andyhb

@raindancewx I saw you post the TWC spring outlook elsewhere and am curious as to why you don’t agree with them for May/what your general thoughts for May are (for obvious reasons).

I will say that I’m willing to try my luck with an El Niño (contrary to Gensini’s tweet) given 2017 and 2018 were both Ninas and generally didn’t yield much chasing wise. 2015/2016 on the other hand...

Adding the new February run of the NMME to the growing signal for above normal precip in the Plains in peak season.

1 hour ago, BrandonC_TX said:

This isn't my subforum, but I did find it interesting that the 0z NAM and 0z NAM3K are trying to bring lower 60s dewpoints into southern and central Ohio for Thursday, along with small amounts of SBCAPE.  The model is also showing the moist air in southern IL and southern IL as well, though it penetrates further north in OH and at a more ideal time of day (afternoon). Some of the earlier NAM runs had the same or similar dewpoints reaching southern and central Ohio.  Plenty of helicity too.  That said, I understand that the NAM models can be a bit overdone sometimes.

Yeah I noticed that. That seems to be the only model not socking the entire area in with clouds through the day. Given this is such a potent system dynamically (500 mb jet in excess of 120 kts on Thursday), there's definitely going to be strong forcing for ascent over a large area, i.e. clouds/precip, but I do wonder whether the dry punch aloft might be stronger than forecasted by some of the global models and sneak in there/allow some insolation for a time. Should that happen, the dewpoints are sufficient for a severe threat and the shear is obviously off the charts (70-80+ kts of bulk shear) if anything can organize.

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Too early to start a spring discussion about how the most recent Euro weeklies are showing western troughing and eastern ridging in mid to late March?

Normally I'd say yes with it being only ~3 weeks to met spring, but the weeklies have also been performing horribly all winter lol.

I'll tell you what, that system on Thursday would be a major severe wx/tornado outbreak in late March/April for the region should that type of setup come back around.

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

True, but a lot of things still have to go right. I read on another forum that forecast trough evolution was trending less favorable for severe wx next week, despite the extreme temperature swings we will see. Still plenty of room for things to change, though.

However in 2015 a lot of setups didn't hit their ceiling (May 16 being the most notable example) due to early initiation/junk convection. 2016 (apart from Katie/Wynnewood/Sulphur, Dodge City & Chapman) and 2017 panned out in a similar fashion.

But one trough isn’t really a way to judge a whole season’s potential, especially one that requires phasing in order to reach any sort of potential. All you can really ask for at this range is a hint at a good large scale regime, hence my post. Obviously some of 2015’s setups didn’t reach their ceilings, but at least there were troughs/enhanced precip in peak season, which is more than can be said for last year in particular.

This is one of the stronger signals I've seen in recent years from the seasonal guidance (the other being 2015) for above normal precipitation in the Plains during the main severe/chasing season. There wasn't much reason for optimism last year given the near across the board signalling for dryness /well above normal temps heading into spring + the ENSO/tropical forcing regime we were in, but it definitely seems to be different at least on a larger scale. There is a lack of drought across most of the states east of the Continental Divide right now.

California getting persistent stormy patterns with multiple heavy precip events is one of the changes from recent years too.

12z Euro run would suggest actually a pretty substantial severe threat next Tuesday in IL/vicinity with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints present and very strong shear. That would be an incredible flip from today/tomorrow.

Man if that wave can amplify just a bit more and get some more Gulf moisture involved, this could easily be a top 10 snowstorm for the subforum, and I mean that with 100% seriousness.

It's not everyday you see such an ideal air mass in the cold sector with potential access to anomalously high PWATs. This also probably won't have the wind component that some other major storms had in the region, which should yield better rates.

Lol now that is the clipper to end all clippers, would have Jan 2005 licking its dust.

That is some truly mind-numbing, 1994-esque cold there on the Euro, 850 mb temp anomalies of -30˚C, only this time with a major winter storm along with it.

New CPC outlook hot off the presses for AMJ and MJJ looks very promising in terms of chasing.

Relying on a phase is always a dangerous game to play if you're looking for the high end.

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

The new run of the Euro weeklies is basically like 2014, wire to wire and averaged out, the core of the coldest anomalies centered over the central and western sub.

Living E of the Rockies now, please no.

Also looking at how long the cold lasted and the futility of that subsequent severe season, please no.

19 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

-NAO, +PNA, -AO.. 

That is not a +PNA.

Monstrous dendrites falling here along I-35 in North Norman. Deformation zone setting right up over the OKC metro.

Well I just picked a fantastic day to be flying back to OKC from vacation. 

Both the 00z and 12z OUN soundings showed a relatively classic ZR profile, although that should change later with dynamical cooling aloft associated with the cold core ULL. Could be the most significant snow accumulations in the region since Feb 1-2, 2011 (GHD storm). Saw a recent report of TSSN in Lawton as well.

3 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

It was a joke.

So was mine to an extent, but still, please no.

2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

I bet you all anything this pattern gets cold and wet just in time for April, May and June.

Can we not...

That time of year for the annual thread as spring is less than three months away once more.

Following another extremely quiet year with a record low for EF3+ tornadoes and zero violent tornadoes for the first time since at least 1900 (going back through Grazulis' records), we look to be coming out of a weak El Nino event with some potential for maintenance through the spring, along with a PDO that may hover from neutral through positive. Last spring saw an amazing lack of troughing activity through peak season in the western/central states, with winter essentially flipping to summer. Would not be terribly surprised if this season blooms (if it does) a bit later.

Curious to hear general thoughts going into next season, hard to imagine one more quiet than this one for the Plains at least, although I thought 2014 took the cake in that department...

Number of Tornadoes: 1170

First High Risk: April 23rd

On 12/11/2018 at 10:00 AM, yoda said:

KJAX reported an EF3 on December 2nd that damaged the Naval Submarine Base at King's Bay in GA... strongest TOR in recent memory in JAX CWA... in addition, a docked Coast Guard vessel confirmed a wind gust of 144 mph -- https://www.weather.gov/jax/ef-3

Tornado was reportedly between 1/3 and 1/2 mile wide and on ground for around 10 minutes... 

Hmm, that has to be one of the more direct in situ measurements ever gathered of a tornado.

Looking like we're on track for the first year without an F/EF4+ rated tornado since at least 1880, extending the database back through Grazulis' archives.

Speaking of that, I am getting my hands on both volumes of the new Significant Tornadoes out next year come hell or high water.

Gotta wonder what this exact setup would've done with spring time thermodynamics at the surface. Not even necessarily "prime" spring time thermodynamics, I'm talking like 67-71 T/60-64 Td here. 00z ILX sounding had a classic sickle shaped hodograph with over 400 m2/s2 ESRH, with most of that concentrated in the 0-1 km layer, not to mention 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. Pretty solid mid level lapse rates ~7.5 C/km as well thanks to 500 mb temps below -20˚C, that was the key here.

Should note that none of the global models had surface winds even close to that strongly backed over the area.

Overheads of the damage in Taylorville.