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andyhb

Meteorologist
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  1. Looking over this for the past few days, Friday could be a very nasty day basically from the Sabine Valley across the Lower MS Valley towards the Tennessee Valley. The 500 mb setup on the GFS/Euro/etc. favors a significant severe event, and a few of the models are starting to catch on to greater destabilization than indicated earlier, and some of this could be nocturnal. 30% hatched on the D3 currently and I think there's a good chance we see at least a moderate risk by D2/D1.

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  2. Lol, now the ensembles back away from the more amplified 3/26 idea. Naturally.

    Initial troughing isn't amplified enough in the west and there's too much vorticity leaking eastward early + the PV lobe near Hudson Bay is creating confluence that shears the trough out with eastward extent.

    Looks like it's 3/24 or bust right now.

  3. Going to mention this here to start, but while the shorter-term attention is on the trough coming through around 3/23-24 for appreciable severe potential, something bigger may be lurking right in behind if the following system amplifies more in the west. This has been a trend in the ensemble guidance for the last several runs.

    The lead system never really makes much of a dent in the Gulf as far as frontal intrusions go. What's left behind is a very moist air mass waiting to be pulled north. The 500 mb setup around 3/26-27 on all of the 12z models except the GFS (lol) would indicate the possibility of a rather large scale severe weather event should a couple of tweaks occur. It probably does need to amplify a bit more to get an earlier low-level response for pulling moisture north, but the signal is generally for a broad-based trough with a very intense jet max and strong flow overspreading a large area. All will depend on track/initial amplification and the timing/magnitude of the low-level response and surface cyclogenesis.

    Below is the run-to-run 500 mb mean shift in the last few runs of the EPS. Can see how it's shifting slower (more wave spacing) and deeper, both of which would allow for more modification following the 3/23-24 system.

    f980a5ac-c20a-459b-b384-d9b84188e04b.gif.1ee10d4cb2f224e1f1fbf842cfafc3df.gif

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  4. Huh? Instability is one the strengths with this setup especially closer to the Red River unless you're only looking at the GFS. A lot of CAPE concentrated in the lowest 6 km, which should yield some strong updrafts assuming initiation does take place.

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