buckeye

I believe 2024 was central Ohio's worst tornado/severe season in our history. As far as mby, we dodged every bullet. Late summer, early fall drought was also notable.

OTOH the high is pretty far nw , (at least for our neck of the woods), which is why I thought the influence of it wouldn't be that suppressive. I think it's the confluence to the northeast that is really f'ing things up. Sucks to see this turn to a sheared mess again, if that does happen. Only bright spot is my passion for this stuff is wavering quite a bit, probably because I'm older and probably because we've been slapped around so much the last several winters you eventually start to get numb to it all. I still prefer a torch but if it's gonna get annoyingly cold it would be nice to have a snow cover.

6z euro is weaker and south.... yuck

this storm thread went sideways. back to the storm, 18z more north with precip shield

when i think of similar storms that trended north, (to my peril), I think of Feb. 12-13 '07. That storm happened on a Tuesday. Models were onto it a week before showing a several day runs in a row of a swath of 2-3' of snow across KY into DC. Over the weekend the models started shifting north and by Sunday we were in the bullseye of the heavy swath . That stayed consistent right up to the day of, Tuesday morning, where we had a winterstorm warning and were forecasted to get 12". The comma head snow came up from the south looking like a solid wall of dark blue on the radar. It started snowing around 8am and by 11am the pingers started and quickly everything turned to sleet. We might have picked up an 1-2" before that happened, and we ended up with crap. Meanwhile the storm became a full fledge blizzard for people further north and west, (including Lafayette home of you know who). That was a brutal last minute north shift. The set up is sort of similar with this one except the center of the PV was pretty much due north of the lakes in Canada vs further northeast where it is situated this time.

looking at the 84 rgem, I bet canadian comes further north and stronger. Thinking we might see that trend start today. Confluence in the northeast moving futher east and stronger storm out west. Heads up northern OH/southern MI

That would be nice for cmh. I have no feeling either way whether this heads further south and shears out or comes north and amped. Years ago you could bet the house on a northward trend. Last few years it seems the sheared out weaker trends have been winning out. I see great meteorological arguments for both outcomes. one thing hasn’t changed, the outcome probably won’t come into focus until 72 hrs out.

When I think brutal cold, two periods come to mind, Dec ‘89 and Jan ‘94. The ‘89 outbreak had CMH hit a low of -18. Jan ‘94 -22 with areas in southeast OH hitting the minus 30s.

this I was thinking the same. 492dm line over head and I check the 2m temps and yea it's cold, but not what you would expect. Running through the gfs, I think the coldest temp here over the next couple weeks is -5 ish, and the Canadian, (which loves to exaggerate the cold in medium range), doesn't even have us going below zero. Duration might be the most notable aspect, not so much the severity of the cold itself. Been awhile since we had 2 weeks of continuous subfreezing temps.

yep, probably an i-80 nw ohio/chicago/detroit special followed up by a TN valley slider. That's how we roll here in the c'bus.

I’ll be posting a bit, just finishing some calculations

/\ this is the most optimistic post you will see from me

snowfall totals for gefs and eps through 360 are pretty paltry for the MA and I-95 in spite of a favorable 500mb look. Actually heavier for GL and OV in spite of a further east trough axis...but still nothing great here either. I think most likely we go from this coming warmth to cad for a week or so and then the trough exits stage right and we go back into a wavy pattern of warm/wet cold dry. Best hope of snow outside of some nw flow stuff is a surprise storm on a front transitioning of the warm to cold or vice versa. Something like that might not get picked up on models until inside of 150 hrs.

Rougher for them if they don't score anything in that pattern.

the big one for that was the massive HECS in January that buried the MA and NE, that one threw a slow moving conveyor belt of snow east to west across the state....we almost picked up a foot from that one and it was a complete surprise, even the morning of we were forecasted 1-3"

it would have been fun if this place and the internet existed back then....watching the Josh meltdowns would have been awesome. #darkjosh

Wow, no wonder you never mention that year....even Columbus beat Detroit 46".

And it’s not really so much about overall snow total for the winters but as you said, it seemed the snow cover persisted. We didn’t need to have 100 inches of snow because the snow we did get stuck around

That period really was amazing and is what really turned me into a snow weenie. It’s not my imagination or cherry picked memories. When we moved from the Philly area to Central Ohio in 1977 I was in 7th grade. We walked to school and in the winter months, the walk was through snow on a regular basis, sometimes with brutal cold. Those type of winters seemed to become normal as we would skate on our pond across the street build sled runs and dump water on them overnight so they would freeze up like a toboggan shoot and build ramps for our sleds to jump onto the frozen pond. When it did get warm enough during a January thaw, it often came with melting snow, fog, and drizzle, and that was what seemed to be abnormal… whereas winters since then it’s the snow and cold that has become abnormal. im just glad I was able to experience that. I hope someday my grandkids will get the same experience.

just messing with you....

You sound like an ole fashioned CMH snow weenie… …it’s happening Josh…you’re in denial right now but fear not, the next stage is acceptance

Saturn's ring going negative?

Ok that's embarrassing.... no wonder the snow gods hate me, I'm a damn ingrate.

I don't recall that much about '13-'14 here. Was that the year there was a big cutter that went up through eastern IN sometime between xmas and new years and that's what really kicked off winter? If so, we were on the warm side of that one, I remember that one was a kick in the nuts, especially since it was around or shortly after the holidays.