buckeye

Made no sense to me when ILN left their northern tier counties off the wwa. Pretty rough out there right now just like every model was showing yesterday.

36 hours ago several models were big dog’n Chicago thru Detroit. Now it looks like Chicago won’t see crap and Detroit will get a run of the mill advisory snow. If you can’t trust models 2 days out, wtf is the point? Crazy

I literally just saw this on a news feed and it was like 10 days ago. Ganahl was the goat of cmh weather. He moved to Columbus from Iowa during the infamous late 70s winters. I followed and watched him for nearly 45years from when I was in junior high school to becoming a grandpa. He was a huge snow weenie too, loved cold and snow. That’s why it was fun to watch him. RIP Jym, May the blizzards be plentiful in heaven!

I honestly don't know what would be more embarrassing as a teenage boy.....getting busted at 2am surfing pornhub or getting busted at 2am surfing the 00z euro run.

this one is more interesting to me. Highest probability is that it's too far north for mby, but it's a convoluted set up and seems like models are having trouble figuring out where the dominant low eventually forms and tracks. The nao will be neutral, the AO is in the tank, the PNA is positive, and the mjo will be in 8, so I don't think a cut up into the lakes is that likely, but still could come too far north for the i-70 crowd. Also depends on what this weeks storm does. Very rare to see back to back storms take a similar track within 72 hours of each other. Models love to show that kind of porn but reality is usually a different story. At least something to track though.

don't get too excited, this was a euro op run five days ago. Amazing how quickly 36.7" of snow can disappear. Don't even get me started on the ensembles either. They have been horrible. Consistent runs across the board from ggem, euro, and gfs all showing 20"+ for mby over the 360hr run, (multiple times last week). Incredible how bad they are. I am glad to see our sub finally cashing in further north and west, even though cmh continues to miss south, north, and east. At least it's not the eastcoast getting it this time.

when are them wins com'n? Been a long time....really long time.

if you combine the small pile in the foreground with the one in the background, your snow will last longer. #respectingthesnow

brutal year for the i-70 on north crowd...sitt'n on the bench sniff'n the northern edge.

Can we get one of these maps to be right…even just once a season? Hell even half right would be nice. (That’s the 360 hr euro snow total for 12z)

Our snow totals over the last several years must have crashed our average here in CMH. I didn't realize it, but CMH has not officially recorded a 6" or greater snowfall since 2015. I'm sure mby has touched or exceeded that but still, that's crazy.

yup. On a humorous note, JB finally goes warm for the first time in, (almost ever), and look what happened. I mean, he has to HATE the fact that he never saw places like New Orleans and Pensacola having a record snow year...that's the wheelhouse he claims to OWN. Instead he got pwned. He'll never put out a warm forecast again lol.

have another drink....

it won't

These medium range snow total maps, whether they're Op or ens, are completely worthless regardless of the model. You would have more accuracy going to a corner psychic shop and asking how much snow, (and that's not sarcasm either). On a broader note, I know some mets get bent when a weenie like myself says it doesn't seem like there's been any improvement to long range forecasting in the last 20 years, (and I know there are technical stats that would prove that wrong), but it's really hard for a weenie like myself to see improvement. It feels exactly like the same crapshoot it was when I started following this stuff in the early 2000's This winter is a perfect example. I didn't see a single long range forecast for this winter made back in fall that came even remotely close to what's unfolded.

Like my wife. We'll get 2" of snow and she be like, "omg, we must have like 8" out there!" Of course I never correct her, I simply nod my head to reinforce the illusion.

NO

I mean anything is possible, (snowball fights on Bourbon Street for example), but I find it hard to believe we end up with a wall to wall cold January followed by the same for February. I mean we'd be talking about winters of yore. Models always seem to get stuck when a pattern persists...like trying to turnaround an aircraft carrier. I think once the warmth, (or at least milder), pattern actually starts arriving we'll start seeing the fantasy cold shots fading. But I agree the transition will bring some decent storm chances for the sub, probably transitioning to rain for us but better snow chances especially further west. The PNA is still impressively stubborn as hell but trying to break below neutral and the mjo is skirting the warm phases thru the COD as we get into the first week of Feb.

Trough too far east and always positively tilted, makes it tough to brew up a nor’easter.

have to admit, we've had a snowcover now for quite awhile. Unusual in these parts. See how much rain we get Saturday and then if anything squally develops Sunday ahead of the next plunge.

yea, the early week plunge is still very cold but the models have backed off of the stupid stuff. (edit: ggem still showing -28 in central OH ). I think we start seeing overall moderation in LR, with models backing off of the non-stop arctic plunges out of Canada. For snowlovers, especially in your neck of the woods that's probably a good thing anyways, better chance of lows cutting further west or on top of us.

remember when January was supposed to be warm?

gfs might have to be the designated driver of the big 3 models. Has us bottoming out around zero next tues-wed while the euro has us -18 and the ggem, (completely sh*t faced) has us -28 which would blow away the all time record low. I would imagine we would have to have a deep snow pack and clear skies for that to even come remotely close. I'll also add that if we get numbers anywhere close to that the good news is the rubberband probably breaks and winter, (for the most part), is essentially over. Think of December 1989 for example. This has that feel except a month later. Relentless cold that started at the beginning of the month, climaxed the third week and disappeared for the rest of the winter. A man can hope at least.

but they don't really say cold either (at least after the next week and a half). Most interesting one to me is the PNA showing it might actually go negative for the first time since beginning of December. Clearly that's been a huge driver of what we've been experiencing.

I get to the end of all these model runs....360hrs out...expecting to see the beginning of the collapse of the cold, (especially looking at where the indices are headed), and yet the cold just keeps reloading in Canada.