular convection in the warm sector, and a QLCS along the front.  This could therefore pan out like 5-20-19 in the plains, with an impressive environment but a lack of tornadic supercells.

Main question in the SE usually is storm mode given lack of more obvious boundaries, but I'm not so sure that 12z CAM suite was as "grungey" as it would appear, especially a couple of the WRFs. The aggregate/average of them as depicted by the 12z HREF would likely be a significant severe event, with both supercells and bowing line segments.

The big question is what does the storm mode look like post-21z when the low-level shear increases significantly. If there are still supercells ongoing by 00z and into the nocturnal period, watch out. The pseudo-cold core regime nearer to the upper low in AR/MO is also worth watching should it be able to destabilize sufficiently.

*Sees the discussion in this thread*

*Rethinks life choices to visit it*

Wednesday has the potential to be a widespread severe weather outbreak across the Lower MS Valley/Mid South/ TN Valley/even Lower OH Valley. An expansive EML and high BL moisture content yielding a wide region of destabilization, large area of favorable shear, and moderate forcing for ascent could yield multiple corridors of enhanced potential. Still some uncertainty surrounding the low level wind fields and northward extent, but the signals are rather troubling.

MJO related interference with the background state.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Well, if it is based on "extensive social science research with partners and the public", then I'll wait to pass judgment. 

People like us are a very small slice of the public.  If the changes help with the messaging for the masses, then that is a good thing.

This.

Ignoring what weather weenies like us want in favor of what is simpler for the public to understand is the whole purpose of working with social scientists. I don't see any need to trash this decision until we see actual results from the change.

1 hour ago, Ground Scouring said:

Is there any overriding, large-scale, climatic forcing that is likely behind this? It definitely seems to be a theme, regardless of other factors.

I can't help but think the warming Pacific is influencing it.

On 2/19/2021 at 2:57 PM, andyhb said:

Look on the ensembles heading into March would suggest the potential for a warmer/wet period, with the possibility of severe wx somewhere, particularly east of the Plains. Again, this is tied to the retrograding longwave pattern across North America and the Eastern Pacific.

Can be seen here in the 12z EPS mean, watch the behavior of the ridging that generally starts over the eastern Pacific, whose retrogression eventually leads to the jet dropping into the Pacific NW.

Or we could just drop into split flow for the umpteenth time in the past decade and erase any chance for severe/a decent spring pattern, smh.

Secondary pulse in the strong trades near the dateline looks to becoming as the intraseasonal interference wanes going into March. Would expect some resurgence in the La Nina especially over the western ENSO regions.

Look on the ensembles heading into March would suggest the potential for a warmer/wet period, with the possibility of severe wx somewhere, particularly east of the Plains. Again, this is tied to the retrograding longwave pattern across North America and the Eastern Pacific.

Can be seen here in the 12z EPS mean, watch the behavior of the ridging that generally starts over the eastern Pacific, whose retrogression eventually leads to the jet dropping into the Pacific NW.

So uh... this pattern seems to be delivering, eh?

(I say from Heart of the Arctic, Oklahoma)

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

My response to your WxBell Kuchera issue response lol: Oh yeah agree, maybe they liked the publicity with those going viral on Twitter? Was probably a begrudging change made more urgent because Pivotal came out with Kuchera maps for the Euro.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

You mean Joe Bastardi and Ryan Maue (original creator of the graphics) would seek all the attention they can get?

Surely you can’t be serious!

(I am serious, and don’t call me Shirley)

Been nice knowing you all, given what has a good chance of happening in OK over the next week or so...

Looking like the real deal folks.

Setups like this with amplifying waves coming immediately in behind a PV lobe pushing a strong Arctic high into the Plains (and therefore not needing to worry about Ptype issues around here or even in TX) are exceedingly rare. The first storm next week is one thing (and obviously there is bust potential from dry slots/lack of moisture initially/exact track/suppression due to the Arctic air mass, etc.), but the real wild card is if it can be doubled up with the wave on its heels, which seems to be an increasingly possible scenario.

Does remind me a bit of the cold snap and back to back storms in Feb 2011. Regardless, the answer to the question in the thread/topic description should be a resounding yes.

Curious to see the exact periods of projected tornado events there. I have some disagreements with doing that, namely all of the things that could go wrong that can't be forecasted on the sub-seasonal/seasonal timescale. Are these periods just when "western trough/eastern ridge" is expected?

Lol, all the climate models are like "what severe weather season". NMME, CANSIPS, Euro, you name it. Poleward retracted jet + torching southwest/south-central US + dry.

A storm like the one towards the end of the 12z Euro would have almost unlimited potential with that Arctic air mass in the cold sector. That would be a rare combination of that plus a wide open Gulf. Shows the potential here if we can get a wave to properly amplify.

Not going to see many crazier -NAO blocks than this on the 00z Euro at 168.

Enjoy your 20"+ all.

Wants to torch the southwest/south-central States for spring too, not ideal for severe weather potential.

I do wonder if it's killing the Nina in the western zones too quickly though.

Things you probably want to see if you're wanting a big hit out of this thing in this sub-forum.

Track notwithstanding, powerful trough/jet streak + good moisture transport + cold air dumping in behind = potential for a blockbuster storm should the trough ejection go properly here (00z UK is an example of how that can be screwed up). 00z parallel GFS was dumping some stupid numbers over NE and IA.

Edit: 00z Euro also an example of how the ejection can get screwed up.

-PDO signature getting stronger over the last week per CDAS (cooling along the West Coast + warming over the north-central Pacific), as is the +TNI over the ENSO regions (Nino 4 substantially cooler than Nino 1.2).

13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Let's keep the complaining about who can top how bad your season has been so far and who's had it worst in the Banter thread and the good meteorlogical analysis and model discussion in here.

Lol @ McHenrySnow reacting with a weenie emoji to this. You're not acting like a degreed meteorologist, man.

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out.

It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection industries, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

That trough/pattern in late March/April for lack of a better term... yikes. 

2 hours ago, kayman said:

I agree that maybe those areas of the Upland South should be included such as Birmingham, Atlanta.  We could rename the subforum could be renamed "Tennessee Valley and Upland South".  These areas are typically undeserved by the Southeastern subforum.

Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.