andyhb

One main thing that really leans me away from the "oh no the season is over" scenario (beyond the fact that it isn't May yet) is the persistent troughing showing up across the Bering Sea and Alaska in the mid range guidance. There is a fairly strong Pacific jet with that. With the lack of a death ridge signal (more of just a knell in the flow over the next week and a half), one would think that some degree of equatorward amplification will take place in the west given this large scale setup. That cutoff/closed low off the SW coast, provided it does eventually get picked up and doesn't retrograde, could serve to clear the way for that eventual amplification.

54 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

lol @ calling the season before May first....

 

You have no idea what May is going to bring. Just stop. 

Lol everyone is kind of watching time go by and seeing the uncertainty/anxiousness rise. This is nothing new.

There is no need to be bullheaded about it either.

With a pitiful pattern it looks like heading towards May I might add. Upper flow over the CONUS dies with the unfavorable +dAAM/dt tendency.

A lot of bad in the CPC analogs too with 2006 and 1987 showing up at/near the top (easily two of the worst Mays for chasing).

Just now, bjc0303 said:

For sure. I definitely think an event happens, just would love to see us maximize our potential for once lol. 

On the other hand, the CMC and UK have basically nothing because they aren't nearly as amplified with Friday's trough. Thing more or less just slides through the large scale flow as opposed to really digging.

1 minute ago, bjc0303 said:

Which is my biggest concern. Time of year says amplification is a big worry. 12z euro while still impressive did not have the best overlap between instability and shear. 

GFS was definitely more promising than the 00z run though.

4 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

Day 7 outlook and I can’t say I’m surprised at all. The general threat area has been highlighted well by most guidance. Considering GFS likely underforecasting instability, forecast wind fields on the GFS/ECMWF look pretty impressive..by 21z. Going to be one to keep an eye on. 

I'm pretty impressed with the overall synoptics with this system (especially the strong LLJ throughout the afternoon), looks like a fairly prototypical earlier season High Plains event. Also a strong LLJ like that will help counteract any negative effects the ongoing drought might have on moisture return. Need that lead system to both help recover the Gulf sufficiently after the FROPA this weekend but also stay a bit less amplified so as to not suppress the cyclogenesis/warm sector behind it.

Certainly taking more note of Friday with the recent model runs aside from the GFS (which looks to be too fast). The 500 mb winds over the southern half of the threat especially have definitely shifted more straight out of the SW as opposed to the SSW, partly due to the somewhat more positive tilt nature of the trough. Not all of guidance is indicating a wash out in the morning/early afternoon either now. Curious to see how far north the destabilization gets closer in proximity to the surface low, it seems possible that we could have an arcing band of semi-discrete storms up in that area.

Low level shear should be rather favorable over most of the threat area, although I do have some questions regarding more boundary-parallel deep layer shear in some portions of the risk. Should note that a lobe of vorticity (especially apparent on the latest Euro run) on the SW side of the ULL may lead to pressure falls further south and subsequent convergence/low level wind response.

2010s post-2012 are fun, eh?

This entire regime that we've been in for most of the last half decade has been very testing on my patience for following this stuff (and that says a lot). Fortunately there was 2016 to have success with chasing to keep the interest high, but aside from that, not a whole lot.

All of this bupkis on Twitter/etc. about calling the season now isn't helping either.

1 hour ago, Quincy said:

I said that it doesn't look like anything "big" at that point. Yeah, a surface low below 990mb over the central Plains is pretty impressive, but with an event so many days out and models continuing to evolve on the details, I'm not getting overly excited yet.

I mean, my frustration is more arising from Twitter than anything else, where people are basically trolling while not offering anything productive regarding actual meteorology. You're fine.

That was probably the wrong thread to quote on that.

1 hour ago, bjc0303 said:

You’re shocked that a website dedicated to storm chasing focuses on the best region FOR storm chasing? Lol 

No, I'm annoyed by some of the lack of objective analysis for anything that isn't focused on the Plains.

My analysis now is that this thing is too amplified and its wavelength is too short. How quickly everything turns to a lesser threat these days.

1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro with a 977mb low near North Platte NE at 12z next Friday.

Too amplified though, trough matures too quickly and thus the next day looks like a mess with an occluding surface low.

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Quincy is not impressed. Neither is Jeff.

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2018-severe-wx-chase-season-discussion.29986/page-3

Would be nice if I saw more than just statements about the Plains there.

That's all I'm going to say about that.

Well this is rather impressive, to say the least.

The Euro/EPS for the last several runs has been indicating a large scale pattern that could result in a more widespread severe wx episode next week should it hold until then. Seems there is some potential for an unseasonably strong trough to eject at that time. The EPS mean last night had a sub-990 mb (yes, sub-990 mb) lee cyclone at 216 hours, which is pretty phenomenal for a 51 member mean that far out. Something to keep an eye on.

38 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Will be nice if we can actually get some decent ridging for an extended period in the east. The general pattern since November, with a few exceptions, doesn’t lend much confidence to that. 

The idea shown on the Euro/EPS mean is a more low amplitude pattern that doesn't necessarily mean a big SE ridge.

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

It looks like trackable snow threats will continue straight into the first half of April this year north of the Ohio River.  Impressive -EPO and -NAO induced cold shot later this week lingering through at least the first 10 days of the month.  Some signal for potentially decent snow as the cold really moves in around April 3-6th.  The 12z Euro was rather amusing with a high-ratio snow for parts of the region April 4th-5th with temps in the 10s/20s where it's snowing.  

The 500 mb height gradient across the SW is total garbage for this weekend especially on the Euro and the most recent 18z GFS.

Looks at recent GFS and especially Euro runs for this weekend -> 

Just can't get anything going whatsoever apparently. Doesn't help that we aren't getting a lot of help from the polar jet.

Yeah the pattern next weekend (specifically the 18th and 19th) is definitely beginning to catch my attention. Large warm sector being suggested with days of return flow and the potential for a seasonally strong trough to eject out of the SW. Plenty of ways for that to fall apart closer in though, but moisture looks to be available with quality mid level lapse rates (i.e. thermodynamics are generally a non-issue) assuming things come together.

For now all I will say on that is a warm sector as extensive (with quality BL moisture) as is being progged by the GFS and Euro for Saturday generally yields problems in the cold season. A lot of details to be sorted out surrounding the influence of the strong SE ridge and the trough's ejection though.

12z Euro was showing a fairly significant severe weather setup (first of the year if it comes into fruition) over the Red River Valley eastward into the Arklatex on Tuesday.

Multiple reports of damage trickling out of that area now.

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Not much moisture. dont see that changing. 

Sound analysis as usual.

Just now, Hoosier said:

How about a Plains drought?

2013-14 say hi.

1 hour ago, bjc0303 said:

I mean, you could say that the pattern sucked and that we didn't get any prominent events, but to me it's still weird to judge chase season quality on numbers of EF-3+ tornadoes.

I wasn't necessarily judging it just from the perspective of chasing though.