andyhb

Looking like the real deal folks.

Setups like this with amplifying waves coming immediately in behind a PV lobe pushing a strong Arctic high into the Plains (and therefore not needing to worry about Ptype issues around here or even in TX) are exceedingly rare. The first storm next week is one thing (and obviously there is bust potential from dry slots/lack of moisture initially/exact track/suppression due to the Arctic air mass, etc.), but the real wild card is if it can be doubled up with the wave on its heels, which seems to be an increasingly possible scenario.

Does remind me a bit of the cold snap and back to back storms in Feb 2011. Regardless, the answer to the question in the thread/topic description should be a resounding yes.

Curious to see the exact periods of projected tornado events there. I have some disagreements with doing that, namely all of the things that could go wrong that can't be forecasted on the sub-seasonal/seasonal timescale. Are these periods just when "western trough/eastern ridge" is expected?

Lol, all the climate models are like "what severe weather season". NMME, CANSIPS, Euro, you name it. Poleward retracted jet + torching southwest/south-central US + dry.

A storm like the one towards the end of the 12z Euro would have almost unlimited potential with that Arctic air mass in the cold sector. That would be a rare combination of that plus a wide open Gulf. Shows the potential here if we can get a wave to properly amplify.

Not going to see many crazier -NAO blocks than this on the 00z Euro at 168.

Enjoy your 20"+ all.

Wants to torch the southwest/south-central States for spring too, not ideal for severe weather potential.

I do wonder if it's killing the Nina in the western zones too quickly though.

Things you probably want to see if you're wanting a big hit out of this thing in this sub-forum.

Track notwithstanding, powerful trough/jet streak + good moisture transport + cold air dumping in behind = potential for a blockbuster storm should the trough ejection go properly here (00z UK is an example of how that can be screwed up). 00z parallel GFS was dumping some stupid numbers over NE and IA.

Edit: 00z Euro also an example of how the ejection can get screwed up.

-PDO signature getting stronger over the last week per CDAS (cooling along the West Coast + warming over the north-central Pacific), as is the +TNI over the ENSO regions (Nino 4 substantially cooler than Nino 1.2).

13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Let's keep the complaining about who can top how bad your season has been so far and who's had it worst in the Banter thread and the good meteorlogical analysis and model discussion in here.

Lol @ McHenrySnow reacting with a weenie emoji to this. You're not acting like a degreed meteorologist, man.

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out.

It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection industries, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

That trough/pattern in late March/April for lack of a better term... yikes. 

2 hours ago, kayman said:

I agree that maybe those areas of the Upland South should be included such as Birmingham, Atlanta.  We could rename the subforum could be renamed "Tennessee Valley and Upland South".  These areas are typically undeserved by the Southeastern subforum.

Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.

Some absolute monsters on that 12z EPS.

Not a single mention of the destructive, likely significant tornado in the northern suburbs of Birmingham (Fultondale/Center Point) tonight?

Also can a moderator change the title of this thread, considering it is certainly no longer 2019?

Did some skimming of SSTA data tonight and I'm intrigued by that warm pool centered at ~150˚W and 30˚S to the south of the cold SSTAs with the Nina. Based on looking into some previous analogs around this time, it seems like that strong meridional dipole is not present in years such as 2006, 2009, 2012, 2017, and 2018 (generally quieter severe seasons especially late season). It is more prevalent in several big Nina springs though, including 1974, 1976, and 2011.

It's probably to some degree why this CDAS-derived SSTA analog product from Tropical Tidbits is essentially grouping a who's who of Nina springs with a lot of tornadoes/severe weather, including some with very large outbreaks.

You can see the SSTA dipole present in the Southern Hemisphere in the mean here.

Quote

"It is like atmospheric magic. A meteorologist could not have co-located everything at once at the same time over one area. Tanking mid level heights with the incoming PV max, the most divergent portion of that upper jet coupling, strong 600-800 frontal forcing, strong low level moist theta-e advection into the frontal circulation, and extreme convergence into the low level cyclone. I am thinking this is going to be ripping heavy TSSN over N IL like nothing before."

This quote from TSSN12's sig via baro from GHD I.

9 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

I’m really over your constant harassment. 

8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I’m not harassing you, I’m disagreeing with you. If you’re going to continue to post unsubstantiated garbage, expect the disagreement to continue.

2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Nothing I said was unsubstantiated. 

Can you both take your crap to DMs?

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Is the interaction with the confluence to the north causing this shearing?

Yes. This is exactly it. The confluence between the TPV dipping southeastward into Ontario and the SE ridge downstream.

The reason for lower totals further east is because of the shearing of the parent shortwave and resultant partial loss of dynamic support with time. This has nothing to do with temperatures.

2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Dude, you don't get it. What occurred during that storm???? Got it yet???

The January 67 blizzard was not a phaser. It was one shortwave (more amplified than this one, but it was not a Jan 1978 type scenario).

1 minute ago, Angrysummons said:

Yeah, it does. Show me the phasing. That is the key for this system. Without it, it ends up a strung out turd with modest wet snow. You need the phase to ring out the wash cloth.

No, it isn't. Stop clogging up the thread.

This system has never been a "phaser" and it doesn't need to be for foot plus totals. The reasons why have been discussed ad nauseam over the past few days, but you continue with this borderline trolling nonsense.

9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This storm has some similarities to the GHD storm

2015? Sure.

2011? Not a chance in hell.

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Exactly.

Additionally...In an alternate universe where the storm system was suppressed far enough south where IND ended up in the heart of the snow swath, it would be a sub-par event.

This.

That would mean there's barely a shortwave left due to confluence from the ULL/TPV and the SE ridge, there would barely be a "brunt".