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andyhb

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by andyhb

  1. So some good signs were on the HRRR but not the whole package I assume. The other thing I have noticed is that sig. tornadoes have affected some portion of the Joplin metro area not only in 2011 but also in 2003 and in 1971. Three times in forty years sure seems like an awful lot. I would imagine there have been numerous other funnel clouds and a few F0s in the mix as well over the years.

    Compare that to areas like the Oklahoma City, Birmingham/Tuscaloosa and Little Rock metros and it doesn't seem like a lot, although what matters is that Joplin got the big one just like Birmingham and OKC have gotten...

  2. Classic fall storm moving into the Coast. Definitely a wind producer as well as heavy rain/snow at higher elevations. Sub 975 mb sfc low right now.

    post-6489-0-82496000-1321951670.jpg

    post-6489-0-66447200-1321951863.jpg

    Metro Vancouver

    9:08 PM PST Monday 21 November 2011

    Wind warning for

    Metro Vancouver continued

    Southeasterly winds of 80 to 100 km/h over coastal sections of the central coast, north and West Vancouver Island tonight.

    South to southeast winds of 70 to 90 km/h over Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Southern Howe Sound, East Vancouver Island, Sunshine Coast, and Southern Gulf Islands tonight.

    A burst of southwest inflow of 80 to 100 km/h affecting inlets of the central coast Tuesday morning.

    This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

    Two approaching low pressure disturbances from the Pacific ocean will bring yet another round of unfavourable weather to many regions in coastal British Columbia tonight. Heavy snowfall will continue over Whistler and will begin over Central Coast - inland sections early this evening. About 10 to 15 cm of the white stuff is expected for Central Coast - inland sections while another 20 to 30 cm will likely fall over Whistler tonight.

    Rain at times heavy is forecast to develop this evening over the north shore of Vancouver, Howe Sound, the Sunshine Coast and areas from Comox to Parksville on East Vancouver Island. 60 mm of rain is possible over these regions by Tuesday morning.

    Strong southeasterly winds will redevelop with the arrival of the next system tonight for much of coastal British Columbia including the Lower Mainland. These winds are expected to diminish quickly Tuesday morning in the wake of the disturbance.

    With the track of the low into the central coast of British Columbia, a quick burst of southwesterly inflow of 80 to 100 km/h is possible near Bella Coola Tuesday morning.

  3. I guess you can never fully anticipate an EF5 making a direct hit on a heavily populated area but I think we knew the tornado risk was nonzero even though most of the attention wasn't on that area. I think SPC had a 5% chance there but I'd have to double check that. It was a very bad sign when they were already reporting like 25 deaths right after it happened.

    10% hatched around the Joplin area.

  4. Just thinking back to that day... the tornado obviously caught all of us by surprise. In the thread everyone was focused on the Midwest and it wasn't until the 70dbz+ debris ball appeared over Joplin that people started posting. Then almost immediately after came Jeff P's dire spotter network report did anyone begin to realize what was happening. We couldn't get tv coverage, radio stations were out, scanners weren't available. Then sometime after, which wasn't more than probably twenty minutes, TWC's Mike Bettes arrived on the scene and we all saw the destruction first hand.

    Well...

    From what I remember... TWC went live, then national and international stations jumped on the story within the hour and it was a huge mess of confusion because no one knew what was happening.

    One thing I personally remember and feeling anxious about was CNN's coverage. After posting in the thread, reading online articles, and watching TWC online... it took CNN what felt like hours to start to report the facts. The headline was "BREAKING NEWS: TORNADO SLAMS JOPLIN, MISSOURI" and they reiterated over and over that no news was coming out of the city, no one knew what was going on, and affiliates were en route... even though, what I remember, TWC was already reporting facts and information was quickly becoming available on, for example, social network sites.

    CNN just kept talking about how it sounded bad, no info, then they got a hold of a chaser in Joplin who was at some highway service station that was skimmed and the chaser for probably an hour continued to report his story of "somewhat moderate damage, they saw trees down" etc.

    Anyone remember this? I wonder what CNN's deal was. By the time they turned off live programming for the night, they still knew next to nothing, even though other outlets were factual and up to date.

    CNN's nonsense was even worse on the day of the April 27th outbreak and the aftermath, I don't even want to go there because it will piss me off, tbqh.

  5. I watched the Jeff and Kathryn Piotrowski chase video. It follows them from Kansas to Joplin where they catch the tornado as it crosses Schiffidecker Ave and continue east on 20th until they have to stop due to debris in the road. They were very close and were almost overtaken by the tornado. The inflow jets were very powerful. There's nothing really disturbing on the video and it has some interviews with people involved in the tornado.

    Yeah that part on the video on Youtube where Kathryn screams "BACK UP!" is scarily intense, and then part after you can just hear the desperation in Jeff's voice when he reports the magnitude of the situation.

    "I have a very destructive, probably F4...maybe F5...goin' through the city of Joplin right now, on the south side of town and it's doin' massive destruction...It's...It's a mile wide tornado, It's tearin' up the entire city, I'm on the south side of Joplin right now..."

    Still get chills from that.

  6. Seems to me based on the service assessment that there may be a push to make "tornado emergency" a separate warning per recommendation 2.

    They clearly state they want to maintain the existing POD but want to "provide a non-routine warning mechanism that prompts people to take immediate life saving action in extreme events like strong to violent tornadoes"

    Also to modify the warning structure to be more impact based than phenomenon based.

    All of the above would be great I think.

    I remember several of the original warning texts during the Apr. 27th Outbreak reading something like this:

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

    325 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR...

    SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

    SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

    NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

    * UNTIL 415 PM CDT

    * AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

    A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO ABOUT NEAR ARAB...MOVING

    NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

    HEBRON.

    COLUMBUS CITY.

    GRANT.

    WOODVILLE.

    LIM ROCK.

    LARKINSVILLE.

    I kind of thought that might be a good idea in the future, except to create the separate TORE category as mentioned above, perhaps with red text or something like in a PDS watch to highlight the threat of the situation.

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