andyhb

Rumours of the La Nina's demise were greatly exaggerated.

2 EF3s, Winterset actually may have a shot at EF4 based on some of the damage I've seen. That was a nasty tornado.

Reminder to use the FRAM estimates available on PivotalWx for ice accretion and not ZR QPF. It's a much better (and scientifically sound) method for estimating/forecasting icing events.

Michigan: where exciting weather goes to die.

7 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

I still remember reading that exact post when he posted it that night. Great memories 

Here they are.

Someone needs to dig up the baro post in @Thundersnow12's sig for nostalgic purposes, since I'm pretty sure it was about now 11 years ago that things started to go to hell in a hand basket around these parts.

I have a bad feeling about I-44 particularly in OK with this one. Setup screams either a big sleet event with snow/ZR mixed in, or a nasty ice storm.

Ready 2 b buried?

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

There might have been some potential still left on the table with that trough evolution in the Southwest/Plains.


.

Thought the same thing looking at that. If we get that shortwave to amplify just a bit more and eject more intact, not only does the potential for a blizzard go up, but I could see jackpots approaching 2 feet from that wave alone given how moisture logged this thing is.

Effectively, this thing is basically two storms in one.

N IN and NW OH absolutely destroyed.

18z GFS is going to be an absolute crush job. Wider swath of large accumulations with the lead wave and the second one is coming in deeper.

Northern stream looks like it's going to be too dominant on the Euro.

St. Louis and Indy get absolutely shellacked by the CMC, I-70 special.

Did places in N RI and SE MA legit get 4 feet in 1978 or is that just urban legend?

Most maps I see from that are around 3 feet or so in the jackpot zones.

QPF output on some of these models is nutty. Not very often where you talk about such a moisture laden system that lasts awhile, but this could be it.

Too sheared out.

This is looking like a top 5er potentially for the general Boston area.

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I've been thinking that.

Granted for storms that have no chance of slipping out to sea, the SSTAs will obviously be a positive factor in terms of intensification, but that might not be the case for borderline events or those that suddenly have double low configs.

So when do we start the conversation about what would happen if the SSTAs weren't so warm re: excess convection dragging the surface response east?

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The wind is part of the reason why posting kuchera is silly here. 

I believe the dynamic snow ratio (attempts to account for dendrite fracturing due to the wind) from Weathernerds might be a good reference here.

Put this 500 mb plot in some sort of new Kocin-Uccellini textbook because that is just about perfect.

What in the actual f*ck...

Just now, tiger_deF said:

From someone still relatively new to meteorology, what about this is so impressive?

Deep, saturated dendritic (snow) growth zone with large amounts of upward motion centered within it from the intense mid-level frontogenesis, cold temperatures closer to the surface -> very, very high snowfall rates. Wind will cut down somewhat, but you'd be easily talking 3-4"+/hr rates with that.

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Wow

Metrowest 18z Sat:

Ok what in the actual f*ck...

Just now, ROOSTA said:

These events beat tracking a tropical entity hands-down, twice on Sunday. The variables to consider are far greater, damage far lesser and fun if you know what to look for. From a personal perspective it's always been the time leading to the event not the event itself.  

I'd hesitate from declaring this with a potential sub-975 mb low interacting with astronomical high tides.