ErinInTheSky

Had a beautiful hike in the remnants of the snow on the Billy Goat trail yesterday

GFS shows 0.85” zr in the DC and central Maryland and northern Virginia area.

Holy crap look at the zr totals on GFS.

I'm trying to conceptualize this... is there a reason why negative busts are much more common than positive ones?

That sounds incredible! I'm in the burbs in NW MoCo so I assume busting high is possible here. I often over-perform the forecasts, but usually only by an inch or so, mainly due to microclimate. But I have yet to get a 2-4" event last minute warp to a 6-12".

So this last storm was nice, fun, etc. But I've been here now for I think what, 4 winters now, and it seems like every time we get models showing 12+" of snow, it gets cut down to 3-6" last minute. So my question: Does it ever work the other way around? All the models showing 3-6" of snow in the DC area and instead, we get 12" after a last 48 hours model flip?

Hard to be mad at. 2-6" event on Christmas.

A few tiny flakes in Germantown

Solid 0.25" cartopper. Snow on snow is always lovely. Everything is white and glaciated outside.

Looks like I picked up half an inch of sleet or something last night. everything looks like snow but you can walk on it like ice.

Something looks to have formed just to my west here in Germantown. Maybe another snow band. Would be nice to squeeze an extra 1" out of this.

3.5" - 12/16. Fun storm, although it didn't hit the early 12+" model runs. 3" of snow, then freezing rain turned to slop, then sleet bomb and snow-crete everywhere. 0.25" - 12/17. Overnight cartopper. 0.5" - 1/25. Just a normal snow, some crusty freezing rain on top. 7" - 1/31 to 2/2. Long duration event. Model runs showed 2'+, but on day of event, they showed 10". I got 2" the first day, and almost nothing the second day. I was feeling pretty despondent and forecasts looked like they would bust. Then on the third day when I wrote it all off, boom. Line set up right over me and dropped 5 more inches. I loved it. Went sledding, built snowmen. Still, I would like to get my thumps up front, it was way to stressful a storm. 1" - 2/7 Absolute slop. Forecast for 3-6" and got 1". It mostly rained but when it snowed, it came down in huge parachutes that instantly melted. Everything turned into a slurry outside. 2" - 2/11. Cute overnight show. Forecast was for 4-6, got 2". But it wasn't as stressful as the other times, as it was overnight, everything was white in the morning with a little snow still falling. 2.5" - 2/18. SLEET BOMB! My favorite kind of storm. Hugged the NAM this time and thank god I did. Models showed 8" for my back yard, NAM was consistently showing 2.5" of straight sleet and 2.5" is what I got. Insanely heavy stuff, doesn't compact easily, doesn't melt quickly. 0.5" - 2/22. Just a nice little refresher coat for the glaciated sleet bomb. Total: 16.25"

Wasn't as great a storm as I had hoped, but objectively, had I not known about its potential, I would be happy with it. 3" of snow, and then sleet and freezing rain is hard to be upset over in mid-December. Still chasing my first 1' snow event.

I think I'm about to get my last chance for back end snow as this band moves in east from Frederick. Looking at reports though it's just more sleet.

People are skidding all up and down Blunt Road near me and it's so unfortunate. That road is a car trap any time we have frozen precip. Also: Am I the only one that is fine with sleet fests? Like, seeing sleet just filled my heart with joy after the last 3-4 hours of rain. Getting a lot of sleet seems to add some good staying power. One of my most memorable storms was... was it 2017? With the absolute epic sleet bomb 3.5" of sleet in Gaithersburg.

Holy crap that gives me like 6-8" in Germantown.

It’s a sleet blizzard (slizzard?) outside. Germantown.

Finally back down to freezing and I hear pingers outside. At lest the rain isn't going to keep washing the snow away.

That would be nice. Ground is still white here but everything is melting/getting washed away so fast.

Well. The roads are clear again. This rain is basically washing all the snow away.

I'm down for 2-3 more inches. That would put me at 6 total, although it's kind of all slop now.

There WAS 3 inches of snow here. Now it's like... just snowy mush all around.

The slop in my back yard is epic. Rather than describe it... here's a picture. This is gonna be nasty after a freeze + snow tonight.

Not a ton. Just 3”. If I get 2-4” on the back I’d be thrilled. Lots of rain and sleet right now. It’s gonna be a mess.

That would seal the deal. Imagine how long it would take to melt.