andyhb

28 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Can we just take a moment to appreciate the beauty ugliness of this?

Fixed.

Amphan in the Bay of Bengal up to Category 4 status, rapid intensification occurring.

3 km NAM joins the party near the Capital District into S VT.

Can't say you pull area-averaged soundings like this too often up there.

Pretty solid agreement from the 00z convective allowing models (HRRR/ARW/NSSL) for a few supercells in upstate NY and then tracking along the MA-VT/NH borders later. I'm not a huge fan of the relative lack of steeper mid level lapse rates, but at least low level lapse rates are half decent leading to some rather large 0-3 km CAPE. Good wind profiles as well, wouldn't sleep on this setup up there.

Wednesday next week looks like a good opportunity for slow-moving supercells, sign me up.

On 4/20/2020 at 12:57 PM, WhiteoutWX said:

Put this in the wrong thread earlier:

Deterministic and ensemble guidance are all in relative agreement in this pattern persisting in the mid to extended range, with a trough over the east and ridge over the west. Even occasional hints of transient high-latitude ridging over the NAO domain which suggests this pattern may be slow to budge. I think it's pretty safe to say April is probably toast at this point for anyone outside the Gulf Coast states as far as tornadoes are concerned. May is still 10+ days away so we'll see how things evolve, but no real sign of a change to a more favorable plains tornado pattern for the foreseeable future.

On 5/1/2020 at 8:39 AM, WhiteoutWX said:

I don’t want to keep posting the same thing over and over and be super pessimistic but I’m really struggling to find anything encouraging in the long range that suggests a pattern change. The western ridge/eastern trough just keeps reloading again and again. As we go deeper into May you don’t need perfect setups to achieve severe events but still, the long wave pattern is leaving little room for even smaller events.

Not that the upcoming pattern for the next week or so will be great for severe prospects, but this is indeed getting a bit repetitive.

Two days after you posted the bolded, there was a localized tornado outbreak along I-35 in S OK that was probably the best April chase day in a portion of the Plains in awhile (along with more tornadoes on 4/24 in SE OK/NE TX).

Estill SC tornado upgraded to EF4.

Really like today's setup south of I-40 in OK. Likely a couple of outflow boundaries to interact with for storms coming off the dryline, plus winds (as of now) are remaining more backed than in model guidance. Residual capping may also encourage rather photogenic storm structure in addition to the tornado threat.

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The western ridge/East trof pattern is a disaster for the Plains severe weather season.   There are some signs the pattern may shift 5/5-5/10 but by that point many areas of TX/OK are nearing the slowing point of their season which ends around 6/1 usually 

What? Mid-late May is climatological peak season for these areas.

SREF popping a 90 this early (FH 72) is a pretty good indicator of a problem on Thursday.

10+ violent tornadoes and the rest of the numbers usually follow suit. Any outbreak like that automatically earns the title "historic" in my book. Actually any outbreak with more than a half dozen violent tornadoes does so.

There are other factors such as location (see: 5/31/1985) and time of year (e.g. 1/21-22/99, 2/5/08) that also factor in.

2 hours ago, Snowstorm920 said:

Noticing the models are mixing out low level moisture in a large swatch across the risk area during the day tomorrow from surface heating. Check out the surface dewpoint map below. That could really lessen the tornado/severe threat atleast for a time tomorrow afternoon/evening. LCLs get pretty high

 

Pressing X to doubt moisture mixing out that severely so close to the Gulf with unimpeded return flow. Not like the temps are in the upper 90s or 100s either.

Probably worth noting that while the progged warm sector on the models is not especially extensive in terms of northward extent, it is very extensive in the longitudinal (W-E) direction. This matters when you have a setup with westerly winds aloft.

Wouldn't be shocked if we end up with two EF4s out of that lead supercell.

Absolutely nuts.

35 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

It's mine, you can share it if you want on twitter

 

edit. NVM. Shared it on twitter.

Good stuff, retweeted.

1 hour ago, Bob's Burgers said:

Yazoo City (2010), Piedmont (2011), Bassfield (2020)

Not sure if this is yours or if you have a twitter account, but this should be shared.

Yet another EF3 in Columbia’s CWA.

Tornado scars showing up from visible satellite. Saw a lot of this post-4/27/11.

High end damage all around along this portion of the Bassfield-Soso, MS EF4 track.

Debris travelling crazy distances is a hallmark of high end tornadoes (and often high end setups) and this is no exception.

Just now, Calderon said:

I thought that pic was from the 2nd tornado in the Bassfield supercell?

Nope, I believe it is from the first tornado, which dissipated before hitting Bassfield.

Just now, Calderon said:

My problem is the vegetation and grass immediately adjacent to the foundation. One would expect an EF5 to not only have the force to do that to a house, but also chew up the grass and trees around it.

The tree partially laying on the slab is appears to be either a Laurel Oak or Water Oak, but very easy tree to knock over and/or split. It happens frequently in summertime storms in the southeast. A majority in the background were pine, which are softwood and pliable, but there’s a substantial amount of surface bark left.

Unless there is more drastic damage out there we haven’t seen pics of yet, I see it staying at EF4.

LIX keeping it at EF3 as of now.

17 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Bassfield is a prelim EF4. The trailing tornado is prelim EF2. 
 

 

Tornado from second supercell is prelim EF3. The first tornado from the lead supercell (same that produced the Bassfield EF4) is EF2 (in Walthall County). Just wanted to clarify since this all is quite confusing indeed.

Very intense vegetation damage along this portion of the first tornado's path near Bassfield, MS.